Archive for the 'Frontier' Category

AirTran/Southwest Applies for More Mexican Routes

Southwest is continuing its push to add more Mexcian flying to its route network as its AirTran subsidiary has applied to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) for the authority to to Cancun from Austin and Denver using AirTran 737-700 aircraft. The filing comes after Southwest last year announced plans to launch service from San Antonio to Cancun and Mexico City, and from Orange County to Cabo and Mexico City. The carrier is also competing with Frontier Airlines for the authority to fly between Chicago and Cancun.

The airline said in its application that its frequency of service in the Austin- Cancun market will vary from four times per week to daily with a proposed start date of May 25. The proposed Denver-Cancun service would be slated to launch around April 16, with daily service during the December-to-June high season, and would fly “several times a week during the off- peak period.” The company noted for both markets, however, that the exact schedule depends on “demand and market conditions.”

The bilateral agreement between the US and Mexico limits the number of carriers that can operate on Mexican routes (in many cases the number of US carriers is capped at three), but the airline notes in its filing that designations are available. One designation is available for Denver-Cancun service, as only United and Frontier currently have the authority to fly between the two cities.

Sun Country and Continental have the authority to fly between Austin and Cancun. Delta has flown on the route in the past, but notified the DOT last month that it had ceased service and had “no objection to the withdrawal of its own-metal designation on these routes.”

Frontier and Southwest Spar Over Chicago-Cancun

As most people reading this blog already know, USA3000 is winding down operations, and will be shutting down at the end of next month. That decision has created an opportunity for Frontier. The Denver-based carrier applied last month for authority to fly from Chicago O’Hare to Cancun, Puerto Vallarta, and Cabo, saying:

The commencement of service will coincide with the termination of service by USA3000 on these routes on or about January 30, 2012. Frontier has entered into an agreement with Apple Vacations to replace Apple Vacations’ current allocation of seats on USA3000′s flights on these routes.

This sounds like a great plan for Frontier, right? The airline can launch some new service in partnership with a well-known travel company, which can provide some nice additional revenue. Unfortunately for Frontier, Southwest has thrown a bit of a wrench in this idea and can potentially prevent Frontier from flying between O’Hare and Cancun.

Southwest can do this because of the current bilateral between the US and Mexico, which in many cases allows three carriers of each country to serve a market. Currently three carriers are allowed to fly between Chicago and Cancun: American, United, and USA3000. The end of USA3000′s service creates an opening for only one carrier, and now Southwest is proposing that its AirTran subsidiary fly to Cancun from Midway with daily year-round service. (Southwest/AirTran did not have any objection to Frontier’s desire to fly to Puerto Vallarta and Cabo.)

Southwest’s sums up its reasoning for why it should get the slots instead pretty well in this paragraph found in a DOT filing:

Because Frontier has no meaningful presence at Chicago, no existing base of Chicago customers, and no feed support for ORD service, it would provide virtually no public benefits beyond the local Cancun market. AirTran/Southwest, on the other hand, with its huge network at Chicago Midway connecting to dozens of cities, will unquestionably be able to generate large amounts of traffic to support MDW – Cancun service as well as to leverage this valuable U.S. authority to the benefit of a large number of communities beyond Chicago.

Frontier has submitted a response, and it’s certainly an interesting read. For example, take a look at this bit (emphasis mine):

With its usual modesty, mega-carrier AirTran/Southwest would have the Department believe that only it could provide substantial public benefits to the traveling public with the third U.S.-carrier designation for the Chicago-Cancun route. However, close scrutiny of the market and the competing applications reveals the fallacy of that position and demonstrates the superiority of Frontier’s O’Hare-Cancun service proposal.

Frontier makes multiple arguments in support of its bid, including that it will be the only carrier going head-to-head against United and American at O’Hare, that it will be using larger aircraft in the route (A320 vs. 737-700), and it will launch service earlier than AirTran.

What I found most interesting is how Frontier tries to use one of Southwest/AirTran’s arguments to show that they don’t understand the Chicago-Cancun market. Here’s what Southwest/AirTran argued:

AirTran explicitly proposes in its application to provide year-round daily service between MDW and CUN. In contrast, Frontier’s application states only that it will operate service between Chicago and Cancun “up to seven times per week,” which clearly suggests that its service will be less than daily for at least part of the year….In addition, while Frontier’s application states that it plans to provide service on a “year-round” basis, Frontier has operated almost all of its current Cancun services on a seasonal (less than year-round) basis. For example, Frontier operates seasonal service in the IND-CUN and SLC-CUN markets (October through April), MKE-CUN (December to April), and MCI-CUN (October to August).

