Posted by Seth on December 24, 2011 under Trip Reports | 
It was a rough start to Hanukkah this year. Thanks to some moderately poor planning on my part as well as travel the first three nights were more or less a blur. The first was celebrated at home but we were in the midst of packing for our trip to India and Sri Lanka so there was less actual celebrating than there probably should have been. Nights two and three would have likely resulted in arrest had we tried to light the menorah, thanks to the fact that we were on airplanes at the time. Cue night four.
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| The caretaker, lighting some of the oil-burning lamps in the chandelier |
By the time the fourth night rolled around we had finished our thirty-odd hour trek from New York City to Kochi. Sure, we were horribly jet lagged, but we still headed out to see some of the local sights, including theParadesi Synagogue, the oldest in India and one of the older continually operating congregations in the world. It was a Friday, however, and that meant no tours available (despite the advice of the guide book, though I shouldâve known better). But there was a phone number on a paper taped to the wall mentioning services.
Six years ago, when planning our first trip to India a visit to this synagogue was one of the things I was very excited by. Sadly, I couldnât make it work that time around. This time, however, we were here and it was both a Friday night and a holiday. There was no way I was going to miss the opportunity. Yeah, I made the call.
The local Chabad house runs services with a small group of ex-pats who live in the area and whatever visitors they happen to have in town that week. In our case the group numbered about 40, though only 20 counted according to their traditions. Still, we were invited inside to celebrate Hanukkah and the Sabbath, and we did in a very Indian way.
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| Inside the synagogue |
The synagogue building dates to 1568 so there is more than a little bit of history inside the walls. The story of the Cochin Jews is actually pretty well documented elsewhere and I donât have anything new to offer to that context so Iâll save that part of the story for others to tell. But we did get to experience the synagogue in a rather different way than most tourists, and not only because we got to keep our shoes on.
Normally visitors are required to remove their shoes to help protect the floor tiles. There are several hundred of the tiles, each hand painted and unique, imported from China. Theyâre just one of many beautiful and distinctive bits that contributes to the overall character of the building.
There are the chandeliers, many of which are still oil-burning rather than electric. At one point during services the power went out and we had a couple minutes by candle-light that was truly inspiring. There is the double pulpit, one upstairs and one in the middle of the ground floor. And there is the impressive collection of torahs, one of which is crowned by an actual gold crown gifted to the community by one of the local maharajah.
And, of course, we were there for Hanukkah, so there was the lighting of the menorah that night prior to shabbat starting. Theyâre old school, with an oil-burning model that was pretty cool. And unsurprisingly, it was a bit of a pain to get lit. Still, the sound of the community singing the prayers and songs together was a very uplifting moment.
We met a few of the others in the group that night, in no small part due to the fact that everything was conducted only in Hebrew and there were some issues following along with the service. No matter the reason, it was still a great way to meet a few locals, some tourists and a couple of guys who are making a documentary about the community. Iâm pretty sure Iâll be in some of the B-roll footage.
There was a 5th night coda to the celebration; the restaurant we dined in tonight happened to be the where the public menorah is lit every night so we got to share that experience again. And this time I had a beer with me. Still, it had nothing on the experience of celebrating the holiday in a 450+ year old building and with a community that runs back well longer.
Posted by Seth on December 23, 2011 under Flying, Review, Trip Reports |
Actually, the suggestion that the chaos is under control is probably unfair. There was a tiny semblance of order, but it was only because I think everyone was tired for being awake at 5am, not because there was really any organization to the crazy.
This morning we flew from Chennai to Kochi, a quick hour across the southern tip of India on Jet Airways. The flight was ridiculously early when we booked it, a 6:55am departure. Then the schedule changes started to come in and we ended up, after 3 changes in a 6 week period, with a 6:15am flight, even though the boarding pass printed as a 6:25 departure. One last change in the 5 hours between OLCI and departure is no big deal, right?? Thanks to jet lag we were up at 4:30am anyways so at least we didn’t miss it.
The check-in process was typical for any Indian airport, I suppose. Only ticketed passengers (and, yes, you need a paper copy even if you have an e-Ticket) are permitted past the first security guards. Then there is a scrum/line to get checked bags screened and tagged. Then another scrum for check-in. We actually managed to do OK through those, partly because I don’t think the locals wanted to offend us and partly because we’re mostly bigger than them and I don’t mind pushing back a little.
