I previously blogged on the impacts of swine flu on travel, what to do about the potential impacts and how savvy travellers can benefit.

This is an update on how the potential impacts are developing. A reminder that for medical advice or up to the minute information on the spread of swine flu, check out the World Health Organization (WHO) website. Note they have now taken to calling it H1N1 Influenza A instead of swine flu.

Current swine flu status

Fears of an imminent pandemic are receding as the Northern Hemisphere flu season is coming to an end. WHO continues to treat H1N1 Influenza A seriously, noting that the 1918 “Spanish flu had a lull during Northern Hemisphere summer before the full outbreak.

Current impacts on travel

To date a few thousand airline passengers have been subject to quarantine for a few days in various countries. With the exception of Hong Kong only people exhibiting flu symptoms with travel from an affected area are being compulsorily quarantined by authorities. Hong Kong has also quarantined all guests of a hotel where someone who has been confirmed as having swine flu was staying. This seems to be a reaction to SARS when the outbreak in Canada in particular was traced back to people staying in the same Hong Kong hotel as another infected person.

Flights to Mexico have been reduced. Most airlines flying to Mexico (and some flying to USA, Canada and New Zealand) have been allowing some changes to dates of travel or waiving cancellation fees. Check with your airline on the terms if you wish to take advantage of this. Similarly some Mexican hotels are allowing rebooking or cancellation waivers.

There have not yet been many sales for Mexico air fares and accommodation.

Outlook

Now that the perceived risk of travel to Mexico has fallen, I expect we’ll see some good sales soon. Airlines and hotels will want to recoup losses from the past several weeks, and replace their reduced forward bookings.

Musings of the Global Traveller
Thoughts, advice and travel news from around the world by a seasoned frequent flyer.

A few days ago I blogged on the impacts of swine flu on travel, what to do about the potential impacts and how savvy travellers can benefit.

This is an update on how the potential impacts are developing. A reminder that for medical advice or up to the minute information on the spread of swine flu, check out the World Health Organization (WHO) website. Note they have now taken to calling it H1N1 Influenza A instead of swine flu.

Current swine flu status

At time of writing the WHO pandemic alert level is 5, which means they think a pandemic is imminent. A pandemic just means this influenza strain is being spread in multiple areas of the world.

WHO is not recommending travel restrictions be imposed at present, although some governments are advising their citizens not to travel to the worst affected parts of Mexico or USA.

While this is still a new strain and it is not yet certain how bad swine flu will be, on the information currently available it does appear to be much weaker than SARS to put this into context. (Note SARS was not an influenza virus, but I compare infection and death rates of swine flu with SARS because many readers remember the impacts that SARS had on travel.)

I have no intention of curtailing my own upcoming travel.

Current impacts on travel

Many countries have introduced elementary screening of international arrivals. These typically are through use of visual checks, thermal cameras (particularly in Asia) or questionnaires. A (extremely) small number of arriving passengers who are unwell may be taken for tests and quarantine.

At least one country has issued a ban on flights from Mexico – Cuba. Other countries may follow suit, although as stated on my how to get to Mexico post there aren’t many countries with direct flights (see that post for a list of the main ones). Stopping Mexico to USA or Canada flights is totally impractical, and in the case of USA ineffective when people can easily cross the border by land.

Already some air fares to Mexico from USA, and Mexican hotel rates, are falling.

Outlook

This is very early in the cycle for a new influenza strain. We don’t yet understand how serious (or not) swine flu will be. I expect to post another update on the travel impacts in a few days’ time, or sooner if there are significant developments. In the meantime I am already thinking about how I may be able to take advantage of some travel bargains which are sure to arise.

Musings of the Global Traveller
Thoughts, advice and travel news from around the world by a seasoned frequent flyer.

Travellers are affecting by major disease outbreaks in several ways, and not just through contracting the disease themselves.

