Posted by Seth on May 29, 2009 under Uncategorized | 
Belize is known as a diver’s Mecca. The world’s second longest barrier reef sits just a couple minutes off the coast of Ambergris Caye and the reef system is one of the better protected natural resources on the planet. But above and beyond the phenomenal diving that is generally available in Belize there is a holy grail of sorts: the Blue Hole. The Blue Hole is rather famous, mostly for the views of it from above. It is a huge hole – over 400 feet deep – in the middle of a limestone-based reef and shallows. It also appears from the air to be almost perfectly round which makes for some great photos if you happen to be flying over top of it. But if you’re flying over it then you aren’t diving down into it, and that is really where the fun begins.
Getting out to the Blue Hole is something of an ordeal. It isn’t cheap at about $250/person and it isn’t quick at over two hours each way just for the boat ride there and back from San Pedro. But the dive operators make sure to keep their customers busy throughout the (very long) day, from arrival at the docks at 5:30-6am through to the return almost twelve hours later. Oh, and did I mention that there is a lot of diving?
 |
| Looking up from 100′ below the surface in the Blue Hole |
There are three dives on the day trip. The first – the Blue Hole itself – goes down to about 130 feet below the surface, deeper than just about any other commonly visited recreational dive site. The Hole isn’t teeming with aquatic life (though we did see a shark, some lobster and tons of little goby fish) so that isn’t an attraction at all. But it does have some pretty amazing underwater rock formations that come from the erosion of the limestone that forms the Hole. Unfortunately, because of the significant depth that the formations are seen at, there isn’t a whole lot of time spent viewing them. Most folks will get to spend 5-8 minutes at that depth before beginning the ascent to shallower water where there is a seemingly interminable stop to let the nitrogen seep out of the bloodstream, all while floating over the abyss and staring at a lot of nothing.
After the Blue Hole there are two other dives that fill out the rest of the day trip – Half Moon Caye Wall and The Aquarium. For many who make the trip out to the Blue Hole these are the dives that they really go for. The reefs are pristine and teeming with life. From barracuda to angelfish to eels to nurse sharks to dozens of other species that make up a typical Caribbean dive experience, the range is simply amazing.
 |
 |
| The scorpionfish does a great job of blending in on the reef. |
I was singing Heart’s Barracuda quite a bit on this dive |
 |
 |
| Swimming with the turtles is always fun. |
These tiny blue shrimp were fun to watch on top of the coral head. |
In addition to all the diving there is a brief lunch break at Half Moon Caye. The Caye is a wildlife sanctuary and a national park and serves as a rookery for the red-footed boobie. There is an observation deck from which hundreds of the birds are visible. Probably not worth a trip in its own right unless birding is really your thing, but it makes for a nice distraction during the non-dive time of the day. And on the boat ride home there is plenty of rum punch of one sort or another being served. That certainly helps the long boat ride home pass more quickly.
Diving the Blue Hole is quite amazing and certainly is a “bucket list” item for folks who dive, but it was also probably the least fantastic dive of the week.
Lots more photos from the diving in Belize – both at the Blue Hole and just off Ambergris Caye – can be found here.
Posted by Seth on May 29, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Another new carrier plans to take to the skies over America in early July, with an almost certain future – a quick failure. JetAmerica plans to operate service based out of Toledo, Ohio, just up the road from Columbus, Ohio, the recent failure home of SkyBus. It probably is no coincidence that the “brains” behind the operation happens to be the same guy. This should be interesting.
Service from Toledo will include South Bend, Indiana; Melbourne, Florida; Lansing, Michigan; Minneapolis, Minnesota and Newark, New Jersey. The service will not operate daily on any of the routes; they are taking after the Allegiant Air approach of service a couple times a week to each destination. But unlike Allegiant, the destinations being served are not particularly high demand at either end as best as I can tell. Newark and Minneapolis are hubs for Continental and Northwest (now Delta), respectively. If there was demand for those flights they probably would be operating already in many cases.
The carrier is also having trouble with the concept of pricing and their “no gimmick” claims. All tickets incur a $5 “convenience fee” for the booking, so the $9 fare sale is actually $14, with the $5 tucked into the “taxes” section of the record. Yeah, that would be a gimmick.
