Joe Sharkey At Large

Today’s federal appeals court ruling overturning a New York state law requiring airlines to ensure basic health and sanitation standards for stranded passengers (see my previous post) brought renewed calls in the Senate to get the stalled federal passengers’ rights bill moving.

Here’s a joint statement today from Sens. Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, and Olympia Snowe, a Maine Republican. [The boldface is theirs.]

“SENATORS BOXER AND SNOWE RENEW CALL FOR FEDERAL PASSENGERS BILL OF RIGHTS FOLLOWING COURT RULING

“Washington, DC—Following a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals today to strike down a New York State law designed to protect air travelers, U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) said it was more important than ever to move forward at the federal level with their Airline Passengers Bill of Rights.

Senator Boxer said, “The Court’s decision today reinforces the need to move forward at the federal level to protect the flying public. Those of us who travel frequently know that sometimes delays cannot be helped. But there is no reason that passengers should ever be trapped on airplanes for hours without food, safe drinking water or functioning restrooms. It has been almost a year since the Commerce Committee recognized the need take action and passed the Boxer-Snowe Passengers Bill of Rights as part of the FAA Bill. It is long past time to get this bill to the Senate floor.”

“Today’s decision places the onus on the federal government to take immediate action to pass our Passenger Bill of Rights bill,” Senator Snowe said. “With the summer travel season approaching, Americans nationwide will face the prospect of endless delays and no guarantee of service – the airline industry has proven its inability to protect passenger rights. Congress must put into place some sort of minimum standard. I would urge the leadership in to Senate to bring to the floor the Passenger Bill of Rights.”

The Senate Commerce Committee passed the Boxer-Snowe Airline Passengers Bill of Rights as part of the FAA Reauthorization Bill in May 2007. The legislation ensures that travelers are not unnecessarily trapped on airplanes or deprived of food, potable water or adequate restroom facilities.

The language included by the Committee also requires air carriers to develop and submit to the Secretary of Transportation their own plan, incorporating medical considerations, to ensure that passengers are provided a clear time frame under which they will be permitted to deplane a delayed aircraft. The Secretary would be required to make the plans available to the public. In the absence of such a plan, passengers would have the option of safely deplaning a grounded aircraft three hours after the plane door has closed. This option would be provided every three hours that the plane continues to sit on the ground.

The Senate cannot move forward on the legislation until the Finance and Commerce Committees resolve the funding issues in the FAA Reauthorization. Senators Boxer and Snowe today wrote to the Chairs of the Senate Finance and Senate Commerce Committees, urging them to act promptly to get the FAA bill to the Senate floor.”

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The New York State passengers’ bill of rights law was stuck down today by a federal appeals court which found that “requiring airlines to provide food, water, electricity and restrooms to passengers during lengthy ground delays” violates the landmark 1978 Airline Deregulation Act.

The ruling, which is expected to be challenged in the Supreme Court, reversed a decision by a U.S. District Court that upheld the New York law, which took effect Jan. 1.

The New York law was the first state legislation addressing airlines’ responsibilities toward passengers stranded on idled airplanes for three hours or more. It basically said that airlines must provide adequate food and water and working toilets to passengers stranded on parked planes, unable to get to a gate. The law provided for penalties of up to $1,000 per passenger for violations.

At least a dozen other state legislatures are considering their own versions of passengers’ rights laws. A federal version of a passengers rights law is currently stalled in Congress.

The key argument made by the airline industry, which vehemently opposes the legislation, is that the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act (ADA) specifically prohibits states from interfering in airline “service.”

Proponents of passengers’ rights laws like the one in New York argued that the ADA prohibitions against state interference in airline “service” do not preclude states from ensuring that airlines provide basic passenger health and comfort provisions, including adequately working toilets, for stranded passengers.

However, today’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit states that “requiring airlines to provide food, water, electricity and restrooms to passengers during lengthy ground delays does relate to the service of an air carrier and therefore falls within the express terms of the ADA’s preemption provision.”

The Air Transport Association (ATA), the airline-industry trade group that had filed suit to challenge the New York law, hailed today’s appeals court ruling. In a statement, the trade group said:

“The court’s decision vindicates the position of ATA and the airlines — that airline services are regulated by the federal government and that a patchwork of laws by states and localities would be impractical and harmful to consumer interests. This clear and decisive ruling sends a strong message to other states that are considering similar legislation.”

A blog (published by a New York law firm) that tracks civil-rights opinions of the Second Circuit appeals court stated that “this case may be on a rocket ship to the Supreme Court” because other federal appeals courts in different cases have had different interpretations of what constitutes airline “service.”

