Joe Sharkey At Large

The numbers keep adding up, or down. Air travel is off sharply, and the airlines continue to shrink their capacity.

American Airlines reported its December operating results today, and its competitors will be showing similar trends.

At American, revenue passenger miles (a basic measure of traffic) were down 9.6 percent domestically and, in a trend that really has U.S. airlines worried because they staked so much on foreign capacity expansion, down 5.7 percent internationally. The comparisons are to Dec. 2007.

American’s domestic seat capacity also is off sharply, down 11.8 percent domestically in December — and down 3.2 percent internationally.

American Eagle, meanwhile. flew 13 percent fewer passenger miles in November, with 13.5 percent fewer seats.

United Airlines also reported its December numbers today. Domestic passenger miles were down 9.5 percent (and 12 percent internationally). There were 13.8 percent fewer domestic seats on United in December, and 9.6 percent fewer on its international routes.

Continental Airlines had similar results, with domestic revenue miles down 9.3 percent (and down 4.9 percent internationally) and seat capacity down 12.1 percent domestically and down 5.6 percent internationally.

Watch the other airline December numbers as they come in. The future shape (short-term at least) of our air-travel system is coming into clear focus.

Increasingly, it is going to be less convenient to get from here to there, by any measure. The big question is can airlines maintain current fare levels if passenger demand continues to drop as it has been in these last two tumultuous months?

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Airlines never really admit they’re at fault for anything. Oh, if they get jammed up in bad publicity they’ll eventually put out a statement expressing their regret that some deluded passenger may have taken offense for some perceived grievance.

The current classic example: The apology and statement by AirTran Airways about the nine Muslim family members (all but one native U.S. citizens) who were hauled off a flight at Reagan airport and humiliated because a hysterical fellow-passenger reported hearing one of them speculating to another about where the safest place to sit on an airplane was. (Answer: There ain’t one, if it’s going down.)

AirTran describes this horror as “involving verbal comments made by a passenger and overheard by other passengers.” You will note that so far, AirTran has not specified what these “verbal comments” were. (And of course, reporters have not demanded that AirTran answer the question: Given that you made a federal case out of this, who specifically said specifically what, according to your passenger informant, and in direct quotes please?)

But people involved in the conversation say it involved one man commenting that he was sitting in a seat by the “jets.”

Air marshals were informed and the alarm bells rang at Keystone Kops Central. Emergency! Flight scuttled. Presumed perpetrators, including three children, were “detained for interrogation,” AirTran says.

Oops, sorry, no security threat. Just hysteria from some passenger who evidently thinks he’s a Junior G-Man in the air and needs to be informing the authorities whenever his mind is, uh, troubled.

Here’s the money quote in the statement issued by AirTran:

“Later in the day six of the nine detained passengers approached the customer service counter and asked to be rebooked to Orlando. At the time, the airline had not been notified by the authorities that the passengers were cleared to fly and would not rebook them until receiving said clearance. One passeneger in the party became irate and made inappropriate comments, The local law enforcement officials came over and escorted the passengers away from the gate podium.” [Italics mine]

Let’s consider the thinking behind that official statement. The Muslim passengers had been insulted, humiliated, detained — and then cleared of any wrongdoing whatsoever. Later, AirTran says in its apology, one of them becomes “irate” while trying to rebook and makes “inappropriate” comments — and they call the cops on him again!

“Irate” to an officious gate agent may be “angry,” or “upset” or even “insistent” to the rest of us. And what in the world is an “inappropriate” comment, as defined by some gate agent who represents an airline that already has got itself involved in an ugly incident involving the public humiliation of this family?

Hey, I got one.

[Update: I’m amazed at how reporters on this story let AirTran get away with not specifying exactly what the “inappropriate comments” were. In the reporting, it’s apparent that reporters are simply not asking the AirTran flack to specify just what it is the man said that got him and his extended family hauled off. Here’s the comment the AirTran flack was allowed to get away with:

“At the end of the day, people got on and made comments they shouldn’t have made on the airplane, and other people heard them. Other people heard them, misconstrued them. It just so happened these people were of Muslim faith and appearance. It escalated, it got out of hand and everyone took precautions.”

