Things in the Sky

My friend Courtney’s back with another guest post – this time on Mexicana:

With the soap-opera that has been Mexican aviation over the past few months, (heck, past few years) it’s time to gain some perspective on exactly what the shutdown of Mexicana means. Of course there’s still the talk of a resurrection of the airline, but I’m not holding my breath. There’s simply far too much owed to far too many people, including several of the lessors who are extremely anxious to get their airplanes back. So we’ll work on the assumption Mexicana will not be here mañana.

Up until Saturday, Mexicana was the oldest operating airline in Mexico, and fourth oldest airline in the world behind Avianca, KLM, and Qantas.To say there’s a bit of history and national pride behind the airline would be a bit of an understatement. What I want to look at is exactly what kind of world will we live in post-Mexicana. Since enough has been said, or typed, on this subject, I think I’ll let the pictures do the talking this time. Below are three analyses that struck me as showing the significance of the situation to Mexico.

One Quarter of the Capacity, Gone

Mexicana represents 26% of all seats within, into, or out of Mexico. To better illustrate the gravity of this, 26% of the US market would equate to removing Delta and Jetblue and Airtran…Let that sink in for a bit. I suppose you could say the overcapacity problem in Mexico is pretty much solved (if “solved” is even the right word).

On the fleet side, you see what the loss of the F100’s, 717’s, and 319’s does to the market. There is now quite a gap in the 70-130 seat guage, while the 150-seaters are dominated by the LCC’s Interjet, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus (pronounced ‘Air-o-booce’).

Twenty Unserved Markets

Yikes. There are some major markets on here. MEX-DEN, ORD-MTY, GDL-ACA, MEX-Canada? GDL-ACA is a major route within Mexico that will most likely be filled by the LCC’s, Interjet, Volaris, or Viva Aerobus in short order. United will have dibs on DEN-MEX, and Air Canada will be able to add Vancouver, Calgary, or Montreal at their leisure. ORD-MTY is an interesting one as American could fill it to preserve oneworld presence, but have Dallas. United could add the dot to their map, but with Continental in Houston, the ORD connection becomes a bit redundant.

All told, this is a major even in Mexican aviation. Will the airline be brought back? Who knows? I’ve seen a lot crazier things happen in Mexico.

Courtney is the co-creator of the Airplane Geeks Podcast, founder of AirlineEmpires.net, currently works for a commercial aircraft OEM, and is a self-proclaimed stud muffin. You can contact him through the Things in the Sky contact link or on Twitter @miller22.