Posted by Seth on March 31, 2011 under Book Review, Review | 
I prefer to welcome back baseball each year with a trip to Spring Training. Sneaking away from the cold of New York City in the middle of March for a couple days of fun and sun in Florida is never a bad thing. Sadly, however, it did not come to pass this year. Instead I welcomed back the baseball season through the eyes and words of one of their own, Dirk Hayhurst.
Hayhurst pitched for the San Diego Padres organization for a couple years, both in the minors and, eventually, in the majors. His story, The Bullpen Gospels
, tells the life of a ball player as it exists for the majority of guys with a uniform on their back, trying to eke out a living and make it to the big leagues and live out their dream. And it is hysterical.
There are stories of bad roommates at spring training and on the road, of practical jokes and long bus rides through the night from stadium to stadium and game to game. There is the pain of almost getting cut and the triumph of winning a championship.
For the most part the story is good-humored fluff. Nothing too serious and plenty of ridiculous stories that read quickly and leave you with a smile on your face. There are a couple serious moments, too, including this bit that Hayhurst acknowledges after an evening in the bullpen hanging out with a three year old who had terminal liver cancer:
The burden of players isn’t to achieve greatness, but to give the feeling of it to everyone he encounters. It was wrong of me even to try to separate life and the game. They were intertwined, meant to be, one affecting the other, one teaching the other, even when the mixture occasionally blows up. It takes a real person, one who understands himself, to use the tool of baseball for something good. For that person, as long as he has a jersey on his back, he has a chance.
It isn’t literary genius, to be sure, but it is a quick, fun read.
Posted by Seth on March 30, 2011 under Mileage Run, Trip Reports |
Two Lovers Point, or Puntan Dos Amantes, is one of the few tourist attractions in Guam. Perched high above Tumon Bay, the point offers perhaps the best views of the coast. It also offers couples an opportunity to express their love for each other, keeping with the history of the site.
The legend of Puntan Dos Amantes tells of a wealthy local family with a beautiful daughter. When the father arranged for the daughter to be married to a Spanish Captain she became distraught and ran off, up the island to a high point along the shore where she met a young local man and they instantly fell in love. Not surprisingly, the father disapproved of the new beau and moved forward with the wedding plans he had arranged. The girl stole off again and, again, met the young boy at their favorite spot atop the cliff. Pursued by her father, the Captain and his soldiers, the two embraced, tied their hair together and leapt from the cliff to their death on the rocks below.
Rather than leaping to their death, couples visiting the site today buy heart-shaped combination locks in the gift shop. They write their names on them and attach them to the fence where they stay forever, or at least until the folks running the park come through and clean them up.
It is pretty clichéd as an experience, but the tourists came in throngs. Bused in 30-50 at a time they came, passing through for their moment atop Guam and atop Two Lovers Point. Five to ten minutes later they were headed out of the little park and back on to their bus to get to whatever the next site on their itinerary is.
The park itself is free to access but it has limited views of the coast line. For that you have to cough up the three dollars to get in to the small lookout facility that juts out from the cliff top. Oh, and if you don’t have a rental car you’re on the hook for a $50 taxi ride round trip from the hotels along Tumon Bay up to the site.
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Posted by Seth on March 29, 2011 under Mileage Run, Trip Reports |
With my trip to the Pacific somewhat rerouted this past weekend I suddenly found myself looking for things to do in Guam. Not being a member of the military my options were pretty limited. With 48 hours on the ground I’d have plenty of time to do some diving and not risk the bends when I boarded my onward flight. And given no other compelling options of things to do I scheduled my day with the folks at Micronesian Divers Association.
I was originally booked for both the morning and afternoon boat trips. Sadly, life got in the way and I ended up working instead of diving in the morning but I made the afternoon boat and got in two pretty mediocre dives.
The first dive, at Barracuda Rock was mostly lacking in coral, sea life and much scenery at all. Still, there were a couple cool swim-through areas and I couldn’t really complain too much. After all, I was diving and that is always a good thing.
The second dive was somewhat lower visibility but better scenery. We followed the captain’s directions in search of a huge anemone but came up empty in finding it (though apparently others on the boat did find it). Instead of that we made friends with a turtle camped out on a coral head.