And they are actually operating as a scheduled charter operator rather than regular commercial service. This makes a bit of a difference when it comes to passenger rights and other details of the operational aspects of the carrier. It isn’t necessarily bad, but it certainly qualifies it as a bit sketchy. At least it means that they will have relatively new airplanes flying around for them.
Finally, they are financing a large part of this service with FAA-provided grant money from the Small Cities Air Service program. Money in this program is supposed to be used to help stimulate service to underserved markets. Toledo qualifies for this service to the tune of $400K and the local airport authority has kicked in another $200K. That’s not enough to operate an airline for very long, hence the prediction of the quick demise
It is hard to believe that folks are willing to continue throwing good money at bad ideas. Fuel prices are slowly ticking back up and the economy is rather in the tank still. Even if it weren’t the chances of success with this carrier would still be miserably low. But the guy keeps getting paid do start up these airlines and then, eventually, screw over customers and investors. That is just sad.
Lots more useful thoughts on this new airline over at Hudson Crossing.
Posted by Seth on May 28, 2009 under TSA |
For years now the TSA has been trying to convince the traveling public that showing an ID at the airport checkpoint is actually somehow helping to provide security to the air travel infrastructure. They haven’t really explained how this is possible, other than claiming that they have some super master list of all the terrorists out there, except for the real terrorists because we can’t have them knowing that we know who they are. Or something like that. Still, the ID requirement has been revised and increased several times over the past few years to the point now that the TSA is pretty convinced that they know who is passing through the checkpoint.
Unless, of course, that person is on a holiday runaway with her daughter to Disney World.
A woman borrowed a former co-worker’s drivers license under the guise of needing it for work-related reasons and used that ID to buy tickets at the airport (paid cash) and then passed through the TSA screening at that same airport. The ID was also used to check in at the hotel in Orlando.
Putting aside that the woman appears to be a whack job she otherwise wasn’t a risk to the air travel system. So in that regard there isn’t really much of an issue with the fact that the TSA completely didn’t notice that the person on the ID wasn’t the same as the person standing in front of them. But the TSA is spending billions of dollars trying to perfect their ID screening efforts, with the REAL ID fiasco, hiring extra TSOs to check IDs at airports and otherwise wasting money. And the results are clear. They’ve found a few fake IDs but failed at the rather basic test of matching the person in front of them to the person on the ID. So all a terrorist would need to do is steal someone’s wallet (or buy an ID from anyone willing to sell one) and they’ve got an easy way past the security infrastructure thrown up at them. That’s awesome, though hardly a surprise. Of course, the TSA continues to claim that their security is working correctly because of the “layers” and the fact that this person wasn’t ever a threat is apparently enough for them to continue on that streak, but no thanks to the actual policies that they’ve implemented.
Along the lines of the ID checking is another new bit that the TSA is pursuing – the collection of birth date and gender from every passenger. Of course, this is supposed to work in conjunction with the aforementioned ID checking bit, so there is sufficient skepticism as to its efficacy right from the get-go. “Secure Flight,” as the program in known, is the next generation of the ID matching efforts from the TSA. In theory it means fewer false SSSS matches for additional security screenings at the checkpoint which is a good thing. But it also means more underemployed TSA employees conducting screenings at the gates rather than spending that money on something useful such as cargo screening. And, thanks to the infinite wisdom of the government, it means a ridiculous implementation schedule that is inconsistent across the industry and probably will remain ineffective for some time to come.
The TSA started requiring airlines to collect the data on May 15. But the deadline for airlines to start transmitting the data to the agency for screening — and even the deadline for the airlines to start collecting the names — are far from set in concrete.
The airlines have staggered dates for compliance, depending on each carrier’s technological capabilities and on what arrangements it has worked out with the TSA. That applies not only to the initial name collection in May but also for the Aug. 15 deadline to begin collecting birthday and gender information and transmitting all of that data to the TSA for screening and verification, agency and airline officials said.
…
"It’s my understanding that the completion of the project will be final for all channels by end of October-beginning of November 2010," said Jim Martin, the North America product market manager for Amadeus. Martin coordinated the company’s efforts to meet the new security requirements for its GDS clients.
In other words, the TSA wants the airlines to start collecting data that they cannot yet process or otherwise deal with. But the airlines must endure the costs today of implementing these systems that no one knows if the TSA will ever be able to use and which almost certainly does not actually help in the security arena. Knowing who is traveling is relatively inconsequential, and despite their claims to the contrary the TSA doesn’t really have a way to process the information anyways.
