Monthly Archive for April, 2011Page 2 of 3

Is This Why JetBlue Is Interested in Winglets?

According to Department of Transportation Statistics, 84 JetBlue flights diverted mid-flight during February. That number is not the highest in the industry – Southwest hasdthe most at 210 flights. But on a percentage basis, 0.5% of JetBlue’s flights for the month ended up diverting, by far the highest of all carriers that report their operational data to the DOT.

I decided to focus on the longest domestic flights, and filtered out those only greater than 2300 miles. In this category, 58 JetBlue flights – more than 4% of the total – ended up diverting. This result is far more than other airlines:

Further analysis indicates that 57 of the 58 diverted flights were in the Westbound direction. All of these 57 flights originated from either Boston or JFK. While DOT data doesn’t indicate the reason for diversions, I’m willing to speculate that most of them were due to fuel stops, especially based on the locations of most of the diversions (except the one in Sacramento) and the fact that they are clustered around certain days:

If we look at the next two-highest carriers shown in the earlier chart – US Airways and Continental – both also had issues on Westbound flights, but not on the same scale as JetBlue. 14 of US Airways’ 19 diversions on flights longer than 2,300 miles were from Philadelphia to California destinations(operated with A320s and A321s, mainly). Eight of Continental’s twelve diversions of this stage length were California-bound flights from Newark, primarily flown with the carrier’s 737s, mainly its 737-900ERs.

But neither of these airlines had diversions on the same scale as JetBlue. Plus, they both have other aircraft with better range capabilities in their fleet, while JetBlue does not. (On a side note, I wonder what the diversion rate would look like if JetBlue had a denser A320 configuration.)

So, some kind of fleet investment is probably needed (or significant payload restrictions) to reduce the number of diversions. JetBlue could go out and select to purchase A320s with sharklets or the A320neo, for example. The airline has also pushed for a retrofit option for existing A320s, but so far Airbus has yet to announce such an option for customers.

Delta Responds to Hawaiian’s Haneda Filing

Delta Air Lines has responded to Hawaiian Airlines’ efforts to secure back-up authority on Delta’s slots at Tokyo-Haneda’s airport, saying the application “is without merit.”

Hawaiian said last week that it would add a second daily flight from Honolulu to Haneda if it were to secure an additional slot. Delta suspended service to Haneda from Detroit and Los Angeles last month in the wake of the earthquake and Tsunami that devastated Japan.

The DOT awarded Haneda slots last year to American, Delta, and Hawaiian with 90-day dormancy conditions. Delta currently plans to resume service to Haneda from Los Angeles and Detroit on June 2 and June 16, respectively. Delta notes in its response that both dates are in compliance with the dormancy conditions.

“Hawaiian admits that its loads on the Tokyo-Honolulu route have declined since the disaster, and every U.S. carrier serving Tokyo from the U.S. mainland has dramatically reduced capacity,” says Delta.

I found that sentence from Delta to be very interesting. The first part  mentions Hawaiian specifically, but the second part excludes Hawaiian by only focusing on carriers operating to Haneda from the mainland. It’s worth noting that Hawaiian has retained daily service to Haneda.

Anyway…it’s always fun to watch airlines debate in the DOT docket. It will be interesting to see if the DOT ends up awarding back-up authority, but all of this is moot if Delta resumes service within the 90-day window.

A Quick Look at Some On-Time Statistics

Last week, the Department of Transportation released its monthly Air Travel  Consumer Report (always a good read), which includes on-time performance for February. I found a few things interesting.

First, let’s talk about Southwest. The airline came in 10th place for the month, with 74.3% of its flights arriving on time. This result compares to the national average of 74.5%. While this performance isn’t exactly stellar – especially from a carrier that has historically done well in this area – it is certainly an improvement from the worse rankings (17th in October) found earlier this year.

Next up is JetBlue. Other writers such as Brett Snyder have pointed out the carrier’s performance in the past, and it wasn’t great in February either, with only 65.5% of flights arriving on time. I need to spend some more time communing with the on-time data before I write more.

Finally – I know I’ve said this before, but I think more airlines need to report their results, especially regional carriers. For example, there are more US Airways Express departures at Charlotte, Philadelphia and Washington-National, but none of the regional carriers are required to report results because they do not generate enough revenue. (Airlines that make over 1% of total domestic scheduled revenue must report.)

Another example is United, which has been touting its on-time performance over the past few months. Believe me, United has made great progress and they certainly deserve credit for running a good operation. But look at O’Hare – in February, 75.7% of United flights were on time, but the on-time numbers for SkyWest and ExpressJet – 61.5% and 54.1% – aren’t exactly fantastic (some of those flights were probably for other airlines – Delta and Continental, respectively – but I’ll assume the vast majority were for United). With the rise of regional carriers, it just seems fair to paint a clearer picture for consumers.

