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Looking at Fuel Prices

US Airways released an investor update yesterday, and as usual its foretasted fuel prices for the year were included. I decided to compare this to January’s investor update, and the increases are very interesting. In both guidances the airline gave five-cent intervals for price per gallon, so I just averaged the upper and lower bounds of each guidance and then graphed them. The increases are over 15% for the next three quarters:

According it its January 26 guidance, US Airways expected its mainline fuel expense to be $2.996 – $3.051 billion for the year. That’s now been upped to $3.432 – $3.486 billion.

Other airlines are probably seeing similar gains. Which then leads to the question –  how much further flexibility to airlines have with pricing to adjust to any further possible increases in fuel prices.

The Chart of the Day Comes From…

…US Airways, who has abandoned hedging altogether in favor of rolling the dice and paying spot price. So far,  that strategy seems to be working:

President Scott Kirby said yesterday at a conference that hedging was “incredibly expensive,” especially call options. “The premiums for that insruance policy are more expensive than the benefit that you’ve gotten, even when fuel prices have gone up,” he said.

New item on my airplane dork bucket list – I want to interview US Airways execs about this one day. :D

You can find the whole presentation here.

Random Thoughts on Ancillaries

Below is a chart from a December US Airways investor presentation that I stumbled upon over the weekend. It’s clearly obvious that bag fees are the biggest source of ancillary revenue for the airline. Thinking about that brought me to a few questions that I hope are at least slightly coherent:

  • How would this chart look when adjusted for availability? Bag fees are an ancillary fee that can be charged on any US Airways flights, while food, for example, is not.  I would guess bags still come out ahead but I’m interested.
  • I would love to see a chart like this from other airlines. And how do other airlines view the success of ancillary products? For example – does Delta just look at Gogo sales, or has the airline seen increased loyalty due to its wide availability of Wi-Fi?
  • Ancillary items like bag fees were the industry’s big response to oil increases in 2008. Now we’re back to oil over $100 – what can the airlines do now? How much can fares be increased before demand takes a hit?
  • Will we see higher fees? Or could there be new fees? It seems that the airlines have mainly taken away as many free things as possible already, so it would be interesting to see what happens here. And, if we see new ancillary services, how much revenue can they generate?

US Airways’ February Results

US Airways released its February traffic results today, saying that traffic was up 4.1% year-over-year on a 5.3% capacity increase, resulting in a 0.8 point drop in load factor, to 76.8%.

The airline also said that passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increased approximately 10% compared to February 2010, while total revenue per available seat mile was up 9%.

US Airways President Scott Kirby said that “the demand environment during February was exceptionally strong and we believe the run rate PRASM increase US Airways experienced through the end of the month will be sufficient to fully offset the increase in fuel prices reflected in the forward fuel curve as of February 28.”

That statement leads to a couple of (related) questions:

  1. Will US Airways continue to see strong demand?
  2. What happens to fuel prices? (NYMEX April crude was down slightly today, but still higher than it was on February 28.)
  3. If fuel prices continue to rise, how much flexibility does US Airways have to raise fares before there are significant adverse demand effects?
  4. Does US Airways ever start hedging again?

My, How Times Have Changed

A friend sent me this old commercial the other day, which was pretty interesting to watch considering how the big three alliances have now emerged:

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USAir (later Airways, of course) launched a partnership with British Airways in 1993, which is interesting considering that transatlantic alliances were just emerging at the time. For awhile, US Airways even wet leased a few of its 767-200ERs to its then-partner. But US Airways announced in October 1996 that the partnership would be terminated in March the following year “as a result of British Airways’ decision to enter into an alliance with American,” according to its 1996 annual report.

The rest is history, of course.

US Airways Adding 12 A321s This Year to Replace 737 Classics

We’ve known for awhile that US Airways would be taking on 12 A320-family aircraft in the second half of this year and 12 more in the first half of 2012, but we didn’t know much more other than that. Fortunately, the carrier’s investor update released this week reveals some more details.

The airline now reports that all 24 aircraft “will be used to replace the Company’s legacy 737 fleet.”

