Archive for the 'Data' Category

An Update on Oil

Published
by
Dan Webb
on November 14, 2008
in Data
. 0 Comments

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted graphs with the spot prices of oil and jet fuel, so let’s take a look:

Basically, all of the gains since the beginning of 2006 have been erased. That’s fairly incredible. I saw gas around $2.15 yesterday, and it will probably be going down a bit more.

Nevertheless, I am shocked to say the least. I remember back in the spring in May that predicted that oil would be back in the $60 range, and I didn’t believe it. But now, look where we are - oil is below $60/barrel.

I think the important question is if oil will stay in this range - and I think it will for the short term. I am fairly confident that an increase in the price of oil will be an indicator that the slowdown is over. Obviously right now this is good for the industry right now when the airlines are paying spot prices (I think the topic of hedging has been beaten to death at this point). Will this change the strategy of some airlines? I think it is possible. For example, some airlines probably aren’t feeling as pressured to trim schedules and shift their fleets.

The Latest Air Travel Consumer Report

Published
by
Dan Webb
on November 13, 2008
in Data
. 0 Comments

The latest edition of the Air Travel Consumer Report has been out for awhile, and I’m finally getting the chance to look at it.

This report contained the ontime performance of airlines for September, and it increased a few points compared to the same month last year (81.7% of flights ontime compared to 84.9%). Now, could this be due to the capacity cuts? Page 21 of the report talks about cancellations, but also lists the total number of flight operations. September 2007 saw 600,817 operations, and September 2008 had 540,908 - a 9.9% decrease. So, I think one could say it is certainly possible.

Mishandled bag reports were also down 5.36 per 1,000 passengers last year versus 3.86 per 1,000 passengers this year. As I discussed back in October, there is a good chance this decrease is due to the increase in baggage fees accross the industry.

Complaints were also down for the inudstry - down to 0.99 complaints per 100,000 passengers from 1.17 in September 2007.

Another Thing On Mishandled Luggage…

Published
by
Dan Webb
on October 7, 2008
in Data
. 1 Comment

Grant’s comment on my post yesterday made me think of something…he mentioned if there is less luggage going through the system, then you probbaly will have less mishandled bag reports.

In August 2007, there were 57,499,972 enplanements, and there were 53,979,160 - a 6.1% decrease.

In August 2007, there were 435,766 mishandled baggage reports, and only 268,590 in August 2008 - a 38.4% decrease.

I don’t know if/where the reports on the total number of pieces of luggage are handled are published, but I am willing to guess that there is less baggage going through the system, especially due to many airlines introducing baggage fees.

This is an effect that I believe was predicted during Continental’s conference call with analysts during the summer, and it seems to be coming true.

Delays, Bags, and Complaints, Oh My!

Published
by
Dan Webb
on October 6, 2008
in Data
. 4 Comments

First, many apologies for posting so late today!

The ltaest issue of the Air Travel Consumer Report was released a few days ago, and I always think it is worthwhile to take a look.

In terms of delays, there was a decent improvement in August 2008 compared to August 2007. The perecentage of on time operations for all reportable airports went up 6.7 points to 78.4%, up from 71.7%. The top five in this area were Hawaiian, Pinnacle, Skywest, Northwest, and Southwest. JetBlue was the worst with only a 64.7% ontime rating.

The number of mishandled bags decreased as well. In August 2007 there were 7.58 reports of mishandled bags per 1,000 passengers, but only 4.98 in August 2008. The top five in this category were Hawaiian, Northwest, AirTran, Frontier, and US Airways. Southwest was very close behind US Airways in this category.

Finally, my favorite - consumer complaints! Complaints went down slightly compared to August 2007 - 1.84 complaints per 100,000 enplanements to 1.22. Southwest was number one in this category with 0.22. The remaining airlines in the top five were Alaska, ExpressJet, Skywest, and Pinnacle. US Airways was the worst with 2.45 thought that is still a major improvement compared to its August 2007 number of 4.42.

The one airline that surprised me in terms of complaints was JetBlue. Last month its complaints were 0.59 per 100,000 enplanements but they were up to 2.19. I wonder what has caused such a jump.

Anyway, I’m more looking forward to next month’s report as we will see what the capacity cuts do to ontime percentage and these other statistics.