Archive for the 'Southwest' CategoryPage 4 of 19

Southwest And FlightStats – Mystery Solved

Published
by
Dan Webb
on January 19, 2011
in Southwest
. 2 Comments

Recently, there was some media buzz about FlightStats and its reports about Southwest’s on-time performance.

The first concern was that the reports indicated a steep decline in Southwest’s operational performance. In fact, December data only showed that a little over half of the airlines flights were arriving on time. What was also interesting is that there was a significant discrepancy (sometimes over a ten point spread) between FlightStats’ numbers and Southwest’s numbers in the monthly Air Travel Consumer Report released by the DOT.

It appears that the mystery has finally been solved. FlightStats was relying on an FAA data feed for Southwest’s gate times, and that source was changed in September, causing the discrepancy between FlightStats and DOT.

So, why didn’t other airlines that report data to the government see the see a hit in their performance? Well, a lot of other carriers provide their operating data to third parties, so FlightStats had another good source for gate times for those carriers. Southwest, however, does not share its data to companies like FlightStats.

Now that the problem has been identified, Southwest will be excluded from FlightStats’ monthly reports, though FlightStats hopes that will change. A company representative told me that ”we are committed to complete and accurate data and seek a direct relationship with Southwest to assure the public and the media useful, timely and accurate information.”

Whether that happens is a different question. A Southwest representative wrote in a post on FlyerTalk that “developing this kind of one-off, 3rd-party distribution capability isn’t an expense that contributes in any way to safety, low fares or customer service, which are our #1 objectives.”

Anyway, while FlightStats’ numbers for the past couple of months have been on the negative side – government statistics show that Southwest has had trouble with on-time performance of late. The airline was ranked 16th (out of 18 reporting carriers)  for November by the government. The airline ranked 17th in October.

On Southwest’s On-Time Performance

Published
by
Dan Webb
on January 10, 2011
in Southwest
. 5 Comments

Last week, a friend sent me an interesting Chicago Sun-Times piece about Southwest’s December on-time performance, which, according to FlightStats, was a whopping 55% during the month. Of course, parts of the month were affected by weather, but some of Southwest’s peers had over 80% of their flights arrive on-time (within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival).

What’s very interesting thing is that there is a big difference between Southwest’s and FlightStats’ numbers. In October – the latest month for which government data is available – Southwest’s on-time percentage reported in the DOT’s Air Travel Consumer Report was 77.9%, while FlightStats reported it at 65.5%.

Minor differences between the two sources is not all to surprising, but such a wide spread is. For comparison’s sake, United’s performance as reported by the DOT was 89.9% for October, while FlightStats reported 89.1%. That’s interesting because according the DOT Air Travel Consumer Report, Southwest and United both use ACARS for their reporting.

According to the article, Southwest and FlightStats are now trying to figure out what’s going on. But even looking at government data – there is some reason to wonder about Southwest’s performance. The airline ranked ninth of the airlines that report their DOT numbers in October 2009, while Southwest came was 17th in the same month in 2010. Meanwhile, Southwest’s on-time performance for October decreased year-over-year while it improved for all airlines that report overall. Poor on-time performance is certainly is worrying for a few reasons:

  1. Southwest’s recent focus on business travelers. The airline has focused more on business travelers lately, adding markets like LaGuardia and re-vamping its frequent flyer program to reward passengers who pay for higher fares. Southwest has a good sales pitch for business travel, but poor on-time performance hurts that.
  2. The addition of the 737-800. Southwest’s announcement that it would add the larger 737-800 to its fleet was certainly exciting, but has operational and scheduling implications. Logic would dictate that a 737-800 would take more time to turn between flights, so that requires scheduling adjustments, and probably some additional ground handling procedures.
  3. AirTran. Adding AirTran brings another fleet type, the 717, arguably adding more complexity to Southwest’s operation. Meanwhile, if something is off with Southwest at the moment, logic would dictate that only makes an acquisition more difficult.

Now, just for fun (really!), I decided to take a closer look at some of Southwest’s numbers. The DOT on-time database is quite comprehensive, and as a bonus its free! I decided to analyze Philadelphia as its one of those busier business markets that Southwest has entered over the past few years, and US Airways’ hub provides a nice basis for comparison. (Only US Airways mainline is included.) Plus, US Airways has been focusing on on-time performance over the past few years.