That’s our tax dollars AND the passenger security fees – costs that the government wants to significantly increase – at work. Or at least sitting around the airport talking to their friends and not really doing anything useful.
Posted by Seth on May 28, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Perhaps calling it a war is a bit more hyperbole than necessary, but there are several options for pupusas in San Pedro town on Ambergris Caye, two of them happen to be right next door to each other and the quality is truly impressive. They were just one of the many incredibly satisfying and reasonably cheap meals available on the island, assuming that you’re willing to walk away from the typical tourist hotspots on the waterfront. There were some good options in that category, too, but at 3-4x the price. Both were good, but as usual the local fare generally won out.
|
|
| Sarah gets started on another evening of delicious papusas at Pupuseria |
The pupusas – corn meal pancakes stuffed with meat, cheese and beans (or some combination thereof and then fried) were truly delicious. A native dish of El Salvador, they are offered on Ambergris Caye by a couple competing restaurants that are literally right next to each other. Both women cook the delicious morsels on griddles right out on the street, in full view of the public. Both have their own recipes for the various stuffing options (my personal favorite was the chicken & cheese; the bean options were too runny for me) but there doesn’t seem to be too much stress in the rivalry. In fact, other than this report I’m not sure that there actually is any rivalry. Sarah, one of the proprietors of Pupuseria (on Pescadoro Drive near Black Coral Street) and a native El Salvadoran has been working her craft for nine years in Ambergris Caye and seemed as happy to be doing it this past weekend as if she had just started. Each pupusa is handmade when it is ordered, fried up fresh and served hot right to the table. There are sides of slaw and hot sauce to round out the flavor. And the best part – they are only BZD$2.50 (1USD = 2BZD) each; the bottles of soda cost almost as much. Getting a great meal for less than BZD$20 for two people is a very likely reality. There are other things on the menu but with the main option this good it isn’t really worth bothering with them.
 |
| Huevos Rancheros at My Secret Deli in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, Belize |
The other great option for local food in San Pedro comes in the form of the many delis that they have in town. There are more than a handful and keeping track of all of them proved somewhat difficult. But whether looking for a hearty breakfast or a filling lunch of rice & beans with chicken or fish – all for less than BZD$15/person – the delis are a great way to go. My Secret Deli (that’s the real name, not one that I refuse to share with you) offers up options for a variety of tastes all at very reasonable prices. For breakfast the Huevos Rancheros were quite good, as was the Belizean breakfast served with fried jacks – the Belizean entry into the “every culture has a slightly sweet fried dough option at breakfast” competition. They are puffy, doughy, deep fried and just the slightest bit sweet. Oh, and they are delicious either on their own or when used to scoop up eggs, beans and bacon.
There are also some local dining options each evening in the park at the center of town. The vendors vary based on the night, as does the quality of the food provided. But it is definitely cheap and reasonably filling. And if you’re feeling truly adventurous head over to the corner of Barrier Reef Drive and Caribeña Street where you’ll see a guy and his grill out in front of the town’s slot parlor. He’s got BBQ chicken and pork chops, as well as rice & beans. It cooks up fresh so it can take a bit of time if he doesn’t have any ready right then (better than salmonella) but it was damn good and worth the bit of wait and the BZD$15 I dropped for a VERY large meal (I had both the chicken and the pork chop that day).
 |
| Enjoying the Grouper Club wrap, the great view and a Beliken for lunch at Wild Mangoes |
Moving up from the local “holes” to more tourist-focused restaurants the quality spread got a bit wider while the price point rose rather uniformly. Fido’s, right on the waterfront just north of the center of town was particularly expensive for the quality. It wasn’t bad, but there are way better options for the money (about BZD$25 for a sandwich at lunch). One of the better options at the higher end of the market is Wild Mango’s, just south of the park on the beach front. Yes, the dinners are expensive (lunch is more reasonable) but the food is top notch. The flavors blend well without being overpowering on any one front and the ingredients are ridiculously fresh. And you really cannot beat the view that comes with the meal. Looking out at crystal clear blue seas just 30 feet from the table and extending as far as the eye can see is quite a relaxing way to enjoy a fine meal.