Personally, I would love to see a mainline carrier voluntarily report to the public what it’s on-time performance for its entire network – including regional carriers. Yes, regionals are different airlines, but the mainline carrier selects the regional and slaps its logo on the fuselage. As such, it should take responsibility for keeping tabs on the quality of service the regional provides.

Now Hawaiian Wants Haneda Back-Up Authority

After United/Continental applied for back-up authority for Haneda service, Hawaiian is giving it a shot, writing to the DOT that “at a minimum, backup authority for the Haneda service current held by Delta and American should be awa¡ded to Hawaiian. If Delta or American do not restart service to Haneda within 90 days as required by the Order, the Department should reallocate at least one of those Haneda slots to Hawaiian.”

If it were to receive the second slot, Hawaiian will use it for a second flight to Honolulu – something for which the carrier has been asking for over a year.

Anyway – Hawaiian packed some very interesting stuff into its filing. Not surprisingly, the carrier reminds the DOT that it was the first airline to launch service to Haneda. But it also notes that load factors have been “averaging over 80 percent” and despite the negative affects of the natural disaster in Japan “the market remains strong.”

Meanwhile, Hawaiian provides an analysis of Delta’s performance at Haneda, especially from Detroit. “Based on the information Hawaiian has received, Delta’s load factor on its flights to Haneda before those events [the earthquake and tsunami] in Japan was quite low,” it says.

Hawaiian also uses MIDT data from February 28 to support its claims, noting these results:

Although Delta was offering service with the same aircraft capacity on both routes, its bookings to Haneda from Detroit were only 41.8% of its bookings to Narita from that same U.S. gateway. Moreover, given Delta’s load factors on its Detroit-Narita route in Ma¡ch 2010, and assuming the same ratio of Haneda to Narita bookings for its flights from Detroit, Delta was facing the prospect of a dìsastrous 38% load factor for its Detroit – Haneda flights in March 2011. The outlook for those flights beyond March was similarly grim..

Hawaiian also claims that “Delta’s advance bookings for its Los Angeles-Narita and Los Angeles-Haneda flights paints a similarly grim picture of the lack of demand and unsustainability of Delta’s LosAngeles-Haneda service.”

So, what does Hawaiian conclude? Take a look (emphasis mine):

This information, taken together with Delta’s commitment to its large hub at Tokyo’s Narita Airport, suggests that Delta may be using the terrible events in Japan as a convenient excuse to suspend its service to Haneda and funnel as much traffic through Narita as possible, thereby reducing its cost per passenger at Narita and also reducing its costs by eliminating, even for  a short  period, its costs of providing service that competes directly with its Narita service.

Before closing, Hawaiian responds to United/Continental’s request for back-up authority, writing that “If Delta can’t fill the seats on its flights to Haneda from Los Angeles, a large U.S. market, it strains credulity to believe that United could fill the seats on daily flights to Haneda from San Francisco, a much smaller market.” I’d imagine United’s response there (at least in the SFO example) its hub at San Francisco is stronger than Delta’s at Los Angeles.

Allegiant Cuts Second Quarter Schedule Again

Last month I wrote about how Allegiant had trimmed growth plans for the second quarter – the Las Vegas-based carrier was originally planning on a 6-9% ASM increase for scheduled service, but a guidance released in March said change in scheduled capacity would be anywhere from down 4% to flat year-over-year.

Yesterday Allegiant released its March traffic results, which includes an updated capacity forecast, and the carrier’s second quarter schedule has been cut once again. Allegiant now expects scheduled ASMs to decrease 2-6% compared to the second quarter of 2010.

Allegiant’s news release also includes a forecast for the third quarter (the first I’ve seen) – the airline is also expecting a 2-6% decrease for that time period.

US Airways Invests in Its Onboard Product

I’ll be honest – I’ve always had a soft spot for US Airways. Many of my early childhood trips (like my first experience in first class) were on the airline, so I have lots of fond memories. And it’s been great to watch the airline make incredible strides in areas like on-time performance and baggage handling. But the airline’s hard product leaves a bit to be desired.

Don’t get me wrong – US Airways has made great strides. But so has United when it comes to on-time performance. And plus United has a stronger network, and other compelling features like Economy Plus.

So it was great to see US Airways announce new investments into its onboard experience yesterday.  For one, the carrier will be upgrading its onboard food options across its network, but the biggest announcement was that first class will be coming to larger regional jets.

To be honest, this move is more catching up than anything – US Airways is the lone major network carrier to not have this feature. But it’s certainly a nice move, nonetheless, that could lead to increased loyalty or more revenue from first class tickets and upgrade fees. (Hopefully the offering will deliver in this area, considering that the total number of seats is coming down.)