That blog (http://secondcircuitcivilrights.blogspot.com) says: “When the Courts of Appeals around the country disagree on the interpretation of a federal statute, the Supreme Court usually intervenes to iron out those differences. This case is a perfect candidate for Supreme Court review.”

[Michael N. Gianaris, the New York state assemblyman who drafted the law, told the New York Times "City Room" blog today that the appeals court ruling was predictably pro-corporation. He said:

“One would struggle to find examples as outrageous as those faced by passengers on these planes. Even with the most minimal of requirements, the court has sided with the company.”

To get a feel for how people think about this, check out the comments following the City Room item.]

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—The trouble with guns on an airplane is they sometimes go off when you least expect it. Here is the TSA’s statement on the incident:

“March 23 — A US Airways pilot, who is a member of the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) program, accidentally discharged his firearm while airborne today (US Airways #1536, Airbus A319, Denver – Charlotte). The flight landed safely in Charlotte and was never in danger.

TSA and the Federal Air Marshals Service take this matter seriously and an investigation is underway. The pilot was authorized to be in possession of the weapon and he completed the appropriate training.

This pilot last requalified on Nov. 7, 2007.”

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Airline delays and meltdowns could be getting to the point where they don’t qualify as news. Still, the business and personal lives of an awful lot of people are being routinely messed up.

It’s snowy and icy in Chicago today. Already, cancellations are piling up at O’Hare, where 767 departures and arrivals had been canceled as of 4:30 p.m. CDT, according to FlightStats.com

Says the Chicago Tribune, quoting the Chicago Department of Aviation, airlines “‘proactively canceled flights to minimize impact on their customers.”

Try reading that sentence again. I suppose it makes sense — but this is how we “minimize impact” these days, by not flying the airplane!

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[Above: The A380, configured for 555. Now add almost 400 more seats.]

Several years ago, I heard from aviation sources that the then-still-unveiled Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet was in fact designed to carry nearly 1,000 people in an all-coach configuration. That was back when the media were all dutifully referring to the double-decker behemoth as a “550-seat” plane, which in fact is roughly in the seat-range that most of its buyers have configured their A380s at. (In fact, usually fewer).

But it was obvious to me that while most would fly in three-class configurations, some of these planes would ultimately be used at full capacity, sans frills. And so, it is suggested in this speculative report by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, it may well soon do so. Emirates announced today that it is starting a new low-cost carrier.

Emirates has 58 A380s on order. Ergo …

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Delays and cancellations snarled Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston Intercontinental airports today.

Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport was virtually shut down by storms.

By late afternoon, other major hubs such as Chicago O’Hare were reporting excessive delays, the result of both bad weather and the effect from the massive congestion around Dallas and, to a lesser extent, Houston.

It should be anticipated that the ripple-effect will slow down flight operations at Kennedy, Newark and other major East Coast hubs starting early tonight.

Complications from the Dallas mess, which chiefly affects American Airlines, are expected to ripple through the national air-traffic control system for days as American and other airlines struggle to get canceled and diverted airplanes, and their crews, back into place in their schedules.

As of 5 p.m. CDT, an amazing 1,064 of the total 1,914 flights scheduled for the entire day and night at Dallas had been canceled, according to the updates on FlightStats.com. Additionally, American Airlines diverted at least 100 flights to other airports as thunderstorms disrupted air traffic.

At Houston, 556 of the total 1,606 departures and arrivals scheduled for today and tonight have already been canceled as of 4 p.m. CDT.

This sort of event is usually a recipe for stranded passengers sitting on tarmacs for long periods of time.

[Update, 7.45 p.m. EDT. Kate Hanni's indefatigable Coalition for an Airline Passengers' Bill of Rights is already getting phone calls from stranded passengers or their relatives. For example, at least three commercial planes were diverted from Dallas to Sheppard Air Force Base, which is also the municipal airport in Wichita Falls, Texas. Airport employees delivered pizza to the diverted passengers.]

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Advisory: It’s going to take American and other airlines affected by this mess at least a day to get its planes and crews back into position. That means flights all over the country will be affected. Make sure to check on flight status before going to the airport.

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Might it be too early to speculate on what domestic air travel may be like this summer? Perhaps not:

Summer air travel is gonna suck! It’s gonna suck SO BAD!!!

Sorry about the yelling. Channeling Sam Kinison there.

But really, it’s going to be just awful. The only possible mitigating factor is that so many Americans will be utterly bummed out by the U.S. economy that they’ll stay home in droves. Not likely, though.

Delta Air Lines today supplied some new hints of what’s ahead. This comes just after major airlines sneaked in the fourth big across-the-board domestic fare hike this year (and by the way, I know they’re not getting together in a big secret room and colluding on fixing fares. That would be wrong! But I swear, the recent fare increases do seem to have the reflect the same result.)