Frontier then argues that what AirTran thinks is an asset of its application is actually a weakness:

AirTran mistakenly believes that it has found an important deficiency with Frontier’s proposal, pointing out that Frontier’s service proposal was for “up to 7 flights weekly” as compared to AirTran’s proposal for daily service. But, that point actually supports Frontier’s application because it underscores AirTran’s lack of understanding of this Mexican beach market.

Frontier continues:

Moreover, it is ironic that AirTran/Southwest would try to make an issue about Frontier’s realistic, year-round schedule proposal given that (i) AirTran only operates 5 times weekly to Cancun from AirTran/Southwest’s Baltimore hub during September/October, (ii) AirTran flies only once per week from Milwaukee to Cancun, and (iii) Southwest has never operated any scheduled service to Mexico.

It’ll be interesting to see how this one turns out for either carrier. Routes like these seem like a great opportunity for Frontier, and of course it’s fun to watch Southwest make moves to build up international service.

Republic Defers Four E190 Deliveries

There was interesting mention in Republic’s earnings announcement today about the carrier’s order book:

The Company recently amended its agreement with Embraer to accept delivery of two E190 aircraft during the fourth quarter. The delivery of the remaining four firm aircraft has been deferred. The Company also gave notice of early termination on two leased E190 aircraft that are expected to be returned to the lessor in late 2012.

This news comes roughly a year after company announced a firm order for six E190s and a conditional order for 18 E190s/E195s that would be placed into service with Republic-subsidiary Frontier.

Also worthy of note is a continued shrink of Frontier’s fleet of regional aircraft. Republic said today by May 2012, only five aircraft with 76 or less seats will be operating in the Frontier network, down from 37 in May 2011. (That fleet includes ERJ-135, ERJ-145, E-170, and Q400 aircraft, but Frontier did not provide a breakdown of the five remaining aircraft next year.)

Republic today reported an ex-item pre-tax net income of $34.5 million for the third quarter, with $15.3 million of that profit coming from the Frontier (branded) segment.

CEO Bryan Bedford noted that “as of today, we have finalized agreements with substantially all of our key stakeholders in the Frontier restructuring effort, and estimate that we have now substantially achieved our target of $120 million of annual improvements. We are beginning to see the benefits of our network restructuring efforts, and our team remains focused on optimizing the fleet at Frontier to produce a sustainable and profitable network.”

Teamsters Sue Republic Over FAPA Concessions

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters has filed a lawsuit against Republic Airways Holdings and Frontier Airlines, alleging that Frontier’s then-pilot union, the Frontier Airlines Pilots Association (FAPA) colluded with management in an attempt to interfere with a pilot election taking place at Republic.

(The Teamsters announced the suit on Wednesday last week — though I didn’t notice the suit until I was scanning through Republic’s second quarter 10-Q, filed with the SEC last evening.)

“On the eve of the ballot count, FAPA gave pay cuts and other concessions to management in a desperate effort to avoid a vote of the pilots and short circuit the NMB [National Mediation Board] election,” said Captain David Bourne, IBT Airline Division Director in a news release. Bourne also said the deal would “help FAPA perpetuate itself at Frontier no matter what the outcome of the votes of the pilots.”

Republic unveiled a $100 million restructuring program for Frontier earlier this year, though that $100 million target was later upped to $120 million. As part of that program, a concessionary agreement was created and then overwhelmingly approved by FAPA membership in June. The Teamsters now seek to nullify this agreement.

In its 10-Q, Republic said if “the restructuring agreement is declared null and void, Frontier would lose approximately $9 million to $10 million in cost savings per year over each of the next five years”. The company also said that the IBT’s “allegations are baseless.”

Republic had previously outlined the savings from the pilot deal in an earlier SEC filing, saying that they would peak at $12 million in both 2012 and 2013, though savings would be realized from 2011 though 2016. The net present value of these cost cutting measures was calculated to be $39.3 million, the value of FAPA’s equity stake in Frontier.