According to US Airways’ latest fleet plan, all twelve of the aircraft delivered this year will be A321s, with three aircraft coming in the third quarter and the rest in the fourth. These deliveries will bring the A321 fleet to 63 aircraft.

Photo Credit: US Airways.

Meanwhile, the airline’s fleet of 737-300s will shrink by 12 aircraft. Two aircraft will leave in the second quarter, two in the third, with eight more leaving in fourth.

Over the past few years, US Airways’ fleet of 737-300s has shrunk by nearly 75%. At the end of 2005, 75 of the type were in the fleet, with 35 at America West and 40 at US Airways. Now the airline operates only 19 of the type.

In addition to the 737-300 reductions, one 737-400 will also be leaving the US Airways fleet in the fourth quarter, bringing the fleet to 39 aircraft. According to US Airways’ 2009 annual report, all of the airline’s 737 classics are leased.

It appears that the 737 Classics have stuck around a bit longer than originally planned. From US Airways’ 2008 annual report:

At December 31, 2008, we had 91 aircraft with lease expirations prior to the end of 2011. These include lease expirations for 30 Boeing 737-300 and 14 Boeing 737-400 aircraft that are being replaced by Airbus A320 family aircraft to be delivered under the Airbus purchase agreement discussed above.

At the time, US Airways was operating 30 737-300s, so one could assume whole fleet would be gone by the end of 2011.  Meanwhile, 40 737-400s were the fleet at the time, so one would guess that fleet would be down to 26 airplanes by 2011.

In the same 2008 report, the carrier said it planned to take delivery of 72 A320-family aircraft and 10 A330-200s from 2010 to 2012. But in 2009, US Airways deferred 54 of these deliveries, leaving 24 A320-family deliveries and 4 A330-200 deliveries. The airline said in its 2009 annual report that the deferrals would not “significantly alter our capacity as we are currently in the process of extending leases for certain aircraft originally scheduled to be replaced during 2010-2012.”

That annual report said 33, 28, and 26 mainline leases would expire in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. It will be interesting to compare those numbers to US Airways’ 2010 annual report, which should be coming out in a few weeks.

Also – US Airways will be taking on 757-200 this quarter, which will bring the fleet back to 24 aircraft after one left the fleet in 2010.

Anyway, I’m finding it interesting that US Airways selected the A321 here – the A319 and A320 are the closed to the 737-300 and 737-400 in size, so it’s an interesting increase in gauge. It’ll be interesting to see how US Airways plays with these new aircraft, and also what members of the A320 family will be delivered in 2012.

The other thing that interests me – I wonder if US Airways will ever end up with some A320neo aircraft? I would guess that the fact the airline is one of the largest Airbus operators in the world would certainly make them a candidate. I think what could end up answering this question is the capability of the A321neo. The current A321 aircraft has been a great replacement for the domestic 757s, but doesn’t have the legs for US Airways’ Hawaii or European routes operated with 757-200s. I wonder, could the A321neo manage Phoenix – Honolulu, for example?

US Airways CEO Doug Parker talked about new aircraft during the Q&A of the airline’s earnings call, and mentioned that “we have, as some as some other airlines do, a 757 problem,” which is that the aircraft  ”can fly missions that no other airplane can fly” but the type will “need to be retired at that point.”

It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out!


Looking At Some of US Airways’ Latest Numbers

I haven’t spent some quality time with US Airways in a few weeks. So let’s change that! Last week the airline released its monthly traffic numbers and the ever-important revenue estimate, and also issued an investor update with a revised fourth quarter guidance.

In the traffic release, US Airways President Scott Kirby noted that “last two weeks of December presented a challenging operational environment due to snowstorms in Europe and throughout the northeastern part of the U.S.,” but did provide an estimate of the financial impact of the weather like Delta. “The US Airways team did a terrific job of taking care of our customers during this holiday travel period,” he added.

The airline also reported that its consolidated passenger revenue and total revenue per available seat mile were both up 5% compared to December 2009. December load factor on mainline flights was 80.8%, a new record, as traffic increased more than US Airways increased capacity.