Overall, I’m glad to see US Airways make this move. It certainly improves the carrier’s competitive position, and I think this could be a moneymaker in some areas. The market that immediately comes to mind for me is Washington-National – a strong (slot-controlled!) US Airways market with plenty of E-Jet Service.

US Airways says that it “anticipates that the addition of First Class to US Airways Express will be revenue positive in the first year due to the additional revenue from First Class sales and the sale of upgrades.”

Upgrades will begin with the E-175 fleet this October, and all larger regional jets will be finished in January when the CRJ-700 fleet is completed. (Note: the news release says upgrades start in October but the status page says they start in September.)

Anyway, here’s a breakdown of the changes:

I found it interesting that the E-175 will actually have one less premium seat than the 170. Maybe it’s for the same reason that the in the current configuration E-175 only has seats in the first row on the right side of the aircraft. The E-170, for comparison’s sake, has a full first row of seats. (Based on some browsing around on SeatGuru, it appears that the E175 first cabin will look like the E190 with one last full row.)

SFO’s T2

While it will not be welcoming passengers until Thursday next week, San Francisco’s newly-renovated Terminal 2 is being shown off to members of the media today. Virgin America, the terminal’s anchor tenant, is pulling out all of the stops to show off its swanky new home to the world.

For example – the carrier is operating a “test flight” with one of its A320s with special guests onboard as a dry run for the new terminal. That’s pretty cool to start, but get this – the aircraft will be flying and approaching SFO alongside Virgin Galactic’s WihiteKnightTwo! In addition, Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTWo will also be making an appearance – awesome! (Hopefully one day Virgin’s Elevate points can be used for spaceflight…)

As awesome as that sounds, sadly I’m stuck here on the other side of the country due to school commitments. But I might as well share some of the awesome features of the new terminal, which has fourteen gates. Virgin America will take seven of these – with six other gates for American and another one for common use.

Virgin America has made a push to be as “green” an airline as possible (having very new A320-family aircraft helps), and its new home fits very well with that goal, as Terminal 2 is hoped to become the first LEED® Gold-certified terminal in the country. T2 has many green features – including more energy-efficient ventilation systems and a design to optimize the use of natural light. The terminal also has hydration stations to refill water bottles, hopefully reducing waste.

Virign has also planned for the airport experience to match what its passengers will find onboard, noting that T2’s “ticket counters and gates offer distinctive lighting similar to its cabin moodlighting.”

In addition to a fancy eco-friendly design, T2 passengers will find plenty of creature comforts, such as free Wi-Fi, ample laptop power, and tables that make getting work done easy. T2 also features a “recompose” area post-security to make the post-screening experience easier. (That’s significant because most airport terminals these days were still designed for a pre-9/11 security environment.)

Anyway, I’m quite jealous of everyone who’s exploring T2 today. Here’s hoping I find an excuse to travel to San Francisco soon! Check out the photos below:

Virgin America’s ticket counter. Credit: Bruce Damonte Photography

One of Virgin America’s gates – note the work tables with power and space for laptops. Credit: Bruce Damonte Photography

T2 features stations where passengers (and crew) can re-fill water bottles, which will hopefully reduce waste. Credit: Bruce Damonte Photography

Looking at Fuel Prices

US Airways released an investor update yesterday, and as usual its foretasted fuel prices for the year were included. I decided to compare this to January’s investor update, and the increases are very interesting. In both guidances the airline gave five-cent intervals for price per gallon, so I just averaged the upper and lower bounds of each guidance and then graphed them. The increases are over 15% for the next three quarters:

According it its January 26 guidance, US Airways expected its mainline fuel expense to be $2.996 – $3.051 billion for the year. That’s now been upped to $3.432 – $3.486 billion.

Other airlines are probably seeing similar gains. Which then leads to the question –  how much further flexibility to airlines have with pricing to adjust to any further possible increases in fuel prices.

United Seeks Haneda Back-Up Authority

United and merger partner Continental are seeking back-up authority for slots at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, according to filings with the Department of Transportation. If given such authority, the two airlines would be able to launch service if another carrier ends Haneda services and loses its slot, avoiding another slot proceeding process. The two carriers say they can provide service to the cities that were in their original applications last year – Guam, Newark, and San Francisco.

The Haneda slots were awarded to carriers with dormancy conditions – meaning the slots would be lost if they were not used for 90 days.

The application for back-up authority is not exactly new – at least for Continental. The airline asked last year for back-up authority to fly Guam-Haneda (service would be operated by Continental Micronesia) as well as authority to fly from Newark to Haneda. In its final order, the DOT did not award this authority.