Then it was into the line for security. Apparently there are actually two lines at this point, though one of them is not labeled. The regular line was moving well enough thanks to many frisking points open. But for those passengers who were running late there was a phantom line adjacent to the regular one. A steady flow of folks seemed to be moving past us as we waiting, mumbling something and waving boarding passes as they scurried past to the front of the checkpoint.
My other favorite part of the security line was the frisking process. Everyone gets frisked passing through the checkpoint. It is fast, efficient and done in a very respectful and professional manner. I was impressed.
The flight was rather uneventful. Exit row booked online 5 hours prior to the flight and the middle seat was empty between us. Blue skies flying over the clouds with the occasional mountain peeking through.
And then a full day of touristing in Kochi. More on that soon enough. Now it is time to reset my body clock and get on the local time zone.
Posted by Seth on December 22, 2011 under Dining, Flying, Trip Reports |
Flights from New York City to western Europe are generally too short for anything remotely resembling a good night’s rest. In many cases even a chance of a decent nap is pretty low. The key to having a chance, however, is to be done eating before clearing the edge of Canada. That generally means at least 4.5 hours until landing, leaving a 4 hour window for sleep before the attendants have to put the cabin back together for arrival.
And so I was watching the in-flight map as we departed Newark for Frankfurt last night, trying to figure out how we were doing on the meal as we headed east. When the appetizers showed up we were over Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. Not good for hoping to be done with the meal before clearing Canada. On the plus side, the food was quite good, a pleasant surprise in quality and quantity. I even managed to skip the Fernet Branca, going to sleep without that flavor in my mouth for the first time in a long time on a Lufthansa long-haul flight.
By the time the meal was done we were 3:45 out from landing. I slept almost all of that, even in the angled seats of Lufthansa business class. We were fortunate to arrive to a gate at the terminal rather than a remote stand and from there wended our way through the terminals and the SkyTrain to find some lounge time.
Our onward flight to Chennai departed from B42, directly adjacent to the new Terminal B Senator Lounge. The new lounge is quite a welcome improvement over the old B lounge, though it still suffers from crowding at the peak morning departure bank; the wait for a shower was about 30 minutes and our layover wasn’t long enough to make that work.
And then it was time to head out to the gate and board our flight to Chennai. Another 8.5 hours in the sky with Lufthansa as we begin this crazy adventure.
Tags: Canada, Chennai, Dining, Frankfurt, in flight, India, Lounge, Lufthansa, New York City, Newark, NYE2011, Photos
Posted by Seth on November 27, 2011 under Hotel, Trip Reports |
Apparently some hotels in India have learned from the airlines in the USA about how to book their properties – with more guests than they have rooms available. I suppose I should at least be happy I was informed a month in advance, right? Still, with room inventory drying up in Kochi (Cochin) rapidly for Christmas week getting a replacement is not going to be pretty. Thanks to an email I received from hotels.com I’m stuck in that position.
Last week I finally booked our hotel room for the four nights we’ll be there. At least I thought I did. I got the confirmation email so I figured I was all set:
Turns out that wasn’t really the case. Late last night I got this email from the company:
This is an urgent message regarding your reservation with the Hotel Arches for 12/23/2011. Unfortunately the hotel is unable to accept your reservation for your upcoming stay. Due to these unforeseen circumstances, we would like to offer you comparable alternate accommodations.
Your reservation has not been cancelled, but due to a limited amount of availability it is very important that we speak with you as soon as possible.
The agent explained it that the hotel called them and denied the reservation I had made, despite my having paid in full for the room. Not good at all. Still, given the opportunity I figured I’d make a go of trying to get the best I can out of the deal. Like maybe a big upgrade for the same price. They confirmed the reservation, after all.
I tried to be reasonable for starters, looking for something else in the same neighborhood around the same price point. They had this one listed on their site:
Imagine my surprise when the agent called to confirm the room and was told that it did not actually exist. Craptacular. The only other room they’ve got available in the same area is a much cheaper guest house. I’ve booked a backup reservation there while working the other bits but I’m still hoping for something better to get out of the deal. I’d like to avoid the Holiday Inn over in the new part of town (one of the other options I was given) and if I can swing the Vivanta by Taj (lists at $400+/night!) I’d be quite psyched. But I’m not betting on that actually working out.