The lawsuit comes after a period of interesting developments in the pilot labor situation at the Republic carriers. Earlier this year the NMB concluded after an investigation requested by the Teamsters that all of the Republic carriers were operating as a single transportation system. A union election was subsequently authorized. The Teamsters, the union that had already represented pilots at Republic carriers such as Republic Airlines, Chautauqua, and Shuttle American, won this election in June.

Before the Teamsters succeeded in their election bid, however, Republic had attempted to delay the tally of the election results, arguing that its restructuring and a planned reduction in its stake in Frontier could affect the ruling that all of the Republic airlines were composed of a single transportation system. The NMB denied this request.

 

Items of Note – August 8, 2011

So, lately I’ve been thinking about changing up the blog format a bit to make the site a bit more news-y. Sometimes there are stories that I just can’t analyze all that much, but I still think are worth a few lines, whether it be a link to a story or few thoughts of my own. I still plan on doing many of my traditional posts, but I want to give this format a try as well. Let me know your thoughts!

Delta Changes Equipment on LAX-HND
According to the always-informative Airline Route blog, later this fall Delta is placing its A330-200s on the Los Angeles – Tokyo (Haneda) route, a capacity reduction from the 777-200s currently operating the flights. Delta re-started service to Haneda from Detroit and Los Angeles in June after suspending flights in response to the March 2011 Japanese earthquake. Flights from Detroit, however, will be ending in a few weeks, something that is enabled by the extended dormancy waiver that Delta recently received from the DOT.

Frontier Announces Winter Florida Service
Frontier announced some seasonal Florida service yesterday. Some of the routes are normal resumptions, but the carrier is also adding new seasonal service from Des Moines to Orlando and Tampa, and from Madison to ORlando. Des Moines-Orlando is interesting as it appears that AirTran/SouthTran/Southwest is no longer in the market. Allegiant, however, flies from Des Moines to both Orlando (Sanford) and St. Petersburg.

The other interesting piece of the release is that service from Milwaukee and Omaha to the Tampa area has shifted back to Tampa International. Last year, Frontier had experimented with service to St. Petersburg from these cities.

Frontier Adds Two New Denver Destinations
The airline also said yesterday that it would add two new destinations from Denver – Little Rock (six times weekly) and Palm Springs (seasonal, thrice weekly). United has a presence in both markets. Meanwhile, Frontier is fine-tuning its capacity, adding a few flights each week from Denver to to Las Vegas, Madison, San Diego, and Santa Barbara for a short period of time.

In Other News…

  • The fight between US Airways and USAPA, the union representing the carrier’s pilots, continues to escalate with the airline now seeking a restraining order against the union. Fun times.
  • Much like Continental and Air France, American now has a new service that allows one to lock in a fare for an extended period of time.
  • Airlines appear to be rolling back the fare increases that came in response to the FAA tax holiday.
  • Vision Airlines announced that it is dropping five cities from its route map – Asheville, Chattanooga, Knoxville, Lafayette, and Shreveport – as part of its winter schedule. The carrier dropped service to a few other cities last month.
  • JetBlue will be operating charter flights to Cuba.

Republic Tried (And Failed) To Postpone Pilot Union Election Tally

Ever since its purchase of Frontier in 2009, Republic Airways Holdings has just been fascinating to observe. Lately, labor has been a very interesting issue, as Frontier’s pilots recently authorized concessions as Frontier looks to restructure its business, and a short while later the International Brotherhood of Teamsters was selected as the one union to represent all pilots at Republic subsidiaries (including the furloughed Midwest pilots).

Frontier’s pilots had previously been represented by the Frontier Airlines Pilots Association (FAPA), while pilots at other Republic subsidiaries (Shuttle America, Republic, Chautauqua) were represented by the Teamsters. The Midwest pilots were ALPA, while the United Transportation Union represented Lynx’s pilots.

The recent election for pilot representation came after the National Mediation Board concluded in April that all of the carriers were operating as a single transportation system. A union election was authorized a month later. (FAPA had asked for reconsideration by the NMB’s decision remained.)