Before I get going – usual disclaimer on data-laden posts. My analysis, provided on an “as-is” basis, is based on DOT data. I am relying on the fact on that data being accurate (and who knows if that’s the case with this FlightStats situation). Also, there’s always the chance that I screwed up at some point. If anyone’s interested in how I calculated these results feel free to drop me a note. Anyway…

Photo Credit: Jay Bowie. Used with permission.

First off,  Southwest’s on-time performance in Philadelphia did slip a little bit from 2009 to 2010, from 74.8% to 72.2%. So there was a bit of a decrease, but nothing huge. Despite the lack of a major change (based on DOT data), there are still some interesting results to look at. It appears that Philadelphia – for lack of a better word – “amplifies” Southwest delays. As you can see below, departures are, on average, more off-schedule than arrivals. (Any diversions, which have departure delay times, are excluded.)

Those departure delays get pretty lengthy at some points during the day, so here’s a comparison to US Airways mainline:

Now, none of US Airways’ results here have regional flights, so I decided to focus on one route – Philadelphia to Boston (only in that direction) for a specific apples-to-apples comparison. US Airways has had a stranglehold on the market for awhile, and Southwest shook things up last year. There are some Republic flights mixed in so I focused on weekdays to minimize those. For on-time performance percentages, this chart excludes cancellations and diversions. (For the DOT’s monthly reports, cancellations end up hurting on-time performance. I decided to exclude them here to get what I think is a better sense of operational performance on this specific route.)

Yeah, not that pretty. It seems that the source of most delays for Southwest are on the ground. In fact, more of Southwest’s arrivals and departures to/from Philadelphia are shorter than scheduled (form gate to gate) than US Airways flights. Such a result would indicate that Southwest’s schedule, at least in terms of flight duration, could be a bit more padded than US Airways.

Meanwhile, US Airways’ better performance could indicate its turnaround times are more indicative of reality, and that the airline runs a good operation at Philadelphia (rewarding employees for on-time performance helps in that area). So let’s just go with my guess that something’s off on the ground.

Are Southwest’s legendary short turn times still realistic? The carrier appears to be carrying more connecting passengers than before (a subject of a whole other post) – and anecdotal evidence suggests Southwest is more willing to hold flights for connections. The airline’s load factors are also high – Southwest’s flights were 80.4% full in December – that’s 10.7 percentage points higher than December 2008. These situations create new challenges that the airline must address, whether it be schedule adjustments, new ground handling procedures, or perhaps extra manpower.

Anyway, here’s hoping you found this at least slightly interesting! I think this is certainly worth further examination, especially when the DOT releases the November numbers later this month. At that point I’ll probably examine a few more airports.

Thoughts on Southwest’s Change Fee Ads

Published
by
Dan Webb
on January 4, 2011
in Southwest
. 9 Comments

Over the weekend I discovered that Southwest has now rolled out advertisements about its lack of a change fee. I’m pretty confident that Southwest has tattooed ”bags fly free” onto every American’s head through their extensive television advertising on that subject, so it makes sense to show off some other aspects of the airline now. Plus, I’ve anecdotally heard that the lack of the change fee is what keeps some travelers loyal to Southwest.

YouTube Preview Image

Changing flights on Southwest isn’t completely free except if one is flying on a fully refundable ticket. For non-refundable fares, one will have to pay any difference in fare, but Southwest doesn’t charge an additional $150 like some other airlines. One nice benefit of this policy is that it’s quite easy to take advantage of fare decreases and use the credit towards future travel.

But on the actual day of travel, I would argue that Southwest’s policy isn’t that great. There’s no change fee, but the same policy about fares applies. The difference between a fare paid six months out and on the same day of travel will probably be significant. Other carriers are are a bit different. United, for example, will charge $75 for a confirmed flight change or $50 for standby, while uber-elite Global Services and 1K passengers get both for free.

I think it’s great that Southwest doesn’t charge $150 for flight changes, and it’s a very favorable policy for customers making changes ahead of time. But for same-day changes, the difference in Southwest fares can be greater than the fees of other airlines. I’d rather have Southwest introduce some kind of fee for reservation changes or standby on the same day of travel. Having a lower fee or offering free changes/standby for A-List members could also make Rapid Rewards more attractive to business travelers.

