Archive for the 'Airbus' Category

Idle A321 Observations

Published
by
Dan Webb
on May 17, 2011
in Airbus
. 1 Comment

A couple of quick thoughts/observations on the A321/A321neo, courtesy of leasing giant International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC).

In March, ILFC and Airbus announced they had signed a memorandum of understanding for 100 A320neo-family aircraft, comprised of 75 A320neos and 25 A321neos. The MOU made ILFC the first customer for the A321neo. A few weeks later, the MOU was firmed up, though the breakdown of the order was not discussed in the press release. It did mention, however, that the  ”agreement between Airbus and ILFC provides for model flexibility which initially includes both A320neo and A321neo types.”

ILFC’s 10-Q from last week, however, had some more details:

On April 22, 2011, we signed a purchase agreement to acquire 80 A320neos and 20 A321neos from Airbus. The first aircraft is scheduled to deliver in 2015. We had entered into a memorandum of understanding with Airbus to acquire such aircraft during the first quarter of 2011.

I find it interesting that the orders for the A320neo have increased by five and the A321neo orders have decreased by the same number. Maybe I’m reading too much into it at this early stage, but I’m just wondering what’s driving the change.

And while we’re on the topic of the A321, ILFC’s annual 10-K filing from earlier this year and some interesting thoughts on some of its A321 fleet. It should be noted, however, is that the company only commented on its oldest, less-capable A321-100s and not the newer A320-200s:

As of December 31, 2010, ILFC had 13 passenger configured 747-400’s and 11 A321-100’s in its fleet. Management’s estimate of the future lease rates for these aircraft types declined significantly in the third quarter of 2010….The decline in A321-100 lease rates is primarily due to continued and accelerated decrease in demand for this aircraft type, which is attributable to its age and limited mission application.

I found the reference to the A321′s “limited mission application” very interesting. It makes me wonder if the improved performance of the A321neo due to improved engines and sharkelts is enough to make the aircraft more attractive to lessors and ultimately airlines.

Thinking About Sharklets

Published
by
Dan Webb
on June 11, 2010
in Airbus
. 2 Comments

Yesterday, Finnair became the second customer (that we know of) for Airbus’ A320 family aircraft equipped with sharklets. Its also the first airline to order the A321 equipped with the wingtip devices. The A321s will be used to replace the carrier’s 757s that are used on leisure routes.

I’m starting to wonder about potential orders from US carriers. Winglets from Aviation Partners Boeing have been very popular with Boeing operators using 737, 757, and 767 aircraft. If you look at the major US carriers, nearly every 737NG either has or will receive blended winglet installations. And Continental and Southwest has used them to improve the fuel performance of their 737 Classic fleets. Winglets have also helped the 757-200 find new life as a transatlantic airliner.

Right now Airbus operators (Delta, JetBlue, Spirit, United, US Airways) haven’t been able to join the party, and I’m guessing they’d sure like to considering it reduced fuel burn by a few percentage points. That decreases cost on existing routes but also makes longer stage lengths feasible. For example, reducing fuel burn can increase reliability on routes that now could sometimes require a technical stop to refuel.

So airlines that are currently expanding their fleets in the near-tearm – like JetBlue, Spirit, and US Airways, are all possible customers here.

But there are a couple of issues. First of all, there’s still no retrofit option. These are only available for new aircraft. There has been work done in this area but there is still yet to be any official offering from Airbus. Second, I think there’s some understandable hesitation among carriers right now in the narrowbody department. I’m guessing some airlines would like to see Airbus (and Boeing) make some kind of final decision on re-engining current models and/or a clean sheet design, and when it would be available.

So, just some of my random thoughts. Winglets on the A320-family are way awesome, but I feel a retrofit option is necessary for some success here.

So, What’s United Going to Buy?

Published
by
Dan Webb
on June 8, 2009
in Airbus, Boeing and United
. 2 Comments

Well, one of the biggest stories last week was United’s announcement that it is considering an order to replace widebodies and some 757s. An announcement for a potential order is always exciting, and now we get to watch Airbus and Boeing compete. I love random speculation, so here are my thoughts.

757-200

I think that Airbus might have an advantage in this category, as they’ll most likely offer the A321 here. Airbus’ main selling point will probably be that United already operates the 319 and 320, so the 321 provides some fleet commonality, and they’ll say that will translate into lower costs. Meanwhile, the best Boeing has to replace the 757-200 is the 737-900ER, though this article seems to imply that the 787-3 might be considered as well for this role as well, as “has…the range to handle transcontinental flying now done by United’s Boeing 757s.”

