Click here to view the embedded video.

Tip of the hat to my friend Mark.

757-200

I think that Airbus might have an advantage in this category, as they’ll most likely offer the A321 here. Airbus’ main selling point will probably be that United already operates the 319 and 320, so the 321 provides some fleet commonality, and they’ll say that will translate into lower costs. Meanwhile, the best Boeing has to replace the 757-200 is the 737-900ER, though this article seems to imply that the 787-3 might be considered as well for this role as well, as “has…the range to handle transcontinental flying now done by United’s Boeing 757s.”

Speaking of narrowbody orders, what’s next for United? Seriously. They’re in the process of dumping over 90 737s. Will any mainline aircraft replace those, or is it just the job of the regional carriers to pick up the slack?

767-300

What’s interesting is that the article suggests that United is considering the 787-3, which hasn’t been too successful in terms of orders. The aircraft’s fuselage is the same length as the 787-8′s, but Boeing just has a higher seat count for the -3 because it’s using a 2-class instead of a 3-class configuration instead of the 787-3. The 787-3 also has a much shorter range than the -8, but Boeing estimates a 2,500-3,050nm range, which is fine for domestic flights. Therefore, I think that the -3 could be a decent replacement for the 767-300s in the domestic seating configuration, rather than the 757-200 as the article suggests. I don’t know for sure, but based on the number of 763s United reconfigured, there are 14 of these. Take a look at this seat map I found (source):

Now, 317 passengers is definitely bigger than the current 763 domestic configuration, but I think if  United were to aquire the 787-3 it would definitely come in with the a lower passenger count compared to this layout. For example, this layout has 24 first seats with 36 inches of pitch. Let’s say United copies the 767 configuration, which has 36 seats in first with 38 inches of pitch. In addition, United would have a few rows of  Economy Plus. I couldn’t estimate what the seat count would be, but I assume it would be closer to the 763.

But enough on the 787-3. Otherwise, I’d expect Boeing to pitch the 787, and Airbus the A350 for the 763s doing the international flying.

777-200

Yes, the Boeing 777 is sill a pretty new aircraft, but remember that United was the launch customer, so some of its birds are pretty old at this point. But, don’t be surprised is Boeing offers 777s to replace them. My theory is that Boeing will offer the 777-200LR, the range of which opens up some opportunities. I wouldn’t even rule out the 787-9, though it is a bit smaller. Depending on how long United wants to wait around, the still-rumored 787-10 could work here as well,  but there’s really not much information about when that project could get going, if it ever does. Meanwhile, I think that Airbus will offer up the A350-900 in this situation.

747-400

I think that the most likely replacements for these are the 777-300ER from Boeing, and the A350-1000 from Airbus. And while we’re talking jumbos, I think Boeing and Airbus might try to pitch their largest aircraft, the 747-8 and A380, which might work on some of the Asian routes. Boeing hasn’t had too many takers for the passenger version of the 747-8, so who knows if they’ll be willing to give United a great deal on it.

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Of course, all of this speculation is worthless if United can’t grab some attractive financing. While United might not have the best balance sheet out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing and Airbus, whose order totals haven’t been the best this year, are very willing to make some arrangements. Another thing I’m interested in seeing is if United will end up splitting the order.

I’m sure that there might be some interesting meetings going on in Paris next week.

Good stuff. Take a look here.

But on to the news…first we’ll dive into Farnborough. ATW has had good coverage of the show so far. Click here for Monday’s coverage and here for today’s.

As expected, the Gulf carriers have made a lot of orders so far, especially Ethiad. That airline bought 10 A380s, 20 A320s,  25 A350XWBs, 35 787s, and last but not least, 10 777s. Saudi Arabian Airlines ordered 8 A330-300s. FlyDubai, a new low cost carrier in the region that is supposedly starting operations next year, will be leasing 4 and purchasing 50 737-800s. (By the way, while the aritlce I linked to hints Emirates will run that airline as a subsidiary, the two will supposedly be separate.)

We’re in for a fun week. It will be interesting to compare the Boeing and Airbus order books when all is said and done.

In slightly older news, EgyptAir is now an official a Star Alliance member as of Friday. This development is good for Star as it now has two African carriers as members (the other is South African Airways), while Skyteam and Oneworld don’t have any. Star will gain a further advantage when Continental and its partners join the Star Alliance, for reasons I discussed earlier.

This soap opera just won’t end! The Air Force is reconsidering its tanker bid, even though it had previously awarded the contract to Northrop Grumman’s plan based on the A330. Basically, the Government Accountability Office says the decision was not made by the correct standards. Now maybe it really didn’t follow its own standards and this is legitimate. I may just like conspiracy theories, but let me speculate for a bit. Take a look at some of the comments from members of the House and Senate on this issue:

I am sure that many of my colleagues here believe that there is absolutely no other choice then for the Air Force to re-bid this contract. So we are going to play a larger oversight role to make sure the Air Force actually does their job.

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Washington)

“What we have been saying for a number of weeks now that this competition has brought forth a wrong decision, has been validated by the GAO in a very, very strong way and that is good news for American workers it’s good news for our national security and it’s good news for our economy. And we feel very good about this decision.”

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Washington)

“Thanks be to God and the GAO on this one. This is a huge victory for us.”

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas)

“If the Air Force doesn’t get it right, I am going to reserve all my options as a member of the Appropriations Committee to offer amendments and do anything I can to stop this thing from going forward.”

Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Washington)

(Quotes from the previously linked to CNN article and this news story).

Quotes like these make me feel like this move is simply a way to help Boeing. Heck, Norm Dick’s comment makes it seem like the only proper choice is Boeing. And they seem to forget the amount of jobs that will be created in Alabama due to the current Northrop bid.

Apparently these legislators have never gotten the memo about globalization: it works both ways. Boeing cannot provide military aircraft for other countries and then whine and moan when a competitor does the same to them.

To put it bluntly, the government is simply continuing its protectionist policies in the name of protecting established American jobs, even if new ones are created. In my opinion, policies like these encourage a sense of entitlement, as it makes American companies feel that no matter what kind of product they produce, even if it inferior to a foreign competitor, it will be purchased by the government.

Annoying.

Today in the Sky reported yesterday that Hawaiian will be adding four more Boeing 717s (leased from Boeing Capital) to their fleet for inter-island flights by the end of this year, bringing the total 717 fleet to fifteen aircraft. While four aircraft may not seem like a lot, it is a good number of seats for the inter-island market and it is also somewhat refreshing to read an announcement about fleet growth after the the press releases about capacity cuts from American, United, and Continental.

Obviously Aloha’s withdrawal from passenger service increases load factors for Hawaiian as the two carriers had similar routes from the West Coast and within the islands themselves. ATA’s closure also helps Hawaiian, though to a lesser extent (no inter-island flights, for example).

So who’s left in the inter-island market? Well there’s Mesa’s go!, Mokulele Airlines (which operates some flights for Mesa under the name go!express), Island Air, and Pacific Wings. Hawaiian has a big advantage over these carriers because they have long haul flights feeding into their inter-island flights. The only advantages these smaller carriers have is that they fly to some of the smaller airports Hawaiian doesn’t touch. It will be interesting to see what happens with go!, as it’s parent company, Mesa, is having major issues right now. In fact, Planebuzz reports today that the company’s CFO has left quickly and mysteriously.

Today in the Sky also states that Hawaiian is actually hiring people, which is fantastic news considering the current condition of the industry. Also, many of the new employees are former workers for Aloha, so it’s nice to hear that those people have jobs again.