If Southwest kept its current policy for reservation changes more than a day out, and introduced a fee for same-day changes that was less than other carriers, then I think they’d be far ahead of their competitors in this area.

Is Southwest Gearing Up For ETOPS?

Published
by
Dan Webb
on December 10, 2010
in Southwest
. 3 Comments

Earlier today, a very interesting job opening was posted on Southwest’s website, and the title speaks for itself:

You can see the whole job posting here.

Southwest possibly applying for ETOPS certification is not all that surprising, especially since Hawaii was mentioned a couple of time’s at the airline’s annual media event in October.

It’s also interesting to view this in the context that Southwest, while it has yet to formally announce an order, seems pretty much decided that it will add the 737-800 to its fleet, which according to the airline could be arriving in 2012.

Also worth noting is an interesting post on FlyerTalk, which speculates that all future 737 deliveries will be ETOPS-equipped, including three 737-700s that Southwest has acquired that were previously operated by Virgin Blue. The aircraft are registered N522WN, N523WN, and N524WN (previously VH-VBQ, VH-VBR, and VH-VBS).

If Southwest wants to obtain this certification, there are a whole bunch of steps such as aircraft equipment and maintenance procedures. If you’re interested you can read through the relevant  FAA AC here.

While this is all speculation…seeing this job posting makes it seem a bit more likely that we could see Southwest 737s flying to Honolulu in a few years.

Hat tip to curbcrusher on FlyerTalk for the find.

Southwest Pilots Approve New Contract

Published
by
Dan Webb
on December 1, 2010
in Southwest
. 0 Comments

Southwest has announced this afternoon that its pilots have approved a new contract with the company – which allows Southwest to move forward with plans to acquire the 737-800. The carrier’s flight attendants approved a new contract a couple of weeks ago.

The airline says it can now finalize “discussions with the Boeing Company regarding substitutions of the 737-800s for the -700 positions, and configuration and equipage options. Southwest currently expects to take delivery of its first 737-800 in the first quarter of 2012.”

Hopefully we’ll get some more details about this by year’s end. It’ll be interesting to see how Southwest configures it. I’d love to seem them try some kind of premium offering like STRETCH, Even More Legroom, or Economy Plus.

Southwest Makes More Progress on the -800

Published
by
Dan Webb
on November 22, 2010
in Southwest
. 3 Comments

I’m playing a bit of catch-up today since a few exams last week forced me to focus a bit less on the airline stuff.

Anyway – Southwest made more progress on adding the Boeing 737-800 to its fleet last week, with its flight attendants, represented by the Transport Workers Union 556, ratified a tentative agreement that the union reached with the company earlier this year that adds the -800 to their collective bargaining agreement.

All of Southwest’s flights are currently staffed with three flight attendants, while the -800 would require a fourth due to its larger size.

The agreement was overwhelmingly approved – with 84.6% of those flight attendants cast ballots approving the agreement. Turnout seemed a little bit low, with only 38.7% of eligible voters casting a ballot, according to the TWU 556′s homepage.

But more needs to be done for Southwest to add the additional type to its fleet. First, Southwest says that it is still waiting for a vote on a TA with the company’s pilots, represented by SWAPA. The airline also says it has yet to complete evaluating the type.

Southwest hasn’t revealed much in terms of details about any potential -800 order, but in August Mike Van de Ven, Southwest’s COO, wrote in a blog post that the airline “would need to make a final decision by December 1 to begin accepting deliveries by early 2012.”

Republic and Southwest Spar over DCA Slot Pair (Part 1)

Published
by
Dan Webb
on November 1, 2010
in Frontier, Republic and Southwest
. 0 Comments

I have to say, I find the competition for two Midwest slots at DCA last week to be completely fascinating – especially the battle between Southwest and Republic.

If you didn’t see my post from last week- here’s a quick summary. The DOT has established a slot proceeding for two slots that use to be held by Midwest. These slots have rules prohibiting their transfer, and the DOT decided that Republic’s acquisition of Midwest constituted a transfer.