Back to the drawing board…
Posted by Seth on November 25, 2011 under News, Trip Reports |
Posit: People think an airline might be financially shaky.
Consequence: People stop buying flights on said airline.
Result: Pretty soon it is financially shaky.
Conclusion: You can make airlines fail.
Please forgive the paraphrasing of one of my favorite movies, but I thought it was a great view into how things can go awry with an airline. And, in my case, it is nearly exactly what happened.
For our trip to India and Sri Lanka over New Years we needed some local flights. Last time we were in India we flew on Kingfisher and SpiceJet and enjoyed them both and I was quite willing to consider them again for this trip. Kingfisher had flights on the days and times we needed them and they were actually $10-20 less per person than the other cheapest fares available. Yet I still didn’t book those flights. Because Kingfisher has been appearing financially shaky lately.
The company has missed payments on fuel bills and otherwise decided to cut costs, leading to ad hoc flight cancelations randomly. That’s normally enough to cause me to shy away, especially on a trip where our time is limited and there will be some non-refundable expenses outside the airfare. So I booked elsewhere.
A couple of days later I see the news that I probably made the correct choice: one of the routes I was considering booking with Kingfisher is no longer being operated. Whoopsie. Sure, it meant rearranging our schedule a bit in India to skip the COK-CMB route but I did it without hesitation once I saw the potential issues with the Kingfisher flights. And I have no regrets at all.
I’m also not going to pretend that the $150 in lost revenue from me is what caused the flight to be pulled from the schedule, but the coincidence of the timing was awfully convenient.
ps- Bonus points (and maybe a drink chit or two) if you can name the movie.
Posted by Seth on November 20, 2011 under Flying, Trip Reports |
I like to think that I have a pretty solid grasp of how revenue and inventory management work together within the airlines to control the price of a flight. I understand fare rules, inventory allocations and routing rules and I can generally figure out what’s going on. Heck, I’ve even built tools that help find the information and distill it to simple numbers. So I was incredibly surprised this weekend when I went to purchase a few "local" flights for our New Years trip to South Asia. Needless to say, the numbers were not playing nice.
I got an award flight into India using my OnePass miles from Continental and a revenue ticket on the return from Colombo, Sri Lanka on a combination of Emirates and British Airways. That part was relatively easy, though I did run into some issues booking one of the return options (now since discarded) via EgyptAir from Bangkok. But that was nothing compared to the crazy I experienced trying to buy the domestic flights in India and the short hop from Chennai to Colombo.
Here’s a screen shot from the ITA pricing engine for one of the flights we wanted:
Pretty simple, really. Based on that we should have been able to get the flight for about $200 without much trouble, right? So I started checking around a few different booking engines. Thanks to the various referral link/rebate options for flight bookings I was checking three different engines, Expedia, Vayama and CheapoAir (n.b. – those links earn me that rebate if you use them). The rebates offered vary so there is some flexibility in figuring out which is best deal but, all else being equal, I should be able to get the published fare from each, right??
Not at all.
For that flight which nominally cost $200 the options I got were $257 or $247 from Vayama and CheapoAir, respectively:
Exact same flight, date, time and fare bucket, but a price that was 25% higher. Zoinks! Fortunately Expedia was able to book the flight at the "correct" price for that one.
For the flight from Chennai to Cochin a few days earlier, however, CheapoAir was about $50 less than Expedia and actually ended up being less than the published price in ITA thanks to a coupon that they had published, a coupon that didn’t work on the above itinerary.
Similarly, for the flight to Colombo the ITA price seemed decent enough, with flights at the right time for what we wanted:
Once again, Vayama was terribly over-priced, even including the click-through rebate earnt:
And Expedia was still showing the published ITA rate:
But don’t forget to check the operating carrier, too. A quick visit to the SriLankan website pulled up this price:
That converts to USD $213 at the current exchange rates, a full $80 less than the fare published in ITA and a whopping $140 less than what Vayama wanted for the exact same rate.