It is amazing to watch them move underwater. They glide so effortlessly and quickly; keeping up is a challenge and almost certainly means spending more air than you really meant to.
After the turtle experience we headed back towards the boat, cruising along the coral heads and enjoying the scenery.
One of the nice things about this dive is that it maxed out at only 50 feet or so and most of the pretty stuff was up around 15-30 feet. This means more bottom time and better light for actually seeing the stuff down there. Both good things in my book. And we had plenty of time for the dive; the captain wasn’t in much of a hurry to get back. I was down for over an hour on the second dive and had a blast.
I suppose I should confess at this point that there’s no good reason that I should have passed the underwater navigation portion of my certification. The first dive of the day was a drift dive, meaning that navigation didn’t matter much. The second, however, had us returning to the boat. Easier said than done.
It didn’t help that another boat showed up on the mooring line between our boat and where the good stuff was on the dive. Needless to say I was very confused when that boat disappeared a bit later and I thought I was completely lost. Fortunately I was shallow enough that I could easily surface and find the boat, but I was rather embarrassed. Right up to the point that I got back on the boat and several others mentioned that they made the same mistake. At least I was in good company.
Overall it was just mediocre diving. The boat was a bit crowded and the sites aren’t fantastic. That said, it was pretty cheap (~$50 for a two tank boat dive) and certainly beats the heck out of sitting top side. Guam doesn’t offer a lot of options if you’re not looking for a massage parlor. The diving was definitely a welcome alternative.
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Posted by Seth on March 28, 2011 under Book Review, Review |
There are three main lessons that I learned from reading Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next:
- Logistics and speed are unstoppable forces that will define the next several generations of economic development globally;
- The United States has already lost most any chance of keeping pace; and,
- The global economy may never actually cash in on the investments it is making.
The first of these observations is not particularly surprising and the conclusions there are pretty reasonable. The second and third scare me to no end. Indeed, reading a couple steps down the line in the global economic environment laid bare in Aerotropolis, it is quite easy to see the whole system collapsing on itself in a matter of years, assuming we make it that far. That small bits have already experienced such a decline is of little comfort.
The premise of the areotropolis is rather simple. Rather than try to explain it myself I’ll let you understand it in the words of its greatest proponent, John Kasarda through the lens of author Greg Lindsay:
…[R]ather than banish airports to the edge of town and then do our best to avoid them, we will build this century’s cities around them. Why? Because people once chose to live in cities for the wealth of connections they offered socially, financially, intellectually, and so forth. But in the era of globalization we choose cities drawing closer together themselves, linked by fiber-optic cables and jet aircraft.
…
In essence, the aerotropolis of [Kasarda’s]imagination isn’t necessarily a city but a superconductor, a piece of infrastructure promising zero resistance to anyone wanting to set up shop there. Examine [Kasarda’s] initial sketches for one – with the carefully arranged waves of white boxes and office cubes – and you’ll find a city expressly planned on behalf of the companies expected to populate it. An aerotropolis isn’t an airport either, and building one isn’t a matter of having the longest runways or the largest landmass. Frictionlessness is the product of a whole host of attributes, many of which are invisible: tariff-free trade zones, faster customs clearance, fewer and faster permits, and a right-to-work workforce that knows what it’s doing. ‘It’s the way you reduce time, the way you reduce costs, the way you reduce space,’ Kasarda says. ‘The aerotropolis is where the elastic mile, the friction of space, community without propinquity, and trade routes all come together.’
…
[A] third of the value of all the goods made in the world, three trillions dollars’ worth, travels by air while composing barely 1 percent of their weight. Air cargo’s growth outpaced world trade’s by a factor of four-to-one over the last thirty-five years, and blew past global GDP growth by nine-to-one, meaning more and more of what’s worth making and moving (including half of American exports) is aloft. In the Instant age, Kasarda says, ‘The price of oil matters less than the price of speed.’
Building an aerotropolis is a relatively easy thing to do, assuming no political or environmental concerns. Find a plot of land, clear it out and build a world-class airport in the middle. From there, add on industrial, commercial and residential bits in the appropriate ratios and then watch as industry beats down the doors to show up and open shop inside your free-trade zone. Free of tariffs and , in many cases, free of local laws, these aerotropolii represent the free market economy at its most basic level.