So now we have Republic wanting to hold on to the slot to maintain current Kansas City service, and Southwest wants to start their own. Sun Country is applying for Lansing service (which will start or end in Minneapolis), AirTran is looking to expand Ft. Myers service or add Sarasota, and US Airways wants to fly to Pensacola.

But let’s focus on Republic and Southwest, because that’s been the most exciting.

Southwest’s application mentions Republic’s current service, and the arguments are what you’d expect in this situation – Southwest says their fares to Kansas City will be lower than Republic/Frontier’s and US Airways’. They also note that Kansas City can provide connecting service, and that their 737 aircraft would introduce more capacity into the market compared to the E-Jets currently being flown by US Airways and Frontier.

After the initial applications, carriers then get the chance to reply. This is where things get interesting. Let’s look at some highlights from Republic’s comments.

The airline says that Southwest “seeks to play a spoiler role to undermine Republic/Frontier’s position at Kansas City.”

Republic continues: “It is particularly gluttonous of mega-carrier Southwest to seek these slot exemptions since (i) it will soon have control of more DCA slots than Republic through its acquisition of AirTran Airways, (ii) it is the largest carrier at BWI, and (iii) it has established operations at lAD, thereby bracketing the entire Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Region with its services.”

Republic continues to criticize the competing proposal, writing that “Southwest’s proposal to operate one daily roundtrip as its entry into DCA is suspect at best and pure fantasy at worst.”

Republic notes that DCA would be a very small Southwest station and notes that the airline “has never started service at a new airport on its route system with a single daily roundtrip service, and currently serves no airport in its route network with fewer than five daily departures. Presumably, that is because a single daily flight does not constitute a critical mass for economically viable service, nor does it permit Southwest to exploit the efficiencies of a larger, quick-turn network.”

Then, I think Republic is brilliant here, calling Southwest’s application “irresponsible and does a grave disservice to the traveling public,” bringing up Southwest’s comments earlier this year about the US Airways/Delta slot swap. You know, when Southwest said that 14 slot pairs to be given up at DCA weren’t enough.

Republic then quotes a few bits and pieces from Southwest’s filling. I decided to find Southwest’s comments from earlier this year and post them:

Competition from Southwest or other new entrant carriers at LGA and DCA, especially in business markets, is not likely to be effective without enough slots to offer a pattern of flights throughout the day in each market served. Even if a single carrier were to acquire all of the divested slots proposed in FAA’s notice, that would realistically support competitive service in at most three or four LGA markets (20 round trips total) and only two or three DCA markets (fourteen round trips total). If the acquiring carrier were to use the divested slots to serve four LGA routes and three DCA routes, for example, its frequency would be no more than five flights per day – the bare minimum necessary to offer a competitive presence in those markets.

Republic , I think, was very smart to pull this out. I have the same question – earlier this year, Southwest was talking about  how it (or another carrier) would need multiple slots to provide strong competition at National, yet now the airline says it can with only one flight.

Anyway, because this goes on even further, I’m going to split this one up into a few pieces. More shortly…

Looking at Yesterday’s Southwest Announcements

Published
by
Dan Webb
on October 29, 2010
in Southwest
. 0 Comments

Southwest had their annual media event yesterday (yours truly was invited but chose not to attend due to school commitments), and they had three big announcements. I just wanted to provide a few thoughts on each.

Newark

It was very interesting to see Continental/United give up 18 slot pairs at Newark in order for the DOJ to allow their merger to close. When that was announced, Southwest said it would start up in March and operate a full schedule in June. The first eight flights were announced yesterday – six to Midway and two to St. Louis, both starting on March 27.

Midway isn’t shocking. It’s always a solid guess when Southwest announces a new city but doesn’t announce any routes – it’s a large market as it is and – even though Southwest doesn’t use this word – it’s a hub.

St. Louis certainly might seem a bit more interesting, but I think it makes sense. Southwest has really built up that station as American has trimmed back, and it can work for some connections, and a big one is Dallas. Southwest still has about four more years of being stuck with the Wright Amendment – and from what I can tell, St. Louis is the city with a nonstop Dallas flight that provides the shortest (distance-wise) route to/from Newark.

But this works from the St. Louis end as well, I think. My theory is this – Southwest has been working to build up business travel – possibly from American frequent fliers. New York, obviously,  is a big business market. So this move could make Southwest look even more attractive.