1. Exposure to the disease (currently swine flu but previously avian flu, SARS, etc).
2. Denied boarding.
3. Closed borders.
4. Quarantine.
5. Aftermath (travel bargains).

1. Exposure to disease

The nature of travel means that travellers are generally more exposed to influenza-based diseases than the general public. However this greater exposure doesn’t necessarily mean high exposure. For example at time of writing the World Health Organisation (WHO) reports 73 confirmed cases of swine flu (H1N1), with almost all confirmed cases being from Mexico and USA. While the number of actual cases is undoubtedly much higher, it is still a very small number compared to the number of people currently with regular influenza. The odds are extremely good that the person coughing or sneezing on the train, plane or bus does not have swine flu.

Travellers should keep themselves informed of public health warnings. For some travellers, in some countries, there may be language barriers to being informed through the media (and local media suppression is an issue in some countries). However WHO is a good source of detailed information (and Centre for Disease Control or CDC a good backup in USA and neighbouring countries).

2. Denied boarding

All airlines have the right to deny travel to passengers who present symptoms of an infectious disease, or to require medical certification of suitability of travel. In practice, most of the time you need to be seriously unwell to be denied boarding. We’ve all been on flights were someone nearby appears to be fairly sick. Indeed, just a week ago I developed a head cold while travelling.

At time there are public health alerts airlines may take a stronger line, and those with normal sniffles may be denied boarding or requested to have a check up. I haven’t yet seen reports of this happening with swine flu, but it is only a matter of time.

If you are moderately unwell and really need to fly it may be worth a pre-emptive medical check to certify that you are okay to travel, especially if you are flying from an area deemed at moderate or higher risk (bearing in mind this can rapidly change from day to day or even hour to hour). If you don’t need to fly consider deferring your travel.

3. Closed borders

A more extreme case of denied boarding is when a country or region closes its borders and prohibits travel across it. In today’s connected society this is unlikely except in the event of full blown pandemic. However, it is in WHO and many countries’ risk management plans for dealing with pandemics. Accordingly, travellers should be aware of the possibility of being stuck inside a high risk area, or being prevented from returning home, at least for a period. In theory travel insurance may cover this, however in the event of a bad pandemic with widespread & lengthy border closures I am sceptical. This is a very low risk but potentially high impact event. Most likely if it occurs travellers who are away from home at the time may have to throw themselves on the mercy of local authorities and charities for assistance, if they are unable to support themselves.

4. Quarantine

A traveller who is on a flight with a suspected case of highly infectious disease may find themselves placed under quarantine on arrival. Also some airports screen all arriving passengers and may detain those with symptoms (such as a temperature) – Hong Kong, Seoul and Tokyo spring to mind from my recent travels. At the minimum a quarantine is likely to be as long as required to be cleared by test results (assuming they come back negative), namely a few days, but could be longer if the test return is positive or there is a backlog in testing.

My suggestion is, where possible, try to avoid international flights which arrive on or immediately before any important events. It wouldn’t be nice to have a last minute deferrment of a wedding for example, or to miss it.

5. Aftermath

When public health authorities warn against travel to certain (or all) areas, it is natural that travel loads fall. When SARS happened many intra-Asian flights were very nearly empty and others cancelled. Airlines and hotels that are already struggling with the financial recession may be hit hard by disease-induced drop in travel.

I’d expect more flight cancellations, more flight and hotel bargains (especially hotels – you can’t cancel a hotel room like you can cancel a flight!) and incentives (bonus miles, free nights, etc). Obviously some areas will be affected more than others. With swine flu (and other influenza-based diseases) it is more likely to affect airlines and hotels that depend on international passengers/visitors, and especially areas with the most reported cases.

Summary

I am not qualified in medical advice. However, at this stage I have not changed any of my travel plans and nor do I expect to in the short term. Instead I am reminding myself of the above advice, reviewing updated information and being aware of options.

Safe travels and happy bargain hunting.

Musings of the Global Traveller
Thoughts, advice and travel news from around the world by a seasoned frequent flyer.