So what did the guy say that caused all of this commotion? And who defines “inappropriate?” Didn’t George Carlin make a pretty good point when he demanded to know just what the words were that couldn’t be said on the airwaves?

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…in the immortal words of comedian Ron White.

By now, you know all about the Muslim family of 9 — all but one U.S.-born citizens — who were hauled off a flight after some a hysteric or two among the fellow passengers overheard a couple of them talking about where the safest place to sit in a plane is.

Here’s the Reuters update on that AirTran embarrassment.

Reminds me a little of the infamous Syrian terrorists on a Northwest flight from Detroit to Los Angeles in June 2004. Remember, some hysterics among the passengers decided that the “Middle Eastern-appearing” men were acting suspiciously, as if they were “probing” the flight for an opportunity to do evil. One of the passengers in fact made something of a career blogging and doing TV appearances about her near-death experience.

The suspicious activity done by the suspects included seeming restless, talking to each other in small groups, and not keeping their seats all the time.

Hey, wait a minute. That also describes the way, say, a bunch of musicians who know each other might behave on a long flight.

Which it turns out they were. A backup band headed to a casino gig near San Diego to play for one Nour Mehama, who is billed as “Syria’s Wayne Newton.” (And who knew Syria would have its very own Wayne Newton, what a world, what a world).

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We’re barely 18 hours into the New Year, and already I have a candidate for the dumbest travel-related idea of 2009. (So far.)

Stipulated: We need more and better train service in this country. You bet.

But a luxury train to transport casino gamblers between New York and Atlantic City? Surely not, you say.

Yep. It starts Feb. 6, thanks to a venture involving New Jersey Transit, Amtrak, and a handful of casinos looking for new ways to literally haul the suckers in.

The casinos say they’re mostly funding the venture under contract with the railroads that included having New Jersey Transit buy eight double-deck luxury cars for $11 million each. A New Jersey casino development agency also put money into the pot.

New Jersey Transit and Amtrak say the venture won’t cost taxpayers any extra money — hey, the casinos promise to pay! However the money and funding ultimately work out, I do not know anyone who is making any long-term bets on the fortunes of Atlantic City casinos, which have been struggling and which tend to attract a low-roller market even in good times.

This Bloomberg news story of two days ago provides a stark look at just how bad things are for Atlantic City’s 30-year-old casino industry.

But the fact is that we are devoting crucial public-transit resources providing fancy train service so all of those slot-machine-cranking sad-sacks who make Atlantic City the very special place it is don’t have to ride the bus from New York.

What a country!

An AP story today proclaims the news, without bothering to look at the financing, that starting Feb. 6, the new service, called the Atlantic City Express Service (”Aces,” get it?) will begin operating between New York and Atlantic City, with a stop in Newark (whoopee!).

The service is already over a year behind schedule, incidentally. Initially, it is planning to operate on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays.

The gamblers’ express will be on double-deck train cars “outfitted with leather seats, a private lounge and food and beverage kiosks,” the AP enthuses, adding: “First-class passengers will receive food and beverage service,” which I presume means free grub and booze in English.

The round-trip coach fare is $100, and $150 for first class.

You won’t read salient financial details in the AP story, which is predictably disinterested in who’s actually paying for this wonder, and who might get stuck with the huge bill if things don’t work out. And alas, New Jersey has never been particularly blessed with aggressive news reporting, and the state’s only ambitious newspaper, the Star-Ledger of Newark, has been slashing staff and threatening to close its doors.

New Jersey Transit and Amtrak will operate the service. The New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority is also “partially” funding the venture.

Oh, and 75 percent of the seats on the Boardwalk Boondoggle Express are reserved for customers of the participating casinos.

Our air-travel system is shrinking to the point where a one-day business trip is a disappearing concept; our highways are crumbling; our commuter and corridor trains are packed to overflowing while most of the country lacks viable rail service entirely — and these geniuses are diverting public-transit resources to a bunch of casinos near the ass-end of the Jersey shore.

Wanna bet on whether this ends in tears and red ink?