So, is there a moral to the story? Maybe it is this: Airfare pricing is horribly inconsistent and near impossible for mere mortals to effectively and easily compare. It also further enforces my fears of how much worse it could get if the airlines continue to pull information out of the GDSes and move towards their direct sales model. In this case the direct model ended up saving me a few bucks, but only after quite a bit of digging to find the best price.
It really shouldn’t be this hard.
Related Posts:
Tags: award, Bangkok, British Airways, Chennai, Cochin, Colombo, Continental, EgyptAir, Emirates, frequent flyer, India, Jet Airways, Kochi, Madras, NYE2011, points, Sri Lanka, SriLankan
Posted by Seth on October 22, 2011 under Trip Reports |
I’ve been working lately on cobbling together a rather ridiculous series of flights for our winter vacation this year. The plan is mostly South Asia, focusing on the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka, plus a quick stop in Bangkok on the way home. At least that’s the theory.
Initially I booked the trip using points for award travel round-trip between New York City and India. Since then the itinerary has morphed a bit so I’ll be changing things up (thank goodness for free award changes as an elite!) but I actually need to get a couple of the tickets purchased in order to make those changes, just in case. And it is proving incredibly difficult to buy at least one of the tickets.
If you had asked me a month ago, before I started all of this, I would have bet that the ticket on Sri Lankan would have been the hard one to acquire. I would have lost that bet. The transaction with them was smooth as could be, handled fully online and it was only a couple days later that American Express called to make sure that I really was buying a couple one way flights from Colombo to Bangkok in early January. It wasn’t even a big enough risk for them to call immediately.
Buying the flight from Bangkok to JFK on EgyptAir, however, is proving to be a ridiculous mess. I started with their website which looks pretty slick, at least for the flight selection search bits. It showed the fare I had seen otherwise online (about $150 less for each ticket than any other channel) and I went through the long process of entering in all our personal data to book the flight. At the final payment screen, however, the transaction was denied. Repeatedly.
My first call was to Visa to make sure my card was OK. It wasn’t, but they cleared that up. Waiting two hours didn’t help; still denied. Another 24 hours later and still denied. Even more strange, however, was that the credit card company didn’t even show the most recent transactions. It is as if EgyptAir never even tried to authorize the card; they just rejected the transaction. It took a couple calls but eventually I got in touch with someone in the EgyptAir ticketing office in New York to try to process the transaction. The first agent saw the reservation and the price I was quoted online. She transferred me to another agent to handle the transaction who promptly informed me that the fare was $300 higher. Ugggh.
So long as I was not going to get the discounted fare I figured I’d try to get some other value for the transaction. American Express offers bonus Membership Rewards points for travel booked through their portal so why not give that a go, right? Apparently their system is not robust enough to handle selling a one-way ticket in business class from Bangkok to New York City:
That’s is simply ludicrous, especially considering that probably a dozen airlines or more offer service on that route with a single connection.
And so I’m essentially left with a bevy of third party online travel agencies through which I can try to book the flight, but now I’m faced with wading through their differing fares and service fees to find the right price. Plus I’m stuck with dealing with one of them for service going forward rather than dealing with the airline directly. What a mess.
It shouldn’t be this complicated to spend money on a plane ticket.
Tags: American Express, Bangkok, Egypt, EgyptAir, India, internet, Membership Rewards, New York City, NYE2011, Sri Lanka, Thailand
Posted by Seth on August 1, 2011 under News |
Star Alliance and Air India announced yesterday that the long-pending integration of the airline into the world’s largest global alliance has been suspended. This is the latest in a series of delays announced regarding the carrier’s intention to join the group.
Star Alliance CEO, Jaan Albrecht said: "With the collective decision to put the integration efforts on hold today we aim to contribute to Air India’s flexibility to concentrate on its ongoing strategic reorientation. In this process our member carriers will continue to provide assistance to Air India wherever required."
It was just a couple months ago that the carrier stated they felt ready to finally join the alliance. Apparently that was all bluff, however. Given the financial turmoil the carrier is currently in the midst of it is not particularly surprising that this move came about.