“To avoid any risk to Haneda the Department should act immediately to name Continental and United as back-up carrier in the event that Delta (or any other Haneda-authorized U.S. carrier) decides to abandon service at Haneda,” the carriers say. They also say that if a carrier were to stop serving Haneda, the process to re-allocate the slots would  ”loss of much needed Haneda service…that will be particularly harmful to the competitive position of the U.S. carrier industry if reciprocal services by Japanese carriers continue.”

As part of its application, United and Continental note that both American and Delta requested (and received) permission to delay the launch of of Haneda services, and that Delta was suspending service to Haneda. (While not noted by United, American is also suspending Haneda service, but for a shorter time than Delta.)

Delta responded to United and Continental in a DOT filing, saying that it is not “abandoning Haneda service. Delta’s Los Angeles-Haneda flight resumes on June 2, and Delta’s Detroit-  Haneda flight resumes on June 16 — both in full compliance with the Department’s 90 day dormancy condition.” The Atlanta-based carrier also points out that “United does not mention the Japanese tsunami or its impact on U.S.-Tokyo air service. Delta’s response of temporarily suspending Haneda service until the immediate effects of the disaster have abated.”

There’s been no word from the DOT yet, but it will be interesting to see what is said. As Delta mentioned, the service is scheduled to resume within 90 days, meaning they are in compliance with the DOT’s ruling. Even if Delta’s service suspension was to last longer, I have to think that an unpredictable and incredibly harsh natural disaster is a pretty good reason to halt service temporarily.

But, with all that in mind…I do think that United and Continental have a very interesting point here that they didn’t bring up (though it wouldn’t affect the dormancy rules). In early March – before the earthquake and tsunami – Delta updated its schedule to reflect a capacity reduction at Haneda, replacing 747s with 777s this summer. As the always-useful Airline Route blog points out, the use of the 747 was a selling point for Delta’s service to Los Angeles and Detroit.

In its tentative order awarding the slots to Delta, the DOT said that Delta’s “significant capacity advantage is particularly compelling at Los Angeles,” and said in its final order that using the 747 on the LAX-HND route would “inject significant capacity into the U.S.-Tokyo market by Delta’s use of B747 aircraft.”

The DOT also said in its tentative order that Delta’s “proposed use of B747 aircraft for its Detroit service would also maximize use of its hub gateway in serving Haneda.” Delta said in its application that it “is proposing its largest aircraft – the Boeing 747-400 for Detroit. The 403 seat capacity of the 747 will help to maximize the value of the scarce Haneda slots that are available to U.S. carriers.”

Why do I bring this up? When objecting to the awards to Delta, both United and Continental (separate at the time) expressed doubts about Delta’s plan to utilize the 747.

“The likelihood that Delta would continue offering two daily B-747 flights between Detroit and Tokyo, one serving Haneda and the other serving Narita, is questionable,” said Continental. “If Delta operates its Haneda flights with smaller aircraft or terminates them altogether the Department’s premise for awarding Delta Haneda authority would evaporate,” the carrier added.

United warned that “the purported capacity advantages of Delta’s proposed Los Angeles and Detroit service may be largely illusory,” noting that Delta “already operates daily non-stop service to NRT from Detroit and Los Angeles using B747 aircraft. It may have considerable difficulty selling twice as many daily seats at Detroit, where the local market is far too small to support a doubling of capacity, and at Los Angeles, where extensive Tokyo service already exists and where Delta’s prospects of generating any significant volume of connecting traffic for its HND service are slim.”

In the case of Newark-Haneda and San Francisco-Haneda, Continental and United would’ve operated the 777-200, obviously much closer in size to what Delta has currently scheduled than the 747-400 service originally proposed.

Interesting stuff.

Southwest Expects Normal Operations Tomorrow

Southwest has just issued an update on the status of inspections on its fleet of 737-300 in the aftermath of the decompression event on flight 812 last Friday. The airline says that it “expects to complete the inspections and be able to launch a full operation on Tuesday.”

Earlier this weekend, the carrier announced it was grounding 79 of its 737-300s in order to inspect them for fuselage cracks. Southwest says it has inspected 67 aircraft so far, and 64 of these have returned to service. Three aircraft “did have findings of subsurface cracks and will be out of service until Boeing recommends an appropriate repair,” Southwest says.

The airline also commented on the upcoming FAA emergency directive slated for release tomorrow. The directive will require inspections for fatigue damage on “certain Boeing 737 aircraft in the -300, -400 and -500 series that have accumulated more than 30,000 flight cycles,” according to the FAA.

“We believe the 79 aircraft already identified for inspection will accomplish this directive for Southwest Airlines. The reference in the FAA’s statement to the 737-500 focuses on a particular set of airplanes that does not include Southwest aircraft,” says the airline.

Southwest said yesterday that the 79 737-300s grounded “were designed differently in the manufacturing process,” but has yet to offer any additional details. Southwest operated a total of 171 737-300s at the end of last year.