Joe Sharkey At Large

In today’s no-shit-Sherlock news, this newspaper reports on a Harvard study that finds parrots can dance and aren’t faking it. (It would seem to me that faking it would be a much greater marvel, but I’ve learned never to quibble with a newspaper.)

The photo is of our regular contributor, our feature Crazy-Dancing-Ray-Charles-Loving-Cockatoo, who appears here regularly. He’s a way better dancer than that one in Boston.

Anybody who owns or is acquainted with a parrot knows they love to dance to music. A nice 2/4 beat will usually do, but our macaw sways to a waltz like a drunk stevedore.

New flash: Parrots also talk!

Our African grey also sings the coloratura notes from the Queen of the Night aria in the Magic Flute, but very, very badly and she’s faking the high F’s.

Oh, and when I’m traveling, I also use Skype to videoconference with the birds and my wife. The parrots get the idea of videoconferencing.

Oh, and by the way, re the comments on that linked-to newspaper article from people who say they want a dancing parrot, too. Seriously, a parrot is a major responsibility — they live to be over 50, and bond intensely with their humans and require a lot of attention. They’re like three-year-olds who never grow up (but on the other hand, you don’t have to pay college tuition). A parrot is not to be undertaken lightly. Seriously.

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The Airports Council International, which represents the world’s airports, revised its preparedness guidelines this month. They make for interesting reading. Here’s a copy.

Let’s hope the individual airports get the message about the importance of clear and accurate communication with the public. From the guidelines:

“Communication with affected travelers is vital to ensuring that discord is not created. Travelers should be kept informed, and staff should be available to reply to questions.”

We’ll see how that works out, if and when.

The guidelines begin with this summary:

“In the event of an outbreak of communicable diseases on an international level, air travel will be the focus of much attention due to the potential for aviation to increase the rate at which a disease spreads, thereby decreasing the time available for preparing interventions. Although it is probably not feasible to halt the spread of some diseases, advance preparation should make it possible to reduce the consequences.”

Meanwhile, let’s hope we don’t see many manifestations of this:

“In the event of positive secondary screening, measures should be taken to refer the individual for appropriate diagnosis, and management, in accordance with the IHR (2005) with a view to protecting the public from potential infection i.e. by isolation or quarantine. Appropriate isolation or quarantine facilities should be identified by the public health authority and are normally only available away from the airport site.”

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The best common-sense approach to evaluating the potential swine flu epidemic is to stay well informed.

Here’s tonight’s update from the Centers for Disease Control, which lists 91 cases and one death in the United States.

Over 30,000 people, mostly old people, die from complications of everyday seasonal flu in an average year, remember. So this may not look so serious, just looking at the numbers so far.

But as the CDC says tonight: “More recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S. Most people will not have immunity to this new virus and, as it continues to spread, more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths are expected in the coming days and weeks.”

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The International Air Transport Association issued this generally level-headed Q&A on swine flu and international air travel, citing the World Health Organization (WHO) as its authority.

But IATA really needs to cut the crap in seeking to assure the public that you can catch a virus anywhere, ho-ho, so not to worry about an airplane with its “very advanced air filtration systems.”

WTF? The WHO doesn’t say that.

If push comes to shove, an airplane packed with infected people — let’s say, people traveling from an area where the virus is at epidemic levels — is a very dangerous place. I’m not saying avoid air travel, even from Mexico. I’m just saying exercise precaution in where you travel if this situation gets worse.

Here’s the part of the IATA statement that I consider baloney:

“Normal influenza can be transmitted in many situations – at home between family members, in shopping malls, on the street or in aircraft. At this time, the WHO has not identified any specific risks from air travel. The WHO and experts are still gathering information about the particular type of Swine Influenza in question.

“Passengers should be reassured that modern aircraft have very advanced air filtration systems which ensure a high level of air quality despite the confined environment. And, as always, it is important that any passenger who is unwell consult with his or her doctor prior to undertaking any travel.” [That last sentence, of course, is not baloney.]

Instead, here’s an objective assessment from a travel health physician in the Times the other day.

Meanwhile, France surrenders again.

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In keeping with my opposition to media paraphrasing when the exact language is available, here is how the World Health Organization defines its pandemic phase levels. (See chart here.)

The WHO has now raised the phase to 5. Here are the WHO definitions for Phases 5 and 6:

“Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community-level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.”

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I figured the swine flu story had jumped the shark this morning when the earnest National Public Radio lady told me to stay tuned for a song about preventing dying from flu by washing your hands. I couldn’t stab the button fast enough to switch to the merry all-Mariachi station that comes in from Mexico, which is my annoyance-default on the radio in Tucson. I figured if the all-Mariachi station interrupted the merriment for a news bulletin, I could switch back to NPR and hope they had something in English beyond a ditty about hand-washing.