The real question now for the alliance is what happens in India. Kingfisher has already committed to the oneworld alliance. There had been additional rumors of Jet Airways joining with Star Alliance but that was apparently on hold until Air India could get things figured out. With this latest suspension of the Air India efforts could that open up the opportunity for Jet to make a move?
The air travel market in India is huge and growing rapidly. Getting partners in that market is a very important move for these alliances. Sadly, it seems that Star Alliance latched on to the wrong initial partner and is now paying the price for that decision.
Related Posts:
Posted by Seth on June 1, 2011 under News |
Air India has been in the news a fair amount the past couple weeks, doing their best to test the theory that any publicity is good publicity. It is hard to tell which way that will play out for them at this point, but they’re definitely trying it would seem.
Shining Star (Alliance)
First up was their announcement that they’re finally ready to join Star Alliance. The initial invitation to join the alliance was extended in 2007, a long, long time in the world of airline alliances. Alas, the company struggled with IT issues and other integration problems and has seen their proposed join date postponed time and again. But as of May 2011 they believe they’ve finally got all the pieces in place to make that the leap into the alliance.
There is still no specific date set for the airline to join up and it is not entirely clear that the IT issues that are supposedly resolved were the only stumbling block. But this development certainly bodes well for the airline eventually actually making it into the alliance. Is that good for passengers? Sure. More options is always better. And this will certainly open up a significant number of smaller destinations within India for both earning and redemption. But that doesn’t mean I’ll be going out of my way to fly with them any time soon.
Black Hole
Speaking of opening up more, smaller destinations in India, this past week that was actually a bit of a problem for the carrier. It seems that a number of flights were cancelled when the airline was unable to acquire fuel for its aircraft. The fuel issues, isolated at a few airports in the southern part of the country, were apparently caused by the airline’s failure to pay its bills for previous fuel deliveries. Apparently the state-owned fuel companies are refusing to extend credit to the carrier for said purchases.
Moreover, the response from an airline spokesman who refused to be named is a bit disconcerting.
This problem is being resolved. We expect to pay for our fuel and also to obtain some assistance from the aviation ministry.
The first part of the quote certainly makes sense but the second part – expecting assistance from the government – is certainly worrisome if you’re expecting the company to still be operating in the near future. If they’re talking about needing government support then that would suggest they cannot survive on their own. That’s a very precarious position to be in. Certainly the 10-day pilot strike earlier in the month didn’t help the situation either.
So which is it, Shining Star or Black Hole?
The optimist in me wants to believe that they can turn things around and actually start to make money. Maybe being a part of the global alliance will push things in that direction and get them the interline traffic they need for that to happen. But given the current competition they face both inside their borders and on the international stage it doesn’t seem particularly likely.
Posted by Seth on March 28, 2011 under Book Review, Review |
There are three main lessons that I learned from reading Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next:
- Logistics and speed are unstoppable forces that will define the next several generations of economic development globally;
- The United States has already lost most any chance of keeping pace; and,
- The global economy may never actually cash in on the investments it is making.
The first of these observations is not particularly surprising and the conclusions there are pretty reasonable. The second and third scare me to no end. Indeed, reading a couple steps down the line in the global economic environment laid bare in Aerotropolis, it is quite easy to see the whole system collapsing on itself in a matter of years, assuming we make it that far. That small bits have already experienced such a decline is of little comfort.
The premise of the areotropolis is rather simple. Rather than try to explain it myself I’ll let you understand it in the words of its greatest proponent, John Kasarda through the lens of author Greg Lindsay:
…[R]ather than banish airports to the edge of town and then do our best to avoid them, we will build this century’s cities around them. Why? Because people once chose to live in cities for the wealth of connections they offered socially, financially, intellectually, and so forth. But in the era of globalization we choose cities drawing closer together themselves, linked by fiber-optic cables and jet aircraft.