Before the scheduled tally of the votes, NMB documents indicate that Republic had requested the NMB to “postpone the tally scheduled for June 27, 2011 while it considers whether a corporate restructuring and planned divestiture of majority ownership of Frontier Airlines, Inc. (Frontier) affects the Board’s determination that Frontier is part of the single transportation system with the RAH operating subsidiaries.”

Republic held that the situation had changed now that it had entered into a new labor agreement with FAPA. As part of this deal, Republic agreed to changes including an agreement to “further separate the Frontier management structure to include appointing a separate Frontier Chief Operating Officer and an independent Director of Labor Relations for Frontier” and also had also “agreed to divest itself of its majority equity stake in Frontier no later than December 31, 2014, after which a separate Frontier Board of Directors would be established.

In its response, however, the NMB said that Republic did “not cite any Board precedent to support its request and the Board, when faced with similar facts in past cases, has denied requests to delay representation investigations pending the completion of business transactions.”

Interesting stuff. I would imagine having a single union across all the Republic carriers could certainly have an effect on Republic’s possible future attempts at attracting new investment into Frontier.

The Republic neo Order Makes Sense! Sort of!

Yesterday, it was announced that Republic had signed an MOU for up to 80 A320neo-family aircraft. The fact that the company made the order in the first place isn’t all that shocking, as the carrier had dropped a major hint about it during its first quarter earnings call.

What was more interesting was the make-up of the order – 40 A319neos and 40 A320neos. The latter makes perfect sense. But the former is a bit of a head-scratcher since Republic already has Bombardier’s CS300 on order, which is basically the same size.

Now, if were Republic to mention that it had canceled its CSeries order, that would’ve made sense, especially because Republic also has 40 of those aircraft on order. But Republic has said yesterday that the order is still on!

The other confusing item is that Republic decided to go with CFM for the engines. The only engine option for the CSeries is Pratt & Whitney’s new P1000G. That engine is also an option for the A320neo family, though it’s a slightly different version than the CSeries. Either way, it seems like Republic might want to keep things simple and have the same engine family powering its two narrowbody flights of the same size but from different vendors.

But, as I did some research, the order began to make more and more sense, especially when you place it against the backdrop that Frontier is essentially in survival mode these days and in the midst of restructuring….and Frontier’s engine choice seems to have a lot to do with it.

Frontier’s current Airbus fleet is powered with CFM56 engines, and Frontier’s MOU with CFM about the LEAP-X includes “a reduction in the overhaul cost of existing Airbus engines,” according to an SEC filing.

Now, here’s the other part of my theory. CFM is a 50/50 joint venture between GE and Snecma. Many of Frontier’s aircraft are leased from GECAS, another part of GE. That same SEC filing said that Frontier was able to renegotiate its A319 leases with them. Four aircraft are now going back next year, but the remaining 18 are sticking around for an extra three years at a reduced lease rate. Synergy!

So does Republic’s order necessarily make sense from a long-term fleet perspective? Probably not, and we’ll see if the CSeries order sticks around. Even if the order stays around, Republic now has a lot of airplanes starting to come in the 2015-2016 timeframe, and those will probably all end up with Frontier barring a new branded operation or massive scope relief at a mainline carrier.

But, this move does make sense for an airline that’s trying to survive and restructure, and this deal has plenty of pieces to make Frontier’s short-term results improve.

Of course, I do have some other questions. First, would this still have happened if FAPA had not approved those labor concessions?

Secondly, what’s up with Airbus’ $25 million loan to Frontier? The airframer’s financial services arm made it in October 2009, and according to a Republic 10-Q from the time, “the loan is scheduled to be repaid in twelve quarterly installments with interest beginning in January 2010.”

Yesterday’s SEC filing said this:

In connection with the term sheet the Company entered into (i) an amendment to the Credit Agreement with Airbus Financial Services, dated as of October 30, 2009 between the Company, Frontier and Lynx Aviation, Inc., a subsidiary of the Company, and (ii) an amendment to Frontier’s purchase agreement with Airbus.

So in review…Frontier is probably still getting money from Airbus, they probably got neos cheap, they probably got engines cheap, they got cheaper lease rates for a significant portion of its fleet, and also now have cheaper engine maintenance rates.

Not too shabby.

Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, especially from the CSeries angle.

(Updated to reflect change in Airbus loan…completely missed that in the filing!)

