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It’s been exactly one year since the go-to method to find mileage runs died – the FareCompare Flyertalk tool. The folks at FareCompare claimed it would return and even had a “coming soon” notation earlier this year. That has since totally disappeared and repeated requests for information from them fell on silent ears. I have a feeling the airlines in some manner dissuaded them from bringing it back.

Readers ask me almost every week how I go about finding mileage runs these days and while I have no one method anymore, I’ll share my current list of resources.

  • Flyertalk’s Mileage Run Deals: Sorta goes without saying that this forum should be on your daily reading list if you’re on the hunt for a mileage run. It’s often the first place spectacular runs appear in the 2.0-4.0 cents-per-mile (CPM) range. The only problem, of course, is the fact the city pairs posted may be nowhere near you. I’ll often consider a positioning flight to get to the origin if it’s really a killer deal.
  • FareCompare’s Getaway Map: FareCompare left their map feature untouched (so far). It lists the lowest fares by month to worldwide destinations on a map with the “ability” to filter by airline. I say “ability” because it rarely works – the results often show fares from all airlines even if you only select one. Then, there’s the cumbersome task of zooming in and scrolling around the country (or world) to see the detail. I have found mileage run fares this way, though it annoys me.
  • ITA Software’s Matrix Airfare Search: If you attended FTU, you learned Ben’s method using ITA’s Matrix Airfare Search. Basically, you plug in your origin, designate your carrier and number of connections, and type in some cities you want to check. Below I’ve plugged in Reno to various East Coast cities on United with two or more connections wanting to see a calendar of the lowest fares for a zero-night stay.

Be sure to uncheck the “Allow airport changes” box or you’ll wind up with flights into Miami and out of Columbus, for example. And which cities to search? Well, I end up trying about seven at a time where I’ve historically known good fares have hit. If you get aggressive and search too many cities at once, you’ll often get a timeout error. Once you press “Search,” it’ll take you to the calendar of lowest fares from which you can click in for more detail.

  • ExpertFlyer’s Fare Information Search: Much along the lines of using ITA Software to check random cities, I use ExpertFlyer’s Fare Information Search to check all fares loaded for certain city pairs:

Again, I plug in cities that have historically had decent fares and also random “new” ones just for the hell of it. I typically pick major hubs or cities where Southwest has a presence, but I’ve come across decent fares in the past to cities you wouldn’t expect, such as Daytona Beach, Tucson and Saginaw. This method allows you to see the raw fare data and validity dates, sometimes not as obvious on ITA. Note: I subscribe to ExpertFlyer for $99/year, so I have unlimited queries for this purpose. It ends up being invaluable to me for access to each fare’s routing rules, not to mention EF’s other great features.

  • Wandering Aramean’s Lowest Fare Finder: Seth reports his data stream isn’t populating live fare data at the moment, but it by far is/will be the easiest method to find mileage runs akin to the old FareCompare Flyertalk tool. A free account allows you to search and sort in very similar fashion to the old FC tool:

Keep your eye on this tool – he mentions it might be back up and running again with live fares next month (at the earliest).

Many readers have also asked for specific help with their preferred airlines and origins and I’ll do my best to post those mileage runs as I find them.

Do you have other methods that work for you?

Related posts:

Mileage Running 101: How I Construct a Mileage Run Part 1

Mileage Running 101: How I Construct a Mileage Run Part 2

Finding Mileage Runs Without the FareCompare Tool

Posted by Darren | 12 Comments

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Thursday, August 30, 2012

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

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In other airline, hotel and travel industry news this week…