…
In essence, the aerotropolis of [Kasarda’s]imagination isn’t necessarily a city but a superconductor, a piece of infrastructure promising zero resistance to anyone wanting to set up shop there. Examine [Kasarda’s] initial sketches for one – with the carefully arranged waves of white boxes and office cubes – and you’ll find a city expressly planned on behalf of the companies expected to populate it. An aerotropolis isn’t an airport either, and building one isn’t a matter of having the longest runways or the largest landmass. Frictionlessness is the product of a whole host of attributes, many of which are invisible: tariff-free trade zones, faster customs clearance, fewer and faster permits, and a right-to-work workforce that knows what it’s doing. ‘It’s the way you reduce time, the way you reduce costs, the way you reduce space,’ Kasarda says. ‘The aerotropolis is where the elastic mile, the friction of space, community without propinquity, and trade routes all come together.’
…
[A] third of the value of all the goods made in the world, three trillions dollars’ worth, travels by air while composing barely 1 percent of their weight. Air cargo’s growth outpaced world trade’s by a factor of four-to-one over the last thirty-five years, and blew past global GDP growth by nine-to-one, meaning more and more of what’s worth making and moving (including half of American exports) is aloft. In the Instant age, Kasarda says, ‘The price of oil matters less than the price of speed.’
Building an aerotropolis is a relatively easy thing to do, assuming no political or environmental concerns. Find a plot of land, clear it out and build a world-class airport in the middle. From there, add on industrial, commercial and residential bits in the appropriate ratios and then watch as industry beats down the doors to show up and open shop inside your free-trade zone. Free of tariffs and , in many cases, free of local laws, these aerotropolii represent the free market economy at its most basic level.
The problems that arise are, of course, plentiful. Starting with the political and environmental concerns, there are plenty of reasons for many in the western world to object to such developments. Still, looking at the present evidence, there is no doubt that such developments have been successful. Louisville and Memphis are essentially subsidiaries of UPS and FedEx, respectively. The area surrounding Amsterdam’s Schipol airport is a testimony to the efficacy of global trade and just-in-time delivery of flowers on a scale that is yet to be matched, though Addis Abba is one of several hoping to edge in on that market.
Dulles, Denver and Dallas-Fort Worth are all representative of this not-so-new approach to urban planning. Centralize around a transportation hub, just like ports in the days of yore and train terminals in the not quite so distant past. Today that hub is the airport large enough to easily handle frequent service from Boeing 747F freighters laden with cargo inbound from manufacturing hubs in southeast Asia or agricultural hubs in South America. It is not at all difficult to see how this progression has been made and Lindsay does a phenomenal job of explaining in detail some specific examples of why certain areas have succeeded and other have failed in developing these aerotropolii.
The concept of what makes an aerotropolis is just half the story, however. The economic impact that they can bring to the developing world is the other half, and it scares the hell out of me.
Asia, Africa and the Middle East are the main development targets today. China is in the midst of an unprecedented infrastructure build that is dedicating a tremendous portion of their GDP to highways, high-speed trains and airports. Many of those airports are destined to be aerotropolii. Thailand started a similar effort with Suvarnabhumi, the new international airport in Bangkok. Ho Chi Minh City is doing the same with their new international airport.
In China the development is easy. The local, provincial or national government decrees that an airport will be built on a specific plot of land and that’s the end of the story. It happens – quickly – and those currently there are relocated. In Thailand, however, a similar set of plans resulted in relatives of ministers suddenly operating real estate and logistics operations. When word got out of the coming aerotropolis everyone tried to get in on the deal and real estate prices shot through the roof. The recent coups can be related, in part, to the failure of these plans to get off the ground or the revolt of the people against the abuse of that power.
So there is the risk of political upheaval as the working class feels they’ve been wronged. This potential is more pronounced as those same workers start to profit from the business that the aerotropolii bring in now have the means to afford to protest, rather than to accept whatever they are told to do. And now that the protesters know that the airports are the life-blood of their economies (e.g. the recent Bangkok protests that saw both sides seize airport terminals at various points to stymie the ruling party) the risk is that much more real.
But that isn’t the part that worries me the most. What scares me is the potential for all this investment to be a very efficient and expedient means to spend billions of dollars of someone else’s money in hopes of a return that is impossible to realize. And Lindsay outlines exactly how that will come to pass as the aerotropolii develop and multiply.
There are currently scores of such projects in various stages of development. Can they all possibly be successful? Dubai already almost collapsed once as the highly leveraged construction efforts there saw money and credit dry up in the recent financial crisis.