Frontier Reaches Tentative Deal With Pilots

Apologies for the lack of content of late…at least I’m back on track for today! :)

Anyway…

So, as of late, Frontier Airlines hasn’t been doing terribly well. According to parent company Republic’s latest 10-Q, the Frontier segment of the business had an operating loss of $46.4 million in the first quarter. Granted, that’s still an improvement from $61.4 million operating loss during the same period in 2010, but it was still more than enough to wipe out the profits in Republics fixed-fee and “other” segment for a total operating loss of $0.6 million.

Photo credit: Jay Bowie.

During last month’s first quarter earnings call Republic management announced a new program to restructure Frontier and make it profitable. We’ve already seen some interesting changes. For example, 17 E-170s are leaving Frontiers fleet, and 14 of these are entering service with Delta Connection (the remaining three will enter service for a mainline partner as well).

Friday afternoon we saw a new development, as Republic made a filing with the SEC outlining a new tentative agreement with its pilots as part of this program. Frontier’s pilots are represented by the Frontier Airlines Pilots Association (FAPA). Let’s take a look at the deal:

What the Pilots Give:

  • Some pay increases are postponed
  • Republic contributes less to the pilot 401(k) retirement plan
  • Reduced vacation/sick day accrual
  • Extension of collective bargaining agreement for two years

These changes are being referred to as the “investment” by FAPA, by the way.

What Pilots Get:

  • An equity stake in Frontier
  • Republic agrees to “certain other conditions which must be met during the term to continue the Investment by FAPA,” including:
    • “Aircraft growth at Frontier”
    • Raising $70 million in liquidity “through one or more debt issuances or other financings”
    • “Material execution” of Frontier’s restructuring plan by the end of this year
    • Republic make a “good faith effort” to attract new investment into Frontier that reduce Republic’s stake in the company to “a minority interest by December 31, 2014″
  • Republic will also launch profit sharing for all employees

The agreement was reached on Friday, and pilot voting is expected to be completed this Friday, so things are moving on a pretty fast timeline.

Overall, I like this deal. I think it speaks volumes that management and FAPA were able to reach a deal quickly. Of course, I might eat my words if this deal doesn’t pass a vote, but the Frontier pilots seem willing to do what is necessary to improve Frontier’s performance and long-term viability.

The other reason I like this agreement is that it rewards the pilots if the plan to turn Frontier around is successful. For example, the equity stake will increase in value if Frontier becomes profitable. And, of course, all employees will benefit if that happens through the new profit sharing program.

What’s really throwing me for a loop is the line about making an effort to attract investor(s) so that Republic’s shareholding will decrease. How exactly should this be interpreted? Does it indicate any unhappiness (on either side) about Republic’s investment in Frontier?

The other questions floating around in my head:

  • What are the next adjustments coming down the pike for Frontier? (We might not be hearing about this until the next earnings call.)
  • Who’s willing to give Republic $70 million, and at what interest rate? (If they pursue debt financing.)
  • Are some at Republic regretting their decision to acquire Frontier?
  • One of the issues (supposedly) that halted a possible Southwest acquisition of Frontier was the lack of a labor agreement between FAPA and SWAPA. Are there some Frontier pilots out there who would rather be Southwest employees right now?
  • Two big things that can affect Frontier – what happens with Continental/United in Denver and AirTran/Southwest and Milwaukee after their respective mergers?

Why Last Week’s Republic Announcement is Interesting on Multiple Levels

Last week, Republic Airways Holdings announced it would be transferring an additional six Embraer 170 aircraft from Frontier to Delta Connection operations from July through October. In January, Republic announced the transfer of eight 170s to Delta. Once all the transfers take place Republic subsidiaries will be operating 54 aircraft for Delta – 16 E175s, 14 E170s, and 24 E145s.

This news release is interesting for many reasons.

First, it’s good to see Republic to gain some new CPA business, especially as (right now) because “unless otherwise extended or amended, the E145 code-share agreement” that Republic has with Continental “terminates on September 4, 2012,” according to Republic’s most recent 10-K. That document indicates seven aircraft will leave service this year with eight more in 2012.

Second, this move has implications for Republic’s sources of revenues, since the aircraft are coming out of the branded operation and into the fixed-fee business. On the fixed-fee side, Delta is Republic’s third-largest partner, representing 18% of fixed-fee revenue for 2010, according to Republic’s 10-K. That same document says US Airways and United accounted for 38% and 31% of their fixed-fee revenue, respectively. In addition, US Airways and United each contributed 15% and 12% (respectively) to Republic’s total operating revenue last year.