The problems that arise are, of course, plentiful. Starting with the political and environmental concerns, there are plenty of reasons for many in the western world to object to such developments. Still, looking at the present evidence, there is no doubt that such developments have been successful. Louisville and Memphis are essentially subsidiaries of UPS and FedEx, respectively. The area surrounding Amsterdam’s Schipol airport is a testimony to the efficacy of global trade and just-in-time delivery of flowers on a scale that is yet to be matched, though Addis Abba is one of several hoping to edge in on that market.
Dulles, Denver and Dallas-Fort Worth are all representative of this not-so-new approach to urban planning. Centralize around a transportation hub, just like ports in the days of yore and train terminals in the not quite so distant past. Today that hub is the airport large enough to easily handle frequent service from Boeing 747F freighters laden with cargo inbound from manufacturing hubs in southeast Asia or agricultural hubs in South America. It is not at all difficult to see how this progression has been made and Lindsay does a phenomenal job of explaining in detail some specific examples of why certain areas have succeeded and other have failed in developing these aerotropolii.
The concept of what makes an aerotropolis is just half the story, however. The economic impact that they can bring to the developing world is the other half, and it scares the hell out of me.
Asia, Africa and the Middle East are the main development targets today. China is in the midst of an unprecedented infrastructure build that is dedicating a tremendous portion of their GDP to highways, high-speed trains and airports. Many of those airports are destined to be aerotropolii. Thailand started a similar effort with Suvarnabhumi, the new international airport in Bangkok. Ho Chi Minh City is doing the same with their new international airport.
In China the development is easy. The local, provincial or national government decrees that an airport will be built on a specific plot of land and that’s the end of the story. It happens – quickly – and those currently there are relocated. In Thailand, however, a similar set of plans resulted in relatives of ministers suddenly operating real estate and logistics operations. When word got out of the coming aerotropolis everyone tried to get in on the deal and real estate prices shot through the roof. The recent coups can be related, in part, to the failure of these plans to get off the ground or the revolt of the people against the abuse of that power.
So there is the risk of political upheaval as the working class feels they’ve been wronged. This potential is more pronounced as those same workers start to profit from the business that the aerotropolii bring in now have the means to afford to protest, rather than to accept whatever they are told to do. And now that the protesters know that the airports are the life-blood of their economies (e.g. the recent Bangkok protests that saw both sides seize airport terminals at various points to stymie the ruling party) the risk is that much more real.
But that isn’t the part that worries me the most. What scares me is the potential for all this investment to be a very efficient and expedient means to spend billions of dollars of someone else’s money in hopes of a return that is impossible to realize. And Lindsay outlines exactly how that will come to pass as the aerotropolii develop and multiply.
There are currently scores of such projects in various stages of development. Can they all possibly be successful? Dubai already almost collapsed once as the highly leveraged construction efforts there saw money and credit dry up in the recent financial crisis.
In effect, Dubai was a giant arbitrage play, a pure experiment in funneling and funding globalization. A tiny city-state with literally nothing – no oil, few people, and little education – sought to become a global capital in a single generation…. That’s why everything was so oversize, including Dubai’s ambitions.
Bangkok failed to move swiftly enough and to avoid corruption, leading to the failure of the aerotropolis there, though not to the collapse of the economy. FedEx has been wooed by China to move their Pacific sort hub from Subic Bay to Baiyun International Airport near Ghangzhou.
First, [the Chinese] drained the pond covering the site – the only reason urban scrubland hasn’t subsumed it already. Then they diverted a river, paved over its marshes, and pumped concrete into caves underneath. FedEx had sought equally drastic changed to China’s legal code, rewriting customs and aviation statutes to grant itself an unlimited number of flights…. True to form, doing so required a year of tortuous negotiations with more than a hundred agencies and bureaucracies. Once given the green light, construction of the six-lane highway linking the hub to the Delta’s factories had taken all of six months.
But what does such a shift mean to Subic Bay? Or to the other local facilities that have been operating as regional cargo hubs? For now, they are struggling to fight back, to find tenants for the space and to keep their economies alive. Why have similar projects in Hanoi or Saigon failed (or not been as rapidly successful)? They can offer cheaper labor, but the total pool of raw materials and labor is still larger in China. So the Vietnamese versions strain to get sufficient traction and businesses in their aerotropolii. But the cost of developing them is already sunk.