With ten unused slot pairs, Southwest has more Newark service to announce. Right now the schedule is set to be extended again on November 16 – so it would not surprise me to see those additional flights announced then.

Wi-Fi Pricing (Sort Of)

I don’t have much to say about Southwest’s Wi-Fi service, as I have yet to try it in person. That being said, Southwest has decided on a flat $5 price for service after playing around with a bunch of price points. It should be noted, however, that this is only an introductory rate.

Volaris

Southwest had some details to announce about its Volaris partnership – passengers will be able to start booking combined itineraries on November 12, and travel will start on December 1. Bags will be transferred between the two airlines, but you’ll have to check-in for both flights, which isn’t uber-convenient. That being said, with no codesharing going on to/from Mexico right now due to the FAA’s safety downgrade of Mexico, this partnership doesn’t look horrible compared to others. That being said, it’d be nice to see this develop further, and also for Southwest to add more partners.

The Bachelor: DCA Slot Edition

Published
by
Dan Webb
on October 28, 2010
in AirTran, JetBlue, Republic, Southwest, Sun Country and US Airways
. 2 Comments

There are two slots (one pair) up for grabs at Washington National – and a few airlines are fighting over them. Picking up slots at a restricted like National is a rare opportunity, and it’s always interesting to see carriers argue about it. Eventually, the DOT will have to choose who should get them. It’s basically like the TV show The Bachelor, I guess. I’ve never watched it, honestly.

Granted, the applications came in a couple of weeks ago, but I’ve really wanted to blog about this.

First – let’s talk about how these slots became available in the first place. There are slots currently being used by Republic for Kansas City service that was inherited from the Midwest acquisition – and that’s the problem. These slots can’t be transferred. Republic argued last year that they should hold on to the slots, noting how they were keeping the Midwest brand and such, but the DOT disagreed:

After careful review, we have concluded that a “transfer” of exemptions has in fact occurred. Midwest, the party to which the awards were granted, has now ceased to exist as a carrier. Unlike Frontier, which was acquired by Republic but still operates as a subsidiary under its own operating certificate, Midwest clearly no longer holds or operates the exemptions, and Republic’s claim to these exemptions arises only as a result of its transaction with Midwest.

Another interesting mention in the DOT’s letter from November:

Moreover, the fact that Midwest operated relatively few slots was deemed a key factor in its qualifying for award of the slot slide exemptions. When Midwest’s various applications for the five slot slides were considered, the Department noted in approving them that Midwest met a statutory “exceptional circumstances” requirement in part because it had operational limitations due to holding only a limited number of slots at DCA. Based on FAA August 2009 data, we understand that Republic holds over one hundred exemptions at DCA – a fact that clearly distinguishes its current status from that of Midwest when Midwest was awarded the exemptions.

This is an interesting situation for Republic. Of course, those slots are tied up with their US Airways Express operation at DCA. In its application for the slots a few weeks ago (which I’ll be getting into more shortly), Republic argued:

RJET obtained the slots in a sale/leaseback transaction with US Airways in 2005, as a financing mechanism to enable US Airways to raise additional money…US Airways has retained complete control over and has the exclusive right to use the slots. Importantly, although RJET is listed as the holder of record of those slots, Republic has no control over the use of, nor can it sell, the DCA slots. Moreover, US Airways has the right to repurchase the commuter slots at any time.

Anyway – after analyzing the situation, the DOT decided to launch a proceeding to determine what airline should receive the slots. A quick summary of the applications.

Republic, not surprisingly, wants to hold on to the slots for its current Kansas City service. These slots are used for one of the airline’s three Kansas City flights under its branded service. “Failure to grant the slot exemptions to Republic would result in substantial harm to leisure, business, and government travelers, the affected local and beyond communities, and inter-carrier competition,” says the airline in its application. The carrier is “proposing to operate Stage 3-compliant, 99-seat ERJ-190 aircraft between DCA and MCI with these two slot exemptions, effective December 1, 2010″ and adds that “effective December 1, 2010, all three of Republic’s nonstop DCA-MCI services will
be operated with 99-seat ERJ-190 aircraft.” Right now, this is an E-170 route. Just for reference, US Airways also has DCA-MCI service, some of which is provided by Republic.