  • United Airlines announced they will add a segment onto the existing Washington Dulles to Dubai flight and continue to Doha, Qatar beginning May 1, 2012. The news release claims the flights will be operated with United’s International Premium Travel Experience Boeing 777s, but there’s still always a risk of getting an unconverted bird until all 777s have been refitted.
  • American Eagle has been selected by the U.S. Department of Transportation to begin daily service from Chicago O’Hare to both Sioux City and Waterloo, Iowa. It’s a part of the Essential Air Service program where the government subsidizes airlines to serve certain routes to smaller communities that would otherwise be unprofitable to fly. The carrier is planning to begin flights next spring using Embraer regional jets.
  • Virgin America’s size will now warrant the carrier to report on-time data for its flights to the DOT in 2012. ExpressJet Airlines will also be required to do the same, but they’ve been doing so voluntarily this year. Meanwhile, Atlantic Southeast and Mesa no longer have to report the stats, but Mesa says they’ll continue to report on a voluntary basis.
  • The International Air Transport Association (IATA) lowered its 2012 profit forecast for global airlines by nearly 29% this week. European carriers are expected to lose a collective $600 million next year in part due to the meltdown of the Euro. Carriers in North America are expected to post $2.1 billion in profits.
  • Airlines are asking the DOT to delay part of the new passenger protection rules that are scheduled to take effect January 24, 2012. Many carriers issued sworn affidavits saying they need at least another year to comply with the rule related to baggage fees and allowances on multi-carrier itineraries. Current system constraints and the inability to access a passenger’s previous flight from another carrier on the same itinerary are causing the headaches for IT staff.
  • The Australian Labor Party is backing Qantas unions in their desire to keep the airline Australian-owned and controlled. Legislation is being considered to strengthen the Qantas Sales Act that will “keep the majority ownership, operation and governance of (Australian) airlines in Australia.” A carrier spokeswoman warned, “Any proposed plans to change the act that restricts Qantas from doing business will not protect Australian jobs.”
  • Expedia and United Airlines have extended their agreement for another multi-year term. While not confirmed, the news blurb about it sounds like Expedia might soon be able to sell Economy Plus seats and other ancillary products. One of Expedia’s brands, Travelscape, is the current provider of hotel listings on United.com.

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In other airline, hotel and travel industry news this week…

  • The Transportation Security Administration has officially started a “trusted traveler” program this week. According to the TSA, “This pilot program will help assess measures designed to enhance security by placing more focus on pre-screening individuals who volunteer information about themselves prior to flying in order to potentially expedite the travel experience.” I was actually offered an invitation to participate in this program, but declined since it currently only covers domestic passengers flying out of Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas and Miami. I fully look forward to such a permanent program and will definitely apply.
  • Our air traffic control system here in the United States is totally antiquated with even Jeff Smisek, CEO of United Airlines, poking jabs at it. Eventually it will be satellite-based offering efficiency unmatched by current ground radar capabilities. The $2.1 billion enhancement is still underway, but the FAA this week has stated “software problems” exist that will delay full deployment. The NextGen system was scheduled to go into effect by the end of 2012, but now won’t likely be a reality until 2014.
  • Rising airfares are always a hot topic and the mainstream media is quick to note when fares increase or when airlines add additional surcharges, such as those seen around the holidays. We are still, however, paying relatively much less when looking at it from a historical perspective. A Wall Street Journal reporter notes, “Average domestic airfares, adjusted for inflation, have fallen 16% since 1995.” When demand for air travel falls, such as it did post-9/11, airfares are noticeably cheaper. There are still, of course, sales and periods of the year when prices are incredibly cheap (January & February), but we all should recognize just how inexpensive it remains to travel hugely far distances in a matter of hours. Do I like it when fares rise? Of course not, but if you really think of the incredibility of what air travel offers, a rise in airfare shouldn’t be such an earth-shattering shock.
  • American Airlines was largely in the news this week due to its nearly 40% drop in stock price and rumors over a possible bankruptcy filing. Also, as you might recall, the carrier placed one of the largest aircraft orders in history recently. I’ve read so many articles claiming “yes they should,” or “no they wont” file Chapter 11, but do any of us really know? It’s all speculation and I think had they filed back when many of the other majors did, they’d be posting profits akin to what Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are today. Once I hit million-miler status with United, I might likely jump ship and become loyal to American as they really impressed me this year.
  • Advertisements are everywhere. Just today inside the United Club at LAX I noticed a huge ad appearing on one wall. Medford airport in Oregon is looking for additional revenue through offering up the placement of ads on its control tower. Exposure would be significant both for people at the airport and those driving nearby as the picture in the article shows. Can’t we go anywhere without ads? Yes, you can just ignore them, but I’m tired of being bombarded by them. I absolutely love that Wimbledon has consistently disallowed ads appearing around the courts. It’s so refreshing. There is one brand seen… Rolex on the clock, but otherwise it’s a clean ad-free environment.
  • I seem to write about this every week, but it’s worth mentioning again. Qantas once again has cancelled and delayed flights this week due to labor unrest. I’ll give unions credit for championing in the benefits even we non-union workers enjoy, but I think the disruptions they cause in events such as this is just ridiculous. On a more positive note for Qantas, the carrier will begin daily Sydney to Dallas service – up from four times weekly – beginning in July 2012. The Boeing 747s on that route will feature the fully-flat Skybed seats in business class and Recaro Premium Economy seats.
  • It’s common for airlines to be fined for false or misleading advertising or failure to comply with government standards, but this is the first time I’ve read that an Online Travel Agency (OTA) got dinged. France has fined Expedia $484,000 for “misleading marketing practices.” Among the charges, France claims Expedia showed hotels as being fully booked when they weren’t, incorrectly displaying hotel phone numbers and advertising prices as promotional rates when they were just standard prices. Half a million dollars, though? Ouch!