But even the shift of FedEx into the airport is no guarantee. There are still other areas desperate for similar growth and they are somewhat ruthless in their pursuit of the business.
As the Hong Kong economist Steven Cheung once explained their attitude, ‘You want a business license? The locality will assign someone to do the walking and talking for you. Want a building permit? They will give you one with money-back guarantees. Unhappy about that dirty creek passing through the site? They may offer to build a small lake for you…. They sell their cheap electricity, sell their parks and entertainment, sell their easy transportation, sell their water supply, sell their glorious history and even sell how good looking their girls are – no exaggeration!’
There are hospitals operating in India that see themselves as the far end of a long-haul commuter healthcare road. Just like the Polish doctors who commute to England to work the weekend shift and are home Monday morning on a cheap flight, these hospitals are luring in patients from abroad with the promise of top-quality healthcare at bargain prices. Infrastructure is being built but there is no guarantee that the Ray Kinsella-styled plan will come through. What if they build it and no one comes?
The danger is that someone else will siphon [patients] away with lower costs and better connectivity in the form of nonstop flights; layovers are not an option when you’ve just come out of traction.
Indeed, Hyderabad is already trying to steal the market from Mumbai and Bangalore. The brand new airport in Hyderabad was built with an eye towards being a Healthport, among other things.
The book highlights tells several other stories, from a man-made city built literally in the middle of the ocean in Korea to the amazing fresh flowers market that is centered in Amsterdam, though showing signs of sprouting in Africa and China. And in each example precious little attention is paid to what happens to the legacy locations as the new sites go up. No book can cover everything, but at least mentioning the potential for billions of dollars of invested funds to end up with no return is a worthwhile acknowledgement to make in my book.
And that’s what ultimately has me scared. Not all of these aerotropolii will be successful. There are simply too many competing to offer the same services in concentrated regional centers. Some will almost certainly succeed and it will provide a boon to the local economy of the winners. Right up until the competitor down the road offers up cheaper, faster and better services a couple years later. Moving the factories is an expensive undertaking, with short-term effects on to the balance sheet of the company in question and with potentially devastating long-term repercussions to the aerotropolis that loses the business.
The book is an interesting read and definitely worth checking out, both from a global economics and a aerophile perspective. And I actually believe that most of the predictions of growth are likely to come true; all current evidence certainly supports them. I just fear for the fallout that comes with those developments and its impact on the global economy. For someone to win big in these efforts someone else is likely to lose badly.
Posted by Seth on March 26, 2011 under Dining, Flying, Mileage Run, Review, Trip Reports |
Traveling from New York City to Guam in a single day is a challenge, to say the least. The good news is that Continental offers a pretty reasonable schedule that can get you all the way there (and on to a few other out-lying areas if you’re so motivated) in a single day. The bad news is that it is nearly 24 hours of travel, and that’s assuming the best-case scenario for the connections.
For me the itinerary is pretty simple. Start off at the ungodly hour of 4am with an alarm clock buzzer that causes shock and awe, but not in the good way. From there, it is a fight to grab a cab from the Club Kids who are just wrapping up their night out on the town (I lost a couple rounds but eventually won) and then the quick ride to LaGuardia. The Presidents Club lounge is not yet open so any dreams of a Bloody Mary or a granola bar are dashed, but at least the line at security was minimal.
The flight from LaGuardia to Houston was uneventful, mostly because I was asleep the better part of it. Arrival into Houston was right on time and a 45 minute connection to the Honolulu flight was easy to make, though not so much in terms of time to visit a Presidents Club there, either. I was “late” to boarding which put me a bit in the middle of the zoo that is loading up ~200 passengers for a flight to the islands, and for some reason the gate agents were insistent that there was no priority boarding for elites this morning. My face showing a dumbfound incomprehension of why that should be was met with a reasonable agent (not the one I first encountered) and eventually I boarded the flight.