In effect, Dubai was a giant arbitrage play, a pure experiment in funneling and funding globalization. A tiny city-state with literally nothing – no oil, few people, and little education – sought to become a global capital in a single generation…. That’s why everything was so oversize, including Dubai’s ambitions.
Bangkok failed to move swiftly enough and to avoid corruption, leading to the failure of the aerotropolis there, though not to the collapse of the economy. FedEx has been wooed by China to move their Pacific sort hub from Subic Bay to Baiyun International Airport near Ghangzhou.
First, [the Chinese] drained the pond covering the site – the only reason urban scrubland hasn’t subsumed it already. Then they diverted a river, paved over its marshes, and pumped concrete into caves underneath. FedEx had sought equally drastic changed to China’s legal code, rewriting customs and aviation statutes to grant itself an unlimited number of flights…. True to form, doing so required a year of tortuous negotiations with more than a hundred agencies and bureaucracies. Once given the green light, construction of the six-lane highway linking the hub to the Delta’s factories had taken all of six months.
But what does such a shift mean to Subic Bay? Or to the other local facilities that have been operating as regional cargo hubs? For now, they are struggling to fight back, to find tenants for the space and to keep their economies alive. Why have similar projects in Hanoi or Saigon failed (or not been as rapidly successful)? They can offer cheaper labor, but the total pool of raw materials and labor is still larger in China. So the Vietnamese versions strain to get sufficient traction and businesses in their aerotropolii. But the cost of developing them is already sunk.
But even the shift of FedEx into the airport is no guarantee. There are still other areas desperate for similar growth and they are somewhat ruthless in their pursuit of the business.
As the Hong Kong economist Steven Cheung once explained their attitude, ‘You want a business license? The locality will assign someone to do the walking and talking for you. Want a building permit? They will give you one with money-back guarantees. Unhappy about that dirty creek passing through the site? They may offer to build a small lake for you…. They sell their cheap electricity, sell their parks and entertainment, sell their easy transportation, sell their water supply, sell their glorious history and even sell how good looking their girls are – no exaggeration!’
There are hospitals operating in India that see themselves as the far end of a long-haul commuter healthcare road. Just like the Polish doctors who commute to England to work the weekend shift and are home Monday morning on a cheap flight, these hospitals are luring in patients from abroad with the promise of top-quality healthcare at bargain prices. Infrastructure is being built but there is no guarantee that the Ray Kinsella-styled plan will come through. What if they build it and no one comes?
The danger is that someone else will siphon [patients] away with lower costs and better connectivity in the form of nonstop flights; layovers are not an option when you’ve just come out of traction.
Indeed, Hyderabad is already trying to steal the market from Mumbai and Bangalore. The brand new airport in Hyderabad was built with an eye towards being a Healthport, among other things.
The book highlights tells several other stories, from a man-made city built literally in the middle of the ocean in Korea to the amazing fresh flowers market that is centered in Amsterdam, though showing signs of sprouting in Africa and China. And in each example precious little attention is paid to what happens to the legacy locations as the new sites go up. No book can cover everything, but at least mentioning the potential for billions of dollars of invested funds to end up with no return is a worthwhile acknowledgement to make in my book.
And that’s what ultimately has me scared. Not all of these aerotropolii will be successful. There are simply too many competing to offer the same services in concentrated regional centers. Some will almost certainly succeed and it will provide a boon to the local economy of the winners. Right up until the competitor down the road offers up cheaper, faster and better services a couple years later. Moving the factories is an expensive undertaking, with short-term effects on to the balance sheet of the company in question and with potentially devastating long-term repercussions to the aerotropolis that loses the business.
The book is an interesting read and definitely worth checking out, both from a global economics and a aerophile perspective. And I actually believe that most of the predictions of growth are likely to come true; all current evidence certainly supports them. I just fear for the fallout that comes with those developments and its impact on the global economy. For someone to win big in these efforts someone else is likely to lose badly.
And, of course, we were there for Hanukkah, so there was the lighting of the menorah that night prior to shabbat starting. Theyâre old school, with an oil-burning model that was pretty cool. And unsurprisingly, it was a bit of a pain to get lit. Still, the sound of the community singing the prayers and songs together was a very uplifting moment.