Using those numbers and a few other data points from the 10-K we can estimate Republic’s revenue sources and we get something like this:

By increasing Delta flying, it appears that this move will better balance the amount of revenue that each of Republic’s top three partners contributes to the company. It’s also worthy of note that on the fixed-fee side of the house, it’s the mainline carrier that takes on the fuel price risk – not Republic.

From the Delta side of things, it’s interesting to see them retire DC-9s, 50-seat RJs, and Saab 340s, while building up the 70-seat RJs. The retirements outnumber the additions but it’s still interesting to watch.

But back to Frontier.

The carrier was already planning to remove the E170 from service, but previously the carrier wasn’t expecting the aircraft to leave until 2013.

In addition, the six E190s that the carrier had on order for the Frontier operation will “delayed by an average of two months due to part delays as a result of the earthquake in Japan.” Those aircraft were originally slated to enter service in the second half of this year, but due to the delays will not be delivered until the beginning of 2012.

Lots of interesting stuff to consider here, and there are still a lot of details to sort through (i.e. what routes are affected by the cuts). Hopefully more to come.

Frontier is Now Advertising on Hulu

A couple of weeks ago, I noticed one of my roommates at school watching a Frontier television spot on his computer. Most of Frontier’s advertisements are on the humorous side, so I first thought that someone sent him a YouTube clip. I was wrong – he was viewing the ad while watching a show on the video streaming website Hulu. I experienced the same thing earlier this week.

As you can see, a normal Frontier television advertisement runs, but there is also smaller ad visible to those not viewing the program in full screen. In this case, Frontier was advertising included first and second bags for its Classic and Classic Plus fares, and I’ve also seen a smaller advertisements about their onboard cookies.

I think Frontier has made a really smart advertising decision here. Note that the advertisement was “personalized” by Hulu’s Ad Tailor product. Occasionally Hulu presents its users with short survey questions, and in many cases viewers can also note if specific ads are relevant to them. I would guess that there’s something in my profile that makes me more likely to see Frontier’s advertisements. So, thanks to the Ad Tailor, Frontier can more effectively reach its target market, which means more bang for its advertising buck.

There are few other reasons I like Frontier’s decision to utilize this medium.

First, it probably doesn’t make sense for Frontier to run a whole lot of television advertising in markets where it doesn’t have a huge presence. Using a streaming service like Hulu most likely allows Frontier to access many markets economically.

Second – I wonder if television spots are more memorable on Hulu. One sees far less advertising on Hulu compared to watching the same shows on television, so do the online ads stick out more?

I am also going to guess that Hulu advertising is more measurable compared to television spots. Sure, someone can measure website traffic in aggregate as a television campaign rolls out, but Frontier should be able to measure the number of people clicking on its Hulu ads to see if the strategy is working.

Finally, I’m also wondering if Frontier is looking to advertise to a new segment of potential customers here. After catching on to Hulu a few years ago, I barely watch regular television anymore, and I’m guessing there are plenty of others out there who are using online streaming more frequently.

Anyway, I really like what Frontier is trying here. Kudos for being creative, as I’ve never seen another airline try Hulu before. (I could be wrong, though!) EDIT 3/10: Apparently JetBlue has done some Hulu advertising.

Of course, it helps that Frontier has had a very successful, award-winning advertising campaign for years.

Frontier is the Latest to Cut Capacity Growth

Frontier released its February traffic results today – capacity was down 3% year-over-year along with a 2% boost in traffic, resulting in a 5 point boost in load factor, to 76%. The carrier has now reported twelve consecutive months of record monthly load factors.

But the airline, a subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings, also said that it now expects that capacity in the second quarter to be flat compared to the second quarter of 2010. The company notes that it hasd”previously issued guidance of capacity growth in the 1.5% to 2.5% range for the second quarter.”

Frontier’s VP of Revenue Production Greg Aretakis said that “booking volume continues to outperform for the spring months compared to last year, and our revenue continues to build very positively in comparison to last year,” but Frontier is altering its schedule due to “uncertainty of future oil prices.”