Oh, there was also the part where they told me that I had to change seats to help keep a couple together (something I generally do without objection, though I prefer to be asked not told). But then they weren’t really sure where i was supposed to actually sit or where all the other parties were supposed to be. Given the list of seats in play I managed to figure it out, but not before the folks on the plane had already done so. Needless to say, when I got to my seat and tried to start shuffling all the other players who had already moved themselves they were very confused.
Continental’s service up front from Houston and Newark to Honolulu may be considered a modified version of the BusinessFirst offering but the seats are still pretty good for a daytime flight and the food is still one of the better options available headed to the 50th state. Lunch is a five-course marathon, starting with a salmon appetizer and ending with an ice cream sundae. The truly shameful part is that that coach cabin has only food for purchase available on the 8.5 hour journey. Had my upgrade not come through I would’ve been in big trouble trying to find a decent meal or two for the second segment during the short connection.
As I wrapped up my ice cream sundae (caramel & chocolate, plus whipped cream, if you’re curious) along with my traditional beverage side-car I happened to look up at the moving map screen. Nearly two hours into the flight and we’re still in Texas; just short of El Paso, it turns out. I know Texas is big, but damn. I was not expecting to still be here.
Overall, a relatively uneventful trip so far, which is really the best one can hope for most days. With any luck the rest of the 23-ish hour journey will be similarly smooth.
Posted by Seth on March 23, 2011 under Mileage Run, Trip Reports |
As part of the planning for my trip to Hong Kong and Guam this weekend I have finally started to look for some hotel options. In the end I’ll probably stay at the same place I stayed last time; it is a good price and a good location for a decent hotel. But I was curious what other options I have so I did some digging.
Expedia.com was nice enough to present their opaque bidding options to me so I figured I’d take a look. If the border of the neighborhood was reasonable enough Id be happy to save a few dollars and see a new hotel. Somehow, however, I do not think that their map of Kowloon is completely accurate.
That’s right, folks. Apparently Kowloon covers most of North America.
Sorry, Expedia, but with that level of incompetence I won’t be booking with you any time soon.
Posted by Seth on March 23, 2011 under points |
Amtrak has launched another great spring bonus program for its Amtrak Guest Rewards Program. Members who register will earn double AGR points on all travel from March 21 through May 6, 2011. Starting on National train Day – May 7, 2011 – and continuing through May 21, 2011 AGR members will earn triple points.
This promotion pretty much matches last year’s spring promo and it is a good one. AGR points are pretty valuable and they have a number of very cool award options in their program above and beyond the typical stuff.
Remember that registration is required for this promo.
UPDATE: Stupid Amtrak not permitting direct links to the registration page. Go here (http://register.myamtrak.com/home/index) and look at the bottom of the page.
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Posted by Seth on March 22, 2011 under Internet, News |
When Continental Airlines announced their deal with LiveTV to provide in-flight television service a couple years ago there was an additional piece to the deal. LiveTV was also supposed to provide in-flight internet service via their Kiteline product. It was going to be lighter (i.e. cheaper) for the airlines and cheaper for passengers, offering basic connectivity for passengers in the air.
As time marched on, however, that plan drifted away and then was finally shelved as LiveTV eventually admitted that the Kiteline project was dead. They never managed to get the antenna built the way they needed it and ultimately they decided to let the project die. It was too little, too late at that point to be a competitive service.
Fast forward to September 2010 where JetBlue announced that the LiveTV product was going to space. Rather than sticking with a terrestrial solution, they are going satellite-based, using the latest Ka-band technology available at the time. Actually, it isn’t even available yet. The ViaSat satellite is due to launch in 2011 and the service will come online once that happens.
Continental executed a letter of intent with LiveTV today to expand the carrier’s DirecTV installation to include the new ViaSat-based product. Just like they intended to offer the Kiteline solution a couple years ago. The first installs are not expected into aircraft until 2012 and the service is expected to be installed on the roughly 200 aircraft that Continental has currently fitted with DirecTV service or in line to be installed.
This is just the first of many steps to getting the service into production and on to the aircraft. Lots of details to still work out, including things like an install schedule and FAA approval of the hardware, not to mention actually getting a working product operating. Still, it is good to see progress on this front.
Faster, cheaper internet connectivity is a good thing to have.