Next up is AirTran, looking to obtain the slots the slots for service to Ft. Myers (a market it already serves from DCA) or Sarasota. The airline doesn’t commit to an aircraft type, saying it will use either 717s or 737-700s. I just found this application a bit interesting, since in the past AirTran has tried to get the ability to reduce its Ft. Myers service. Meanwhile, US Airways serves both of these markets, but it appears that Ft. Myers flights are seasonal.

Speaking of US Airways, the carrier has tossed its hat in the ring as well, proposing service to Pensacola. This is the “third within perimeter slot allocation proceeding in four years in which US Airways has applied,” the airline notes. Service would be operated with E-175s during the summer and 170s during the winter. “With 99-seat Embraer EMB-190s a part of US Airways’ fleet, US Airways could further increase seats should demand warrant,” US Airways adds.

Southwest has also applied for the slots for its own flights to Kansas City. Had this been a year or two ago, I would’ve been shocked by this application, but the airline publicly showed its interest in DCA with the proposed slot swap between US Airways and Delta, which is now tied up in court. I have to think – does this application really make sense for Southwest when we exclude AirTran? Historically speaking, Southwest has avoided small stations, with only a handful of cities having less than ten daily departures. Having an airport with only one departure is very un-Southwest-y, at least to me.

And, to save the best/most interesting for last – Sun Country is giving this a whirl as well, for flights to Lansing. Why Lansing? Well, the DOT has said that these slots must be used for small or medium hub airports, and Sun Country is considering building up there. But what’s more interesting is that Sun Country is planning for the Lansing flights to originate and end in Minneapolis. So here Sun Country can say they’re providing service to a smaller city while providing new competition with Delta. In terms of the actual application – I’m not entirely sure what was going on here. Sun Country submitted its original application, and then corrected it. Based on the differences in the schedule listed in the appendices of both, it appears that Sun Country originally thought they could run two roundtrips.

What I found very interesting, however, is who didn’t apply. JetBlue said in a March 3 letter to the DOT that it was “prepared to use the two AIR-2l slots immediately,” yet they didn’t apply. I asked them why not, and here’s what they had to say:

JetBlue regrets that DCA remains artificially restricted, and while we are grateful that Congress has begun to shine light on this [with the recent MWAA oversight hearing before the Senate Aviation Subcommittee], acquiring one slot pair, limited to specific cities defined by the government and not by the free market or by JetBlue itself, made such an application economically unfeasible. We look forward to greater access opportunities in the future.

Anyway – that’s just the applications. The airlines have recently submitted their responses to the applications of the competing airlines, and that’s where this really gets fun. Expect a post about those in the next few days.

Meanwhile – also up for grabs are Republic/Midwest’s five slot slides. What is a slot slide, you ask? Basically, each slot is assigned for a time period, but under certain conditions (generally, to boost competition) the DOT will allow an airline to “slide” that slot do another time of the day. The DOT said in its announcement for this proceeding that it “will conduct a separate proceeding with regard to Republic’s five slot slide exemptions at DCA.”

Southwest Announces GSP/CHS Service

Published
by
Dan Webb
on October 21, 2010
in Southwest
. 1 Comment

On Wednesday, Southwest revealed its initial schedule for its new service Greenville/Spartanburg and Charleston, South Carolina, after announcing their intent to serve the two cities back in May. Service will launch on March 13.

Overall, the announced cities aren’t all that shocking – both cities will each get two flights to Midway, and one each to Nashville and Houston. Boths will have Baltimore service as well – with three dailies for Charleston and two for Greenville.

Greenville will also get one flight to Orlando – which I find very interesting because that will put Southwest head-to-head with Allegiant.

When Southwest originally announced this service, I found it very interesting because it looked like what Southwest originally did in the Boston area, avoiding Logan and deciding to fly to Providence and Manchester. These two cities could be used as an alternative to Atlanta and Charlotte for some travelers.

But, that’s not as much of an issue right now, considering that AirTran has flights out of Atlanta (duh) and Charlotte. Which makes me wonder – what were Southwest’s plans for these two cities before and after the merger announcement? Naturally, none of us on the outside know that answers, but it’s certainly an interesting question to ponder.

Looking ahead – Southwest has yet to announce the cities it will serve out of Newark, but those flights should be announced by the end of the year.