Earlier this week, AirTran said it would be offering double A+ Rewards credits between Boston and Baltimore for trips booked and flown between March 15 and May 21. The airline has run a similar promotion before, but has now sweetened the pot by making those bonus credits eligible for elite status. My guess is that AirTran wants to build up some loyalty, since right now consumers only concerned about price can find a great fare Southwest, AirTran, or JetBlue.
That promotion made me want to investigate the market by looking into T100 data – and it’s very interesting to look at. Traffic has flourished with passenger counts increasing over 150% year-over-year in December (the most recent data). And control of the market has shifted a good amount. In December 2008, AirTran had over 70% of the market with some competition from Comair. In December 2009, AirTran was still the dominant carrier, but its market share had eroded to 48%.
Fares on the route decreased over 28% to $95.65 in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same period the year prior. That number, however, doesn’t paint a clear picture since Southwest entered in the middle of August and JetBlue launched in September. We’ll probably get some more clarity once the DOT’s fourth quarter data is released.
But this is a market that I’m very interested in and want to study further, especially in terms of connecting passengers. For example, how many of Southwest’s passengers are using Baltimore to get to the rest of their network? The same question can be asked for AirTran. Meanwhile, how many JetBlue passengers on the route are going to Boston to tap into their network? Hopefully my professors will be kind in the homework department in the near future so I can check things like that out. 
Another important question is the feasibility of MHT or PVD against Boston Logan itself. BWI can and has been handling its traffic decently, and of anything, could use some love from Dulles’ international side to move things “closer” to Washington DC. The thing to be avoided is stuffing more RJs into the system at DCA instead of BWI, which Comair would be happy to do, or what US Airways smartly pulled out of doing. Give the “Boston Area” tag some love – it’s a quick commute, and BWI is closer and easier to do to everything Washington-related.
- Jay
Jay, your point on PVD and MHT is well-taken. But I’d definitely disagree when it comes to being more convenient – DCA wins there by a landslide with its proximity to downtown (including its access to the Metro).
Another point, this one aimed more toward the infinite wisdom within the NE Corridor transit system, is the lack of connection between MARC and Metro service ‘down there’. SEPTA to NJ Transit works wonderfully to bypass Amtrak between Philadelphia and NYC through Trenton if PHL-LGA doesn’t work, and NY to Boston is a world of its own. But anything north of Philadelphia to the BWI area is impossible because of DART and MARC.
I’ll be curious to see if jetBlue will be the next airline in MHT (which itself now has either 4 or 5 open gates) looking for Boston-area traffic, or if we’ll see someone new come in. WN has MHT-BWI down to routine, so competition would be fierce.
Don’t mean to be critical but this is just a pet peeve of mine
In your graphs comparing market share in 2008 and 2009, it would be of help if you use the same coloring scheme in both. 
@BN – Good point. I’ll be more mindful of that next time!