An island institution, Elvi’s has been around seemingly forever and has been cooking up good local food that whole time. Whether you head there for the weekly Mayan buffet night on Fridays (approx. BZD$50/person) or just order up a regular meal from the menu, the local flavors shine through quite impressively. They also have the cool factor of a sand floor and a huge tree growing up through the middle of the main dining room. El Patio presents a similar menu and effect (sand floor, mostly covered outdoor seating) but the food was a notch lower in quality; the flavors were not quite as well defined.
One final note about fresh ingredients – they make all the difference in the world. The piña coladas and margaritas were all delicious because the ingredients were fresh. Apparently it is more expensive to ship in the high fructose corn syrup mixer blend crap than to use fresh lime juice or coconuts. That is a good thing for the discerning drinker. And for the not so discerning drinker the Beliken beer is local and quite refreshing.
A few other random notes on dining in San Pedro:
- Lots of restaurants are closed on Tuesdays. Others are closed on Sundays. Plan appropriately.
- At the more local places expect to speak more Spanish than English. Even a bit of broken Spanish (all I’ve got, really) was enough to get by, but it definitely helped.
- The best value propositions for a “splurge” meal is probably lunch at Wild Mango’s. All the quality while still keeping the price point reasonable, right up until the third daiquiri kicks in.
Pupuseria
Pescadoro Drive, just south of Black Coral Street
My Secret Deli
Caribeña Street, just west of Pescadoro Drive
+501.226.3223
Elvi’s
Corner of Ambergris Street and Pescadoro Drive
Wild Mango’s
Beachfront at Tarpon Street
+501.226.2859
Reservations recommended for dinner
Fido’s
Coral Reef Drive between Pelican Street and Ambergris Street; also accessible from the beach
+501.226.2056
El Patio
Barrier Reef Drive and Black Coral Street
+501.226.3898
Posted by Seth on May 26, 2009 under Uncategorized |
It is another beautiful day here in Belize. The sun is shining and the palm trees are swaying gently in the light breeze on the beach. And I’m awake at 5:15am – again! – because the sun came up and brightened up our room well beyond the level that the interior lights provide. There are curtains covering all the windows, but they are really more for providing the appearance of privacy from prying eyes, not for blocking out the sun. The don’t really do much of anything on that front.
 |
| Sunrise over Ambergris Caye |
Of course, the early wake ups from the sunrise aren’t all bad. They keep us more or less on New York City time – 2 hours off this time of year – so we shouldn’t have any trouble making that adjustment when we head home. And it made the 5:30am start for our big day of diving at the Blue Hole a piece of cake. But it also means that by the time 9pm rolls around we’re pretty much exhausted. I don’t think we’ve missed too much by skipping out on the vibrant nightlife scene here; over sweetened rum drinks and loud music aren’t really my style anyways. But some blackout curtains to allow us to sleep in if we wanted to wouldn’t have been so bad.
|
|
| Relaxing at the pool of the Blue Tang Inn |
Except for the curtains issue our hotel – The Blue Tang Inn – has been a perfect match for our needs. The “garden view” room, Suite #1, on the ground floor actually faces the ocean so we can see the sand and the waves out our window. The air conditioning is plenty cool and the pool area offers either sun or shade and a decent plunge to cool off. The rooms on the two higher floors have hammocks on their patios and there is a roof deck for those who feel the need to be that much closer to the sun when trying to get a tan.
The hotel location is also quite nice. It is just far enough out of town – about 5 minutes walking on the beach – that it is a bit quieter and out of the way. But it is not so far away that it requires a taxi or water shuttle to get back and forth every time you want to do anything. Combine all of that with quite reasonable prices and a friendly and welcoming staff and there really isn’t much to dislike about this place.
Except that they need blackout curtains.
Posted by Seth on May 24, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Perhaps it is because I eat them so frequently in sushi restaurants, but I am not sure. What I am certain of is that eels have it in for me. On two consecutive days of diving I’ve had incidents with eels. The last one was in Ft. Lauderdale and that guy was none to happy to see me. This time it was in Belize and if it wasn’t the exact same eel it was certainly a close cousin.