Anyway…onto the guidance. I always enjoy looking at investor updates from airlines, especially when they can be compared to earlier reports. For example, in October US Airways predicted it would be paying between $2.35 and $2.40 for jet fuel on its mainline flights,  but that’s been upped slightly from $2.38 to $2.43 in the latest investor update.

It appears that US Airways’ unit cots for the quarter are coming in slightly lower than previously expected. In October the airline said that CASM excluding fuel and profit sharing for the quarter would fall anywhere from -1% lower to 1% higher year-over-year. But now the airline’s low end of the forecast is a 2% decrease, and its high forecast is no growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.

The last thing I found interesting was that the airline’s estimate for non-aircraft capital expenditures for the quarter was roughly cut in half, from $49 million to $24 million. An airline spokeswoman tells me that “this kind of adjustment happens each year, particularly in the last quarter.”

Anyway, that’s some of the latest from US Airways. I’m really interested in what they’ll have to say during their fourth quarter earnings call. The airline is slated receive 12 new A320-family aircraft during the second half of this year, so it will be interesting to hear what the plans are for those. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to creep up. US Airways has been avoiding hedging for the past couple of years. I wonder if any of the more recent price moves will convince them otherwise.

Delta to Launch PVD-DCA

So my friend Rick texts me today and tells me that while looking around some schedules he found Delta nonstops from Providence to Washington National. At first I think he’s yanking my chain, but lo and behold:

Three daily nonstops! Woo! As a Rhode Islander I am very happy.

All of those CRJs are operated by Pinnacle, by the way. Service starts up on April 1 with two flights, and then goes to three the day after.

But this makes sense to me. US Airways has had a chokehold on this market for years. The average fare in the second quarter of this year was $272.28, according to the DOT’s Domestic Airline Fares Consumer Report. That’s a bit cheaper than United charged to IAD ($317.33), but that’s a smaller market.  But that’s more than double Southwest’s average $122.82 to BWI.

Anyway, I’m very happy about this. Delta’s spring schedule for PVD was already pretty impressive year-over-year, with seven Detroit flights by May (granted, it’s still early, but it’s promising).

Other things worthy of note – a quick check of schedules shows that Boston-DCA frequences are being reduced by four flights in April as this service starts up. I wonder how yields have been for US Airways and Delta in that market since JetBlue came in.

But this is certainly interesting, and something that wouldn’t have happened had the slot swap gone through. Delta announced a bunch of routes out of DC in July. This is also interesting as Delta has been adding more O&D routes out of smaller cities like Raleigh.

US Airways Dropping Oslo Service

US Airways will not be resuming seasonal service from its Philadelphia hub to Oslo, Norway. The carrier originally launched the route in the summer of 2009, utilizing its fleet of ETOPS 757-200s. Flights were originally slated to launch on May 8, and the last departure from Philadelphia would operate on September 29.

The flights are still viewable on US Airways’ website, though purchase is no longer possible:

My guess is this route wasn’t one of the strongest in the US Airways international network – and plus Oslo is getting additional capacity to the Eastern US this summer, with SAS launching daily service to Newark. Meanwhile, United is currently scheduled to operate two daily 757s on that route as well.

While it doesn’t look like United and SAS are codesharing on the route, it is worth noting that the two carriers have anti-trust immunity (though SAS is not part of the A++ joint venture), while US Airways is not part of that arrangement.

In other US Airways international news, the airline will be upgrading its Philadelphia – Barcelona route from a 767-200 to an A330-200 starting on May 3. And, as announced a few months ago, the airline will launch seasonal service from Charlotte to Dublin and Madrid in 2011.

The Bachelor: DCA Slot Edition

There are two slots (one pair) up for grabs at Washington National – and a few airlines are fighting over them. Picking up slots at a restricted like National is a rare opportunity, and it’s always interesting to see carriers argue about it. Eventually, the DOT will have to choose who should get them. It’s basically like the TV show The Bachelor, I guess. I’ve never watched it, honestly.

Granted, the applications came in a couple of weeks ago, but I’ve really wanted to blog about this.

