Travelers are pushing back against lousy airline service and virtually weekly anti-competitive far hikes. It’s now so obvious that there is a significant falloff in air travel that even the bumptious Air Transport Association, invincible defender of the indefensible, is copping to the prospect that “slightly fewer passengers” will fly this summer.
Let’s cut through the PR palaver and look at the numbers. The airline trade group forecast, which uses very optimistic advance data, is that domestic travel will be off 2 percent this summer, which USA Today this morning correctly points out would be the biggest seasonal falloff in air travel since the summer after 9/11.
(The schoolmarms who write those USA Today sub-heads, ever ameliorative, importune all of us here in the USA to “Pack your patience. Airlines predict delays and congestion.”)
Well, this is being written from my outpost in the Sonoran desert, with a sky full of sun. I predict light and warmth.
[Update: While the airlines are hollering about fuel, they sure are using a lot less of it. The demand for jet fuel in the United States fell in April to the lowest level in five years for that month, according to the American Petroleum Institute, in a report today by Reuters. While there were a lot of flight cancellations in April, led by the American Airlines maintenance fiasco, that wasn't enough to fully explain the trend The oil trade group said that April was the sixth straight month that jet fuel use fell, Reuters says.]
Meanwhile, Doug Steenland, the man who helped further demoralize Northwest Airlines’ hardworking pilots, flight attendants and other employees, while blissfully packing his pension package, warns that the imminent Delta takeover of Northwest (and please, colleagues, let us stop referring to this event as a “merger”) will mean still higher fares and a shrinking (domestic) air transport system — because airlines are just paying so darn much for fuel.
…Excuse me for a minute while I consider the situation of some poor trucker trying to make it in face of that $4.67 a gallon price for diesel I noticed the other day at a gas station out by the Interstate….
OK, then. The poor airlines, bailed out with regularity by the taxpayers, blithely strangle vital air-transport service while they wail about gas prices, as if we weren’t all trying to cope with gas prices. They appear to believe they can do this without consequence.
At some point, the Congress we allegedly have in this country might want to take a look at the economic and social implications (not to mention national security implications) of a severely deteriorating national air-transport system — and perhaps hold some feet to the fire. I mean, isn’t that Congress’s job?
Steenland, meanwhile, warns that the already shrunken system will shrink even more than has been announced. Steenland, of course, will be headed to the golf course the minute the Delta people take charge.
Here are some excerpts, with my comment, natch, from the Air Transport Association’s press release on summer travel:
—“ATA forecasts that slightly fewer passengers will travel June 1 through August 31 compared to the same period last year. Approximately 211.5 million passengers are expected to fly this summer, down approximately 1 percent from the 214.2 million passengers who traveled during the summer months of 2007.” (Statement conflates domestic travel, which is being slashed by the airlines, with international travel, which the airlines are boosting).
—“For a variety of reasons, slightly fewer people will fly this summer and planes will be approaching 85 percent full,’” said ATA President and CEO James C. May. (‘Variety of reasons’= Major airlines are yanking more planes out of service, cutting routes to many small and mid-size cities, and generally shrinking the system while raising prices.)
—“`We know that summer travel can be stressful for passengers and airports are well organized to handle unexpected schedule changes or delays,’” said Greg Principato, ACI-NA [Airports Council International North America] president. “`We will work closely with the airlines and the Transportation Security Administration to ensure safe and smooth operations for travelers. In the case of delays, airports will help to provide a full range of business and leisure services to meet passenger needs.’” [True fact. Principato is a good guy and the airports have really been stepping up to the plate to provide customer service that no longer is being provided by the airlines],
—“… with the cost of jet fuel approaching $170 per barrel, airlines will be taking every conceivable step to minimize delays and improve operational efficiencies.” [Correct: You will see airlines pro-actively canceling even more domestic flights, to cut costs, using the lamest of excuses, like party cloudy skies.]
—“Working together we are doing our best to make this summer travel season better than last.”
[Talk about setting the bar low!]
–end
May 16th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
While I normally agree with your assessments, I’m not completely in your camp here, particularly your assertion that fuel conservation is a bad thing. You’re a smart guy Joe, if you could conserve you would too.
Why would a carrier fly wingtip flights to the same market with 60%(ish) load factors and fares covering only 50% of the plane’s costs, when they could fly one flight full? In the Board rooms, that idea makes sense and that’s where it counts. Most passengers are not stock holders (why would you its not a good investment) but the simple fact is that the airline executives are beholden to their stockholders.
After 2001 all carriers needed to trim the fat and they did what they thought they could (you can armchair QB this one to death) to get costs down. Was it enough? Was a Federal check needed ? (I’m with you on this – NO!) In any case the industry is here… now… a result of those choices made.
Pushing or expecting a single industry (on the brink of starvation) to pay almost completely for our country’s boarder protection is only part of the problem and then absorb a near doubling of their fuel cost while maintaining a status quo on fares, is unfair. A shrinking economy, escalating costs that have in many cases were unrealistically cut only a few short years ago, changing technologies and a generational shift to a less human more mechanical contact mentality, have all changed the landscape of what we expect in our airlines. Most people’s first contact with an airline employee is when they hand their ticket to the gate agent upon boarding the aircraft and then expect to get a Ferrari service at Greyhound prices once on board. If you are flying a discount carrier you know there are minimal or no frills. You are less likely to expect the Ferrari and are often left with the feeling of contentment in the fact that you saved a buck or two. Look at Ryan Air (Ireland), is this the business model of the future ? Is it sound? … expecting the consumer to pay for what services they want… makes sense, sorta. In order for legacy carriers to maintain market share they need to keep their fares at price points commensurate with their competition.
It’s really a matter of getting what you pay for. If you expect to be treated like a Ferrari customer, it is then expected that you pay for that extra attention. If you expect to be transported from point “A” to point “B” in the most inexpensive way, you will… your choice, stop complaining.
The media is partly to blame for this entitled mentality. Its easy to say it in a headline, defending the consumer and trying to save a buck. “The pain at the pump translates to higher fares” or “The big bad airlines are to blame…” what, for their lot in life? Come on, lets get real. What happened to the expectation of service as a direct correlation to value? You want a Ferrari, you pay for a Ferrari, you get all the goodness that comes with it. You want an 88 Buick, you pay for an 88 Buick, you get all the goodness that comes with it. The problem lies when the guy who paid for the 88 Buick sits next to the guy with the driving gloves and the fancy red wind breaker. I don’t expect that airlines are going to trash the yield management systems they currently operate under, but I’d suspect that they will take a good long look at their methodologies.
Keep up the good work Joe, you’re still a friend to the road warrior…
Scott