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Posted by Seth on March 22, 2011 under frequent flyer, News |
JetBlue continues to add international interline partners, expanding the number of destinations accessible on a single ticket. Today’s addition of Virgin Atlantic brings connectivity between four airports in the United Kingdom and four JetBlue hub airports in the United States, with onward connections available.
The Virgin Atlantic routes that are being linked are:
- Boston – London (Heathrow)
- New York (Kennedy) – London (Heathrow)
- Orlando – Glasgow
- Orlando – London (Gatwick)
- Orlando – Manchester
- Washington (Dulles) – London (Heathrow)
This is an interline agreement only; there is no frequent flyer program reciprocity yet. Still, always good to see more options appearing for such connections. Flights are only bookable through Virgin Atlantic or travel agents right now but that will likely change in the near future given that JetBlue has recently started offering interline booking directly on its own website for some partners.
One interesting competition note here is that interline connecting flights between Kennedy and Heathrow are now available on both Virgin Atlantic and American Airlines. The flights on American can earn TrueBlue points while the Virgin Atlantic flights cannot. It will be interesting to see if that skews the passenger traffic one direction or the other.
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Posted by Seth on March 17, 2011 under News |
Interesting report from Damien over at upgrd noting that Lufthansa has pulled Tokyo off the market. The change is in effect for flights through 28 March at this point. Flights previously scheduled for service to Tokyo are now routing to Osaka and Nagoya with a stop in Seoul in both directions. Keeping flight crews out of Tokyo overnights explains the Seoul stops and there are plenty of reasons to have the flights terminate in Osaka or Nagoya rather than Tokyo.
It does raise the question, however, of what some of the other airlines are doing for flight crews on trips to or from Tokyo. As of today US-based carriers are mostly running their schedules as normal (the new Haneda flights are being suspended), without the re-routes or alternate destinations. And while flights departing Tokyo are packed the inbounds have seen a "measurable decline" in traffic, according to United Airlines.
Needless to say, my planned trip to Tokyo next weekend is now off. The only question remaining is whether I try to do it in the fall or try to head somewhere else in Asia now. I guess it all depends on how flexible the phone agents are.
Posted by Seth on March 17, 2011 under Trip Reports |
Normally the stamps I’m collecting are of the passport varietal. I went out of my way to get one from Luxembourg, for example. And flying 22 hours to spend only 24 hours in Mauritius could probably be seen as going out of the way a bit for that one, too. One on the small island in the Indian Ocean, however, it was a different sort of stamp collection that I got to explore.
The postal service of Mauritius has a rich and storied history, somewhat surprising for such a small plot of land in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Post service has been operating for hundreds of years and the local service was responsible for many developments on the island, including the establishment of rail service and air service. Plus, the island happens to have been the issuer of the most valuable stamp in the world. There are a number of stories to tell.
They are all told at the Mauritius Postal Museum in Port Louis.
The postal service on the island began in 1772 with a newspaper publisher. Subscribers to the weekly would have it delivered to their home free of charge, along with any other pending mail. Non-subscribers could pay a small fee to have the post delivered as well. The service declined late into the century and was all but dead by the time the British took over rule in 1810.
By 1834 the British had established a formal post service (they tried the newspaper gig, too) and in 1846 the initial rates for postage were established, both for "town" and inland delivery. In 1847 the island began its long history of issuing awesome collectible stamps. The two "Post Office" stamps of 1847 are considered to be the first stamps to bear that phrase and worth quite a lot these days; only 27 remain. They also kicked off a philatelic lineage that is unmatched.
Since then the island country has turned out stamps celebrating kings and queens, historical milestone and just about anything else that seems like a good idea at the time. They issue about 20 sets of stamps each year. And just like in the early days, the stamps are all printed in Britain before being transferred to the island for sale.
In addition to an impressive collection of stamps (including the famous "Post Office" stamps of which I was unable to get a good photo), the museum tells the history of the postal service and has much of the old equipment on display. Tracing the history and the development of technology and mail distribution in the nation is a great way to pass an hour or so in the Port Louis waterfront area.
They also happen to sell post cards in the gift shop, but not stamps. For those you’ll have to walk next door and buy them at the regular post office window. Pretty reasonable rates for the post card stamps, considering the isolation of the island.
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