Speaking of narrowbody orders, what’s next for United? Seriously. They’re in the process of dumping over 90 737s. Will any mainline aircraft replace those, or is it just the job of the regional carriers to pick up the slack?

767-300

What’s interesting is that the article suggests that United is considering the 787-3, which hasn’t been too successful in terms of orders. The aircraft’s fuselage is the same length as the 787-8′s, but Boeing just has a higher seat count for the -3 because it’s using a 2-class instead of a 3-class configuration instead of the 787-3. The 787-3 also has a much shorter range than the -8, but Boeing estimates a 2,500-3,050nm range, which is fine for domestic flights. Therefore, I think that the -3 could be a decent replacement for the 767-300s in the domestic seating configuration, rather than the 757-200 as the article suggests. I don’t know for sure, but based on the number of 763s United reconfigured, there are 14 of these. Take a look at this seat map I found (source):

jun81

Now, 317 passengers is definitely bigger than the current 763 domestic configuration, but I think if  United were to aquire the 787-3 it would definitely come in with the a lower passenger count compared to this layout. For example, this layout has 24 first seats with 36 inches of pitch. Let’s say United copies the 767 configuration, which has 36 seats in first with 38 inches of pitch. In addition, United would have a few rows of  Economy Plus. I couldn’t estimate what the seat count would be, but I assume it would be closer to the 763.

But enough on the 787-3. Otherwise, I’d expect Boeing to pitch the 787, and Airbus the A350 for the 763s doing the international flying.

777-200

Yes, the Boeing 777 is sill a pretty new aircraft, but remember that United was the launch customer, so some of its birds are pretty old at this point. But, don’t be surprised is Boeing offers 777s to replace them. My theory is that Boeing will offer the 777-200LR, the range of which opens up some opportunities. I wouldn’t even rule out the 787-9, though it is a bit smaller. Depending on how long United wants to wait around, the still-rumored 787-10 could work here as well,  but there’s really not much information about when that project could get going, if it ever does. Meanwhile, I think that Airbus will offer up the A350-900 in this situation.

747-400

I think that the most likely replacements for these are the 777-300ER from Boeing, and the A350-1000 from Airbus. And while we’re talking jumbos, I think Boeing and Airbus might try to pitch their largest aircraft, the 747-8 and A380, which might work on some of the Asian routes. Boeing hasn’t had too many takers for the passenger version of the 747-8, so who knows if they’ll be willing to give United a great deal on it.

–

Of course, all of this speculation is worthless if United can’t grab some attractive financing. While United might not have the best balance sheet out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing and Airbus, whose order totals haven’t been the best this year, are very willing to make some arrangements. Another thing I’m interested in seeing is if United will end up splitting the order.

I’m sure that there might be some interesting meetings going on in Paris next week. :D

Winglets for the A320…and a Saint?

Published
by
Dan Webb
on September 18, 2008
in Airbus and Random
. 2 Comments

It seems that all I’ve been talking about this week is oil and winglets. :D

A few days ago Flight Global reported that Airbus is planning to test winglets for the A320 again. For those that don’t remember, Airbus attempted two winglet designs a couple of years ago, but they never went past the testing stage. The interesting part is this time around a design by Aviation Partners, the same company that makes winglets for Boeing aircraft, will be tested. If the design is successful, I think the possibility of creating winglets for this aircraft type is a huge oppurtuninty for them. We’ll just have to see how it goes.

And also – a random fact for my fellow Catholics out there. Today is the feast day of St. Joseph Cupertino, patron saint of air travelers and flight crew.

Farnborough News; Egyptair Joins Star Alliance

Published
by
Dan Webb
on July 15, 2008
in Airbus, Boeing, EgyptAir, Farnborough and Star Alliance
. 0 Comments

This week will certainly be busy in terms of posts. First, the Farnborough International Airshow is going this week. The manufacturers could be making big announcements, and the airlines might be making some big orders. In addition, earnings season is in full swing and the airlines will be starting tomororw as both American and Delta will be releasing their results and having their quarterly conference calls.

But on to the news… Continue reading ‘Farnborough News; Egyptair Joins Star Alliance’

Is the A350 Fat?

Published
by
Dan Webb
on June 9, 2008
in A350 and Airbus
. 0 Comments

Just like its competitor the 787, the A350 needs to go on a diet. Airbus informed customters that right now the plane is two tons heavier than originally thought. The German media, however, is saying the weight issue is greater, even as much as eight tons.

In an environment like today’s, this is not good news at all. More weight equals more fuel, and right now airlines are doing whatever they can to cut back. The Farnborough Air Show is in a few weeks. It will be interesting to see if this announcement/hype/concern will have any effect on potential A350 customers.