Things in the Sky

Over the past month, I have been on the hunt for more and more data to look at, as it seems that I have been developing a somewhat unnatural obsession with Microsoft Excel. The Air Transport Association (ATA) releases the monthly yields of seven carriers and their regional affiliates, and the July numbers were just released. It looks like, just maybe, we’re starting to see a bottoming out. The year-over-year decline in passenger yield was less in July than June for Domestic, Latin, and Atlantic markets, though the decline worsened in the pacific.

There was also an improvement in some yield numbers in April, but this can probably be traced to the “Easter mismatch.” Easter was in April this year and March last year, improving April’s results but worsening March’s results.

ATA President James C. May said in a news release, however:

While the modest improvement in demand from June to July would normally be cause for cautious optimism, the fact is that the number of air travelers continues to fall despite double-digit declines in fares. Clearly, with the difficult economic environment, demand for air travel remains weak.

May makes a good point, but things are slowly looking a bit better on the traffic side. According to July 2009 traffic numbers, Alaska, Allegiant, JetBlue, and Southwest all posted gains in RPMs.

Is it safe to call a bottom here? Maybe, but I’m interested in seeing what the autumn has to bring.