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A web usability surveyor based in Amsterdam named Usabilla just published results detailing user experiences on airline, hotel and Online Travel Agency websites. Participants were asked to perform simple tasks, such as “where would you click to get your boarding pass,” and leave additional comments about layout and other site features or functions. The full report can be downloaded here, but I’ll sum up some of the findings below.

A total of 800 people took part in the study that specifically looked at the following websites:

Airlines: Many participants specifically called out they hated advertisements on airline websites and several remarked they’d prefer to see all-in pricing instead of “from” rates that often exclude taxes and fees. Delta won the best score for speed and accuracy for the “where would you click to get your boarding pass” question with KLM coming in last. Maybe because I’m so used to it, but one person said United has too much different info on the homepage and it should be simplified. I actually think United’s landing page is just about ideal.

Hotels: Here the survey takers were asked to click on things that made them trust the website and other items they liked and why. Many specifically called out the strength of the brand through their logo, as well as clear contact information and the legal mumbo jumbo found in the privacy policy and other areas. Things they liked included luxurious scenes in pictures, ease of navigation and clear identification of other hotel brands within the chain. Unpopular here were testimonials, social media buttons and a cluttered design. There was really no winner or loser here as the purpose wasn’t to rank the appeal or functionality of each site, but Hyatt got some praise for linking to their YouTube page. I don’t get it really, because most of the videos there are just plain cheesy.

Online Travel Agencies: For the OTAs, users were asked to click on things they liked and those that they would remove. Most popular of the likes was the search functionality, telephone contact numbers and popular destinations. Expedia’s ‘deals and offers’ were well received, but the similar category on other OTAs failed for whatever reason. It seems absolutely everyone hated the Facebook ‘Like’ & connection and find it a ridiculous thing to include. Also not well received were areas or ads promoting site functionality and “buttons” that are really advertisements. There’s also a love-hate relationship with Priceline’s William Shatner (30% clicked him for a thing they like, 23% for dislike) and Travelocity’s gnome (29% like, 19% dislike).

This study was rather limited in scope with just a couple of questions asked per website, but it was still interesting to read over and I’d be more keen to take this type of hands-on visual survey method over the “on a scale of 1 to 10” type.

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At the turn of the New Year, Expedia, the country’s most visited Online Travel Agency (OTA), pulled American Airlines flights from their site after American pulled themselves out of Orbitz, another OTA. In a rare show of solidarity with a competitor, Expedia didn’t like the cards being dealt to Orbitz, namely sign up for a direct-connect platform to access American’s flights & fares, or else “bu-bye.”

As of yesterday, however, American’s flights are back for sale on Expedia after signing a letter of intent committing to access American’s products via a modified direct connect technology in the next 12 months.

The technology in a nutshell bypasses the traditional Global Distribution Systems (GDSs) used by just about every travel agency (online or brick & mortar) out there. The GDS systems are rather archaic, and were initially developed by the airlines to facilitate ticket sales. The airlines pay fees to the GDSs on a segment basis, ranging anywhere from around $3 to upwards of $6 per reservation depending on the amount of flights in an itinerary, among other factors. Compound that by the sheer volume of reservations out there, and you can imagine how high these distribution costs are to the airlines.

It’s was a bold move by American to spearhead a potential industry changer in the way airline tickets are sold, and as the months have progressed, they really haven’t backed down. I would imagine the other airlines are peaked with interest, and are quietly appreciative of American’s first strike in shaking up a controversial legacy & costly booking system.

You still cannot book American on Orbitz, however, where the situation is a bit different. Travelport, the operator of Apollo, Galileo & Worldspan GDSs, has the largest controlling share of Orbitz, so their hand pretty much dictates how Orbitz proceeds. As it is, they provide incentives to the OTA by keeping American’s flights off-sale and by refusing to sign a direct-connect contract with the carrier.

While I can’t blame American or any airline in wanting to reduce distribution costs, it really comes down to how it impacts the traveling public. My subjective analysis would be that if most people price shop across multiple OTAs and/or airlines, the impact is negligible. Reality, however, might show a different result, and it has been the claim by GDSs that direct connect technology will do nothing but hurt consumers ability to choose and reduce transparency to the lowest fares.

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American Airlines is holding firm in their commitment to further the evolution of how and where the carrier’s tickets are shopped and sold. As I previously blogged, American is seeking to reduce distribution costs by steering away from the legacy global distribution system (GDS) model used by most online travel agencies (OTAs). New signs are emerging that show American is beginning to make headway in this battle.

