Things in the Sky

Well, one of the biggest stories last week was United’s announcement that it is considering an order to replace widebodies and some 757s. An announcement for a potential order is always exciting, and now we get to watch Airbus and Boeing compete. I love random speculation, so here are my thoughts.

757-200

I think that Airbus might have an advantage in this category, as they’ll most likely offer the A321 here. Airbus’ main selling point will probably be that United already operates the 319 and 320, so the 321 provides some fleet commonality, and they’ll say that will translate into lower costs. Meanwhile, the best Boeing has to replace the 757-200 is the 737-900ER, though this article seems to imply that the 787-3 might be considered as well for this role as well, as “has…the range to handle transcontinental flying now done by United’s Boeing 757s.”

Speaking of narrowbody orders, what’s next for United? Seriously. They’re in the process of dumping over 90 737s. Will any mainline aircraft replace those, or is it just the job of the regional carriers to pick up the slack?

767-300

What’s interesting is that the article suggests that United is considering the 787-3, which hasn’t been too successful in terms of orders. The aircraft’s fuselage is the same length as the 787-8′s, but Boeing just has a higher seat count for the -3 because it’s using a 2-class instead of a 3-class configuration instead of the 787-3. The 787-3 also has a much shorter range than the -8, but Boeing estimates a 2,500-3,050nm range, which is fine for domestic flights. Therefore, I think that the -3 could be a decent replacement for the 767-300s in the domestic seating configuration, rather than the 757-200 as the article suggests. I don’t know for sure, but based on the number of 763s United reconfigured, there are 14 of these. Take a look at this seat map I found (source):

Now, 317 passengers is definitely bigger than the current 763 domestic configuration, but I think if  United were to aquire the 787-3 it would definitely come in with the a lower passenger count compared to this layout. For example, this layout has 24 first seats with 36 inches of pitch. Let’s say United copies the 767 configuration, which has 36 seats in first with 38 inches of pitch. In addition, United would have a few rows of  Economy Plus. I couldn’t estimate what the seat count would be, but I assume it would be closer to the 763.

But enough on the 787-3. Otherwise, I’d expect Boeing to pitch the 787, and Airbus the A350 for the 763s doing the international flying.

777-200

Yes, the Boeing 777 is sill a pretty new aircraft, but remember that United was the launch customer, so some of its birds are pretty old at this point. But, don’t be surprised is Boeing offers 777s to replace them. My theory is that Boeing will offer the 777-200LR, the range of which opens up some opportunities. I wouldn’t even rule out the 787-9, though it is a bit smaller. Depending on how long United wants to wait around, the still-rumored 787-10 could work here as well,  but there’s really not much information about when that project could get going, if it ever does. Meanwhile, I think that Airbus will offer up the A350-900 in this situation.

747-400

I think that the most likely replacements for these are the 777-300ER from Boeing, and the A350-1000 from Airbus. And while we’re talking jumbos, I think Boeing and Airbus might try to pitch their largest aircraft, the 747-8 and A380, which might work on some of the Asian routes. Boeing hasn’t had too many takers for the passenger version of the 747-8, so who knows if they’ll be willing to give United a great deal on it.

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Of course, all of this speculation is worthless if United can’t grab some attractive financing. While United might not have the best balance sheet out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing and Airbus, whose order totals haven’t been the best this year, are very willing to make some arrangements. Another thing I’m interested in seeing is if United will end up splitting the order.

I’m sure that there might be some interesting meetings going on in Paris next week.