Delta said today it was cutting another 5 percent off domestic capacity this summer. By summer, 40 percent of Delta’s seat capacity will be on international routes, where the profits are better.

And that’s going to be a trend. At the end of last year, projections were that the major airlines would probably cut domestic seat capacity by an additional 3-4 percent this year (after a nearly 10 percent reduction last year). Now I am hearing estimates that domestic seat capacity on the major airlines might drop by as much as 10 percent this year.

Naturally, the news accounts are leading with Delta planning to cut 2,000 jobs, which is bad news — but doesn’t nearly have the effect on most of us that widening capacity reductions will have, even with fare hikes continuing.

Last year, domestic airlines racked up an average load factor of about 80 percent. That means 80 percent of available seats were sold, and it further means that on most flights, every single seat was full.

Last summer, load factors were close to 90 percent, incidentally. You saw the cascade of delays, cancellations, diverted flights and instances of passengers stuck for long hours on tarmacs.

That just gets worse this year. What little advice I can offer is: Book early if you have plans.

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Northwest joined in the round of airline fare hikes, making it likely it will stick. Legally, airlines are not allowed to collude on fares because it would constitute price fixing, but they all seem to be marching and matching to the same tune these days …

Here’s an update — with some good advice and analysis — from Rick Seaney, the CEO of FareCompare.com

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ALL LEGACY AIRLINES MATCH UNITED INCREASE: WILL IT STICK?

By RICK SEANEY

Saturday, March 15, 2008 11:03pm CDT —

Earlier this evening in the 5:00pm EDT domestic U.S. airfare distribution Northwest Airlines completed the matching of the unprecedented $4 to $50 roundtrip increase initiated by United Airlines late Thursday evening.

Northwest Airlines had been last to match on several of the past increase attempts and their matching tonight marks the 4^th increase by the legacy airlines in consecutive weeks and the eighth attempt at an increase in 2008 (six – including this increase –“successful”).

Tonight Northwest Airlines completed what can only be described as the most broad based single domestic U.S. airfare increase since I began closely tracking airfares in 2002.

United had attempted on January 11^th, 2008 to increase the fuel surcharge from what was then $20 roundtrip to the then unprecedented level of $50 roundtrip (an increase of $30 roundtrip) — which was then the largest single increase we have tracked — but that particular increase attempt fell apart when Continental Airlines bailed out. It subsequently took an additional 5 weeks with incremental increases of $10 roundtrip (every week or so) to get to the current $50 fuel surcharge level by mid February – That fuel surcharge increase attempt in mid January pales in comparison to this particular airfare hike.

Most of the U.S. airlines continue to be upbeat about travel demand (short term) and have been churning out more revenue per passenger in the first two months of 2008 than the same time period last year, but there is no doubt airlines must be fidgeting with their worry beads as the 2008 economic forecast continues to slide and the seemingly unending march of oil prices continues through low $100’s per barrel and possibly beyond.

Most airlines had been on a “financial roll” up to the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2007, when they were blindsided y fuel increases that stopped their momentum in its tracks.

What are the airlines choices in a $140 barrel of oil environment and looming economic downturn?

Well, it is pretty simple and not very pretty for anyone involved, airlines and passengers alike:

· Airlines can continue to daub the wound by increasing airfares every week (or so) until corporate and leisure passengers significantly begin to push back

· Ground a significant portion of the most unprofitable flights (they have already been reducing either capacity or growth significantly in the past few years)

· Spin off or divest assets (frequent flyer programs, maintenance operations, …)

· Merge (not likely to help in the short term)

· Combination of all these

What can passengers do?

Unfortunately travelers better prepare themselves for more inconvenience and packed planes (if it is possible to be more packed) and higher prices for the foreseeable future. Airlines will continue to be promote deals, competition will foster deals in certain cities and travelers must be willing to be more flexible, by traveling on the cheapest days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday and choosing the times of day and paths less traveled.

Prediction

I am predicting this increase will “stick” for a few reasons:

Demand continues to be firm for the moment

• United rolled back a few of the smallest increases tonight ($4 and $8) which were mostly overlapping with lower cost airlines, but did not touch the much higher $20, $30 and $50 roundtrip increases
• The legacy airlines were swift to match what is a relatively complex – laddered – increase without much hesitation
• They need the additional revenue to offset the highest jet fuel prices in history”"
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… But Will It Hold ?

You can never tell for sure on a weekend whether any new round of fare hikes initiated by an airline at week’s end will stick through Monday. Sometimes a spoiler will back out and then everybody runs for the hills. But looming $110-a-barrel oil has made the airlines less skittish in that regard.