The usual hysterics in the media have failed in their desperation to hype this story, which common-sense Americans are staying well-informed about by reading sensible newspapers and following sensible online reporting.

Here is a great example of how common sense, coupled with reasonable precaution, are prevailing:

A survey by the Association of Corporate Travel Executives (ACTE) indicates that preparedness, not panic, is the response f the global corporate travel community to the flu outbreak.

The majority of companies report minimal or no travel cancellations (outside of Mexico). According to the group’s executive director, Susan Gurley, survey results show that business travelers are focused not on avoiding travel but on the precautions that should be taken while on the road.

This indicates that “a majority of companies [are] showing confidence in their contagion and pandemic plans,” said Gurley. “Actually, preparedness levels are much higher than they were at the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome — SARS — in 2003. At that time, companies had to gear up for a potential pandemic. They have now had six years to build upon their contagion and pandemic plans and to perfect their implementation. This is a contributing factor in the lack of panic now.”

Sixty-two percent of the survey’s respondents answered “yes” to the question, “Do you currently have a pandemic emergency plan that covers the evacuation or hospitalization of infected travelers in a foreign country facing an outbreak of contagion?” That percentage jumped to 73 percent when respondents also answered yes to “Does your company’s pandemic emergency plan provide for the majority of employees to work from home or a remote location in the event of a pandemic in your country of origin?”

“There was concern that these might be the same contingency plans developed six years ago, but the survey clearly indicates that is not the case,” said Gurley. Fifty-eight percent of the respondents reported that their companies have been upgrading these plans on a regular basis. Furthermore, 68 percent stated that travelers and employees are advised of the upgrades every three months. Twenty-four percent said travelers were advised or reminded of the program prior to every trip.

“This represents a substantial improvement over conditions that existed in the industry prior to SARs in 2003,” said Gurley.

Slightly less than half of the poll’s respondents — 47 percent — have restricted business travel — but only to Mexico.

• Three percent have restricted travel to the U.S. and Mexico, while, while 7 percent are restricting travel to any country with reported cases of H1N1 swine influenza.
• One percent reported restricting travel to the U.S. only.
• Forty-two percent are claiming no travel restrictions at all.

Summation: Excluding travel to Mexico, only 11 percent of respondents cited travel restrictions.

Those percentages undergo a substantial shift when it comes to the cancelation of meetings in which colleagues may be exposed to the H1N1 from the handshakes and sneezes of others during business meetings, however.

• Thirty-seven percent of the survey’s respondents said they were canceling meetings, or restricting travelers from attending meetings, in which they could be exposed to the H1N1 swine influenza through colleagues from countries with reported infections.

• Sixty-three percent reported no change in their meetings program.

Reporting on concern levels expressed by individual business travelers, survey respondents claimed that only 28 percent of business travelers requested a cancellation or postponement of a business trip to a country with reported cases of H1N1 swine influenza.

• Thirty-eight percent reported that traveler concern was only limited to asking about the appropriate precautions that should be taken against the swine influenza while traveling.

• Thirty-four percent cited there was no traveler concern.

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WCBS TV in New York has an excellent follow-up to that breathtakingly stupid stunt yesterday that scared the hell out of a large number of people in New York.

The invincibly inept FAA told the NYPD to keep mum about it, even though the FAA knew the stunt would cause panic. My jaw remains dropped.

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Just for reference, here’s the operative Department of Defense plan for handling a flu pandemic in the United States. It’s a .pdf file, and it’s 87 pages.

The acronym CONUS, by the way, means continental United States.

Pages 62 and 63 outline the military’s emergency powers “in the event of pandemic influenza.” Quote: “These powers include restriction of movement and use of containment strategies (isolation, quarantine, social distancing) as well as medical evaluation and treatment.”

… Just in case you were wondering what a monstrous civil disruption would occur if a genuine flu pandemic happened…

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Smarter people than I can probably make some cosmic sense out of the current airfare environment. Anyway, here’s the latest chart from Priceline on the week’s fares to and from selected markets.

There’s some indication that Florida fares are rising.

Boston fares are definitely down.

Wonder why? Hmmmm.

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Obviously, there is still a lot of cause for concern over the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and its spread into the U.S., where 64 cases now have been diagnosed (most them them among students in New York who had recently visited Mexico)

But after a few stabs at hysteria from the usual suspects, calm and reason prevail. The travel industry, while still on high alert, has settled down, as have airline and hotel stocks. Here’s a good report on airline operations from Aviation Week.

Here is an interesting chart from the World Health Organization explaining the various alert phases in defining a pandemic. Current phase is 4.

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