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—How bad is the tourism business in Hawaii, which has been clobbered by airline cutbacks as well as the miserable economy? According to OAG, the total number of scheduled airline seats to Hawaii is down 16.2 percent during the period from December through February, compared with the same period a year ago. Great hotel bargains in Hawaii, if you can get there.

—Speaking of hotels, President-elect Obama and his family just moved into the swank but very public Hay-Adams Hotel across from the White House so the kids could start school on time in Washington. The Obamas were not allowed to bunk at Blair House, the official residence across from the White House (and within the White House tight security zone.) The Bush people say that Blair House is “booked” and unavailable to the new president. Now, my regard is, let’s say, limited for the so-called Washington press corps (they love that word “corps,” like the Radio City Rockettes) — but still, why haven’t any of them demanded an answer to the obvious question: “Booked” for what? Who the hell is using Blair House all these days and nights, and what for, and at what cost? How is this any different5 from doling out the Lincoln Bedroom? Looks to me like party-time for the exiting Bushies and their pals takes precedence over security and a degree of convenience for the new president. Party on!

—BIG nationwide fare sale announced today by Southwest Airlines, for travel Jan. 15-April 30. Airlines have been piling up cash with the bonanza in collapsing oil prices, but most of them are still adding water to the proverbial soup and jacking up customers with higher fares. Let’s hope some of them follow Southwest’s example. And they may, because the front-office folks are looking very nervously at the numbers that show air-travel demand falling off a cliff, with no sign yet that it’ll recover after the normal post-holiday slack period. This is not going to be pretty.

—Am I the only one who thinks the American-TV version of “The Office” totally sucks, except for Rainn Wilson’s brilliant Dwight Schrute and a couple of the minor supporting characters? And while we’re on the subject of entertainment, I admit Tropic Thunder was a movie for cracked 14-year-olds (I liked it enough, but my wife left the room). But Tom Cruise’s performance as the fat, foul-mouthed, crypto-psychotic studio chief was hilarious. Don’t count that guy out.

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“RINCON CHIAROSCURO”

Tucson, Arizona, twilight, New Year’s Eve 2008

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Airlines have so reduced their routes and seating capacities that the travel story of the new year is going to be the higher costs and sharply increased difficulties of getting there from here.

Even as fuel costs have tumbled, airlines are tightening the screws on the flying public, which they figure will now put up with just about anything. (Though once we have a look at passenger traffic data for December, we’ll see just how much air-travel demand is falling, and will continue to fall in 2009).

Here’s an example of the current mess: I need to get from Tucson to the ridiculously named George Bush “Intercontinental” Airport, preferably early in the morning of Jan. 7, in time for a 10.30 meeting at the airport.

That’s about 900 miles, incidentally.

No can do. Instead, I’ll need to fly in the day before and spend the night.

Fares? On Orbitz.com just a few minutes ago, here was the range among various airlines for that one-way flight (all requiring stops): $1,124 to $489.

Southwest Airlines, not listed on Orbitz, came in at a more sensible $226, but it requires a stop in Los Angeles and it arrives not at Houston Intergalactic (oops, I mean “Intercontinental”) but at Houston Hobby Airport.

Why not consider the option of taking the train, as so many people are suggesting these days?

Ha-ha: The best Amtrak can do is get me from Tucson to Houston on Jan. 8, and the trip requires 26 and a half hours. The fare is $115 for a seat, and $891 if you want a sleeping compartment.

And how about the bus? Well, I can board a good old Greyhound at 6:30 a.m. on the 6th and arrive in Houston a mere 26 hours later, after transferring buses in El Paso and again in Dallas.

And sorry, but I can’t get it out of my mind that during the summer, shortly after Greyhound began a marketing campaign saying there is no “air rage” on the bus, a lunatic on a Greyhound bus in Canada literally chopped the head off a sleeping passenger.

Hey, if that can happen in peace-loving Canada, no way I’m taking my chances in the middle of the night in El Paso.

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—I came across this letter on a humor forum on the aviation Web site ProPilot World. It’s purported to be real — a child’s note to a pilot — and it expresses everything we can hope for in the new year.

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[Sunset, Christmas Eve 2008, Tucson, Arizona]