Earlier this week, Priceline signed an agreement with American stating they will use the Direct Connect technology in the near future. The negotiations for this contract have likely been going on for some time given American’s ads directing traffic to Priceline (and Kayak). Also this week, American outted Vegas.com as being contracted to use the direct link, and it is being reported they’ve been using it for about five months already. Separately, US Airways and Expedia signed a good faith type of agreement whereby the carrier’s flights and ancillary services will continue to be offered exclusively through GDSs.

This led me to look at just how much traffic is steered to the OTAs, and I was able to find a recent summary revealing the most popular travel shopping websites in the United States for the week of January 15, 2011.

While the actual number of visits isn’t revealed by website, it is still interesting to see how the “big four” (Expedia, Priceline, Travelocity, and Orbitz) compare against each other. The spread between number one Expedia and number two Priceline is significant, and allows the former to maintain its majority share consistently week to week. Also, the previous period’s results showed Orbitz & Travelocity switched in positions, so I bet that is a constant week-to-week occurrence.

I’ll be keeping my eye on these figures in the coming months, and likely post any major moves I notice.

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Since I last posted about the battle between American Airlines and Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), an even bigger player entered the mix. Sabre, the global distribution system (GDS) birth child of American in the 1960s, initially downgraded American’s flights in their displays and eliminated discounts to the carrier last week, but American won an injunction in court to postpone that disruption.

While they aren’t directly naming and claiming allegiance with the OTA fight, Sabre is critical of American’s Direct Connect technology and also claims they are withholding information necessary to pass through to consumers. Their contract with American expires in September, and before the court stopped them, had begun altering American’s availability displays in the system and eliminated American’s booking fee discount.

The situation with Orbitz and Expedia seemed to be more of an annoyance for American, and they simply issued the standard FAQ to satisfy public concern over the news arriving in the mainstream. They even went so far as to directly include the issue on Internet advertisements. Yes, they do have the responsibility to respond and issue statements and releases, but I guess I’m most amazed at the continued spin. And not just from American.

The heart of the matter is the fact that the industry is changing. The GDSs are threatened by new technology that will make them obsolete, and American just happens to be the first carrier to substantially challenge that history. Also, Sabre is the GDS market-leader around the world, and claims 31.5% of the market share here in the United States according to one recent survey. Likely too large of an impact to sales, the entrance of Sabre to the distribution battle got American running to the courts.

While I suppose this remains a relative behind-the-scenes battle to most, I am particularly fascinated with it and will continue to post developments in the coming days and weeks.

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My interest remains high watching a little battle unfold in the travel industry regarding airline ticket sales and distribution channels. As I blogged about previously, American pulled its flights from Orbitz after the Online Travel Agency (OTA) refused to connect directly to American’s availability, thereby skirting the traditional Global Distribution Systems (GDS). This, then, would significantly reduce the fees American would pay on a per segment basis to the GDS systems. It would then also likely require the OTAs to install costly technology capable of supporting a direct connection, while losing out on lucrative credits for using the GDS systems. American wins, OTAs and GDSs lose.

After the Orbitz incident last month, Expedia, another major OTA, took sides with its competitor and made it less transparent for users to find American’s flights on their site.  They took it a step further a mere week later by pulling all of American’s flights completely out of their system when their contract with the carrier expired at the stroke of midnight on December 31st.

The travel industry is abuzz over these developments, so without knowing the inside scoop on the contract terms, fee structures and development costs, all we can do is speculate. My best guess is that given the incredibly low margins an OTA likely makes on selling a single ticket, any kind of hit in profitability, reduction of incentive credits, or a major technology overhaul would be catastrophic, so I have to think their ability to compromise is at a minimum. At the same time, the fees American and all carriers pay to hold and confirm seat inventory and schedules on the GDSs has been a source of angst for the carriers for years. Who is really to blame here, and whose side would you take?

I had also mentioned in my previous post that some of the controversy surrounds the belief that by American requiring the direct connection, their fares would be more difficult to compare to the other major carriers and consumers would be the losers. While I can agree with this in theory, in reality Southwest Airlines operates like that today and has obviously been very successful. That said, I may have to retract my previous prediction that we would again see American’s flights and fares back in Orbitz relatively quickly. It still surprises me, though, that American is willing to gamble that the 1 in 5 people who use OTAs based on a recent survey will automatically know to book with American directly now. So far, though, American is claiming their ticket sales have increased from last year.

And so, I watch with peaked interest and will likely blog more about this in the future. Of particular interest to me is the evolution of the GDSs and how the money flows, so stay tuned for more.

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