The latest fare hike, another big one, is sticking so far, says Tom Parsons, the CEO of Bestfares.com. On Thursday, United filed a series of higher fares, from a $10 round-trip increase on short flights to $50 round-trip on flights over 1,500 miles. Continental followed the next day, and now American, Delta and US Air have too. Northwest — which has been a spoiler in the past, but recently has tended to go along — hasn’t yet joined in. But the weekend is early.

Here is the latest from Parsons:

“” All Major Airlines Raise Airfares Except Northwest. Is This Fare Hike A Bust?

On the evening of March 13, 2008, United Airlines raised both leisure and business domestic airfares by $10 round-trip on flights up to 500 air miles, $20 on flights 501 to 1,000 air miles [ed. note: mileage measured each way on a round trip]; $30 on flights 1,001 to 1,500 air miles; and a whopping $50 round-trip on domestic flights over 1,500 air miles …

On Friday March 14, 2008 Continental Airlines was the first major airline to match United Airlines airfare hike. “Today American Airlines, Delta Airlines and US Airways also jumped on board. The only holdout of the major airlines NOT to match is United Airlines airfare increase is Northwest Airlines.

“Northwest Airlines has been the spoiler on airfare increases many times in the past” says Tom Parsons, CEO and Founder of Bestfares.com, an internet travel website that tracks airfare changes and travel industry trends. It does not mean that Northwest won’t match these fare hikes tomorrow but as of today Northwest offers the cheapest business and leisure airfares up to $50 less than their competitor. “If Northwest elects not to match this aggressive airfare hike by Sunday March 16, 2008, this could force the other five legacy airlines to rapidly descend their new higher airfares” adds Parsons.

“If there is any good news for travelers, America now has many routes served by the low cost carriers. Due to the competitive nature of the airline industry in most instances, the major airlines are forced to offer lower competitive airfares on these routes. When comparing airfares in nearby competitive markets that are serviced by low cost carriers and comparing nearby alternative airports to non competitive markets some airfares can be better than half price” …

“It should also be noted that since December 18, 2007, the major airlines had already successfully raised both leisure and business airfares by $70 roundtrip by either raising airfares or fuel surcharges. If this increase is matched by American, Delta, Northwest and US Airways, travelers flying over 1,500 airmiles on non-competitive routes will be paying as much as $120 roundtrip more on the same routes in less than three short months. Listed below are the airfare hikes and fuel surcharge increases the major airlines have made since December 18, 2007.

(1) Week of December 20, 2007: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class fares from $10 roundtrip to $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $10 roundtrip.

(2) Week of January 7, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares by $10 roundtrip. Fuel surcharges still remain at $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $20 roundtrip.

(3) Weekend of January 24, 2008: Major airlines double fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class airfares from $20 to $40 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $40 roundtrip.

(4) Weekend of February 22, 2008: Major airlines raise airfares on both leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. $40 fuel surcharge still in place. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $50 roundtrip.

(5) Weekend of February 29, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $60 roundtrip.

(6) Weekend of March 7, 2008: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges from $40 to $50 roundtrip. Total airfare increase with airfare hikes and fuel surcharges since December 18, 2007, $70 roundtrip.

(7) March 14, 2008: United & Continental Airlines raised both leisure and business domestic airfares by $10 roundtrip on flights up to 500 air miles, $20 on flights 501 to 1000 air miles, $30 on flights 1001 to 1500 air miles, and a whopping $50 roundtrip on domestic flights over 1,500 air miles one-way. On March 15, 2008 American Airlines, Delta Airlines and US Airways matched the new fare hike. …”

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(Top: The New Gulfstream 650; bottom: the Citation X)

There’s a big, pretty full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal today for the in-development Gulfstream 650 business jet. And what a beauty it is, just in pure terms of design. (Please, no scolding letters from save-the-planeters. The last business jet I hitchhiked on crashed in a Brazilian rain forest, and I am abundantly aware of the multiple ironies involved.)

But there’s also a story in the New York Sun (breathlessly linked to by, who else, Drudge) that makes it sound like the new Gulfstream jet will be the fastest thing beneath the sound barrier.

Ain’t exactly so. Cessna’s popular Citation X (pronounced “X” and not “Ten”) , introduced 12 years ago, is far less roomy and has about half of the projected 7,000-mile range of the new G650 (and is also well under half the projected $60 million cost for the new Gulfstream) — but it flies at essentially the same max speed: The Gulfstream will be able to hit a max of Mach 0.925, compared with the Mach 0.92 max speed of the Citation X –  just under the sound barrier.

Bragging rights to the nearly supersonic speed (but not actually supersonic, which is a huge leap) are a main reason the Citation X has been such a hot seller, despite a somewhat more cramped cabin than other jets in its model segment.

Besides, by the time the new Gulfstream starts coming off production lines in four years, an under-development new supersonic business jet might well be on the market.

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