I swam over the top of the coral finger and nosed down over the edge to find a green eel swimming pretty much straight towards me. The good news is that this one seemed willing to be distracted by the others we were diving with rather than focusing all its attention on just me. And while I haven’t really spent a lot of time studying the facial features and mannerisms of eels to decide when they are happy and when they are angry, this one didn’t seem particularly happy to me.
 |
| Another dive, another eel headed straight for me! |
Of course, it is possible that my judgment of its mood was based on the fact that it was swimming straight for me, occasionally with its mouth open. It turns out that I have a reverse gear when diving; I didn’t know that until yesterday.
And on this dive there was more than just the one eel. There were actually several. One little spotted eel hanging out in the coral was particularly photogenic:
 |
| A spotted eel poking out from the coral |
Lots more pictures of pretty stuff underwater, but sharing of them is going to have to wait until I’ve got more time to post and less time planning my next dive profile. Time to get back in the water!
Posted by Seth on May 22, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Let me begin by saying that there is no good reason for 15 minute delays at the Holland Tunnel at 4:15am, even if it is the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. And yet, there we were, sitting in the back of the car, slowly inching our way under the Hudson River and towards New Jersey. That is only one of many things that are quite surreal to me about the process of making it to the airport for a 6am flight.
I’ve taken such flights plenty of times – there is no better way to be in Washington, DC for work at 8am than to catch the 6am Shuttle flight down and then hop on the Metro. Most of the time it is an easy ride to the airport and then sleepwalking through the security lines, onto the plane and collapsing in a heap of sleep in the seat. But every now and then, like this morning, there is something just a bit different about the experience that stands out.
For starters, it is a Friday morning rather than a Monday, my usual 6am departure days. Friday morning at 4:15am is a lot like Thursday night at 4:15am for many folks in New York City and we saw plenty of them out this morning. There were Groups of friends making their way back to the subway, shouting back and forth with admirers in cars passing by. Folks were trying to find cabs – always a challenge at 4am and 4pm thanks to shift changes. And there was one cute couple tucked into an alcove on the side of a building making out and enjoying the waning moments of their night.
And then there was us, having already been to bed, woken up and ready to head out to the airport. Other than the brief delay at the Holland Tunnel and the wholly unsurprising “bag check” that I received courtesy of the TSA (here’s a hint: If you’re going to waste my time checking the bag you probably should check the whole thing) the airport experience was really just the same as always; even checking in the dive gear was painless.
And then back to the not so normal. There were maintenance trucks of some sort working on runway 22R (normally used for southbound departures at Newark) so we actually used the “wrong” runway for our takeoff this morning. Not a big deal on a 757 but definitely different. And then there is Captain Chisolm, our pilot today. I’m not quite sure that I’ve ever heard anyone quite so chipper at 6:15am, certainly not on an airplane. I’m not a huge fan of the comedy shtick during the announcements but this guy managed to make it work. Among the witticisms:
The weather in Miami calls for broken clouds at 25,000 feet. You just can’t have nice things – you let someone play with your clouds and they end up broken.
We’re going to be flying south today straight to Miami. When I see my house in Ft. Lauderdale I’ll know it is time to start the descent.
Glad that he’s having fun up there and I’m sure it isn’t the. I know that I’m doing just fine back here.
Posted by Seth on May 21, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Continental and jetBlue have announced some new routes over the past couple weeks, looking to capitalize on fun, sun and, in one case, subsidy money and demand. Sure, the economy is still hurt and the airline industry is still struggling, but there are little bits of expansion happening anyways as specific markets still appear ripe for the taking.
In Continental’s case the market is Biloxi, Mississippi. The carrier has contracted with Grand Casino Biloxi and the IP Casino Resort to subsidize the costs of operating flights between the casino town and two Florida cities – Tampa and Jacksonville. The fares are not super-cheap; they still cost ~$120 each way at the bottom end of the range – but they are at least providing service. AirTran used to operate similar flights for the casinos but chose to not renew the contract in January so there is clearly some questionable history on the routes. Continental will operate the flights using an Embrear ERJ-145 through its regional carrier Continental Express.
JetBlue announced today their intent to expand their service into Jamaica, adding daily non-stop flights to Kingston from their hub at New York’s JFK, subject to government approval. This is on top of the Montego Bay flights that began service today. Air Jamaica has been struggling of late and this certainly cannot be good for them. Relatively speaking jetBlue operates a reliable and friendly service and has nicer planes. There is only so much bad that “champagne flights” can make up for, and Air Jamaica has gone way past that historically so it is nice to see that folks needing to get between New York and Kingston will have another option available.
Service to Kingston will mark jetBlue’s 14th international destination, a significant growth in the Caribbean region over the past couple years. Those markets appear to have much higher yields than the transcon markets that jetBlue has been trimming down lately. Yes, they are keeping the transcons, but they are not growing them and aren’t working too hard to build that aspect of their business. After all, it isn’t a particularly profitable market.
JetBlue has also announced a return of their seasonal service to Nantucket for the summer and a fare sale on the Montego Bay flights. If Jamaica in the middle of hurricane season is your thing the fares are actually pretty good – $129+tax each way.
Get out there and fly!
Posted by Seth on May 20, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Want to get a LOT of points for not much money? It is super easy thanks to the myriad of promos tied to loyalty credit cards. Offers of 25,000 points or more just to sign up are rather common, as are waivers on the annual fees for the first year. So why wouldn’t everyone just sign up for a bunch of cards and rake in the points? Well, actually, lots of folks do. But could that game be coming to a rather abrupt end in the near future?
The US Congress has passed legislation recently – expected to be reconciled and signed into law by the holiday weekend – that will greatly change the way the credit card issuers are able to charge fees and change interest rates on accounts. This has many in the point-obsessed community up in arms, afraid that their gravy train may have finally dried up. Why? Because the companies are paying for the huge bonuses out of the money they are pulling in from the high fees they are charging the folks carrying a balance.
In many cases the people getting the points from the promos are never coming anywhere close to actually generating enough revenue – through annual fees, merchant processing fees on charges or any other means – to account for the bonuses being allotted. In some cases the spread is $100 or more. But the credit card companies continue to offer these programs so they must be profitable at some level, right? That profit comes from folks who carry a balance on their loyalty cards, often at a ridiculously high rate. But if Congress regulates those rates then where will the profit margin come from? And if no profits, can the programs continue to be offered? Certainly legislating against stupidity is a losing battle and probably one that no government should really be involved in, but it seems that it might actually be useful in this particular instance, at least from a macroeconomic perspective.
The math is really quite simple on these changes – when the profits disappear so will the perks. The question is whether folks churning the cards will still be able to collect or not, and I really do not have too much sympathy for them if that avenue disappears.
Posted by Seth on May 19, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Delta has slashed their fares in their Shuttle markets – New York City to Boston or Washington, DC – by 50-60% for walk-up purchases. The tickets come out of a limited inventory bucket – Q – but they are way cheaper than they used to be and shouldn’t be too hard to find unless the plane is already sold out. This appears to be a direct response to Delta’s shrinking traffic loads on their shuttle flights, once a cash cow for the carrier, and competition from Amtrak and the various bus services now plying the routes for $30 or less.
Delta began downgrading the Shuttle service last December when they removed the dedicated fleet (goodbye comfortable 34” legroom) and switched most of the NY-DC operations over to regional jet service (albeit nice RJs). That move, and the associated cut in capacity wasn’t enough to keep the planes flying full, however, and apparently the next step is to cut the prices in half to match the cut in plane size.
The NYC – Washington, DC fare is now $169+tax and the Boston fare is $129+tax, a sharp drop from the $329+ walkup fares that used to be common on the routes. No word yet on a competitive response from US Airways or Continental (from Newark) but price cuts are likely in their immediate future, too.
Advance purchase tickets are still even cheaper – as low as $100 with limited availability – but the new walkup cuts are still quite significant in their own right.
Posted by Seth on May 19, 2009 under Uncategorized |
Who says you need to book way in advance to get the best rates? That certainly doesn’t seem to be the case these days for many destinations. Advance bookings are down across the industry in many areas and deals abound for those willing to search them out.
Most notably for me was a hotel booking I made on Saturday for an arrival this Friday. Only 6 days in advance and there were plenty of rooms available, all at ~20% off the web rates. A quick call to the hotel was able to secure that deal. It works better with non-chain properties so there is that, but I’m quite happy saving a few hundred dollars that way and giving up the points.
Book a refundable reservation farther out if there is concern about missing out completely, but check up closer to the arrival date. Odds are there are deals to be found with the industry the way it is right now.