First – let’s talk about how these slots became available in the first place. There are slots currently being used by Republic for Kansas City service that was inherited from the Midwest acquisition – and that’s the problem. These slots can’t be transferred. Republic argued last year that they should hold on to the slots, noting how they were keeping the Midwest brand and such, but the DOT disagreed:

After careful review, we have concluded that a “transfer” of exemptions has in fact occurred. Midwest, the party to which the awards were granted, has now ceased to exist as a carrier. Unlike Frontier, which was acquired by Republic but still operates as a subsidiary under its own operating certificate, Midwest clearly no longer holds or operates the exemptions, and Republic’s claim to these exemptions arises only as a result of its transaction with Midwest.

Another interesting mention in the DOT’s letter from November:

Moreover, the fact that Midwest operated relatively few slots was deemed a key factor in its qualifying for award of the slot slide exemptions. When Midwest’s various applications for the five slot slides were considered, the Department noted in approving them that Midwest met a statutory “exceptional circumstances” requirement in part because it had operational limitations due to holding only a limited number of slots at DCA. Based on FAA August 2009 data, we understand that Republic holds over one hundred exemptions at DCA – a fact that clearly distinguishes its current status from that of Midwest when Midwest was awarded the exemptions.

This is an interesting situation for Republic. Of course, those slots are tied up with their US Airways Express operation at DCA. In its application for the slots a few weeks ago (which I’ll be getting into more shortly), Republic argued:

RJET obtained the slots in a sale/leaseback transaction with US Airways in 2005, as a financing mechanism to enable US Airways to raise additional money…US Airways has retained complete control over and has the exclusive right to use the slots. Importantly, although RJET is listed as the holder of record of those slots, Republic has no control over the use of, nor can it sell, the DCA slots. Moreover, US Airways has the right to repurchase the commuter slots at any time.

Anyway – after analyzing the situation, the DOT decided to launch a proceeding to determine what airline should receive the slots. A quick summary of the applications.

Republic, not surprisingly, wants to hold on to the slots for its current Kansas City service. These slots are used for one of the airline’s three Kansas City flights under its branded service. “Failure to grant the slot exemptions to Republic would result in substantial harm to leisure, business, and government travelers, the affected local and beyond communities, and inter-carrier competition,” says the airline in its application. The carrier is “proposing to operate Stage 3-compliant, 99-seat ERJ-190 aircraft between DCA and MCI with these two slot exemptions, effective December 1, 2010″ and adds that “effective December 1, 2010, all three of Republic’s nonstop DCA-MCI services will
be operated with 99-seat ERJ-190 aircraft.” Right now, this is an E-170 route. Just for reference, US Airways also has DCA-MCI service, some of which is provided by Republic.

Next up is AirTran, looking to obtain the slots the slots for service to Ft. Myers (a market it already serves from DCA) or Sarasota. The airline doesn’t commit to an aircraft type, saying it will use either 717s or 737-700s. I just found this application a bit interesting, since in the past AirTran has tried to get the ability to reduce its Ft. Myers service. Meanwhile, US Airways serves both of these markets, but it appears that Ft. Myers flights are seasonal.

Speaking of US Airways, the carrier has tossed its hat in the ring as well, proposing service to Pensacola. This is the “third within perimeter slot allocation proceeding in four years in which US Airways has applied,” the airline notes. Service would be operated with E-175s during the summer and 170s during the winter. “With 99-seat Embraer EMB-190s a part of US Airways’ fleet, US Airways could further increase seats should demand warrant,” US Airways adds.

Southwest has also applied for the slots for its own flights to Kansas City. Had this been a year or two ago, I would’ve been shocked by this application, but the airline publicly showed its interest in DCA with the proposed slot swap between US Airways and Delta, which is now tied up in court. I have to think – does this application really make sense for Southwest when we exclude AirTran? Historically speaking, Southwest has avoided small stations, with only a handful of cities having less than ten daily departures. Having an airport with only one departure is very un-Southwest-y, at least to me.

And, to save the best/most interesting for last – Sun Country is giving this a whirl as well, for flights to Lansing. Why Lansing? Well, the DOT has said that these slots must be used for small or medium hub airports, and Sun Country is considering building up there. But what’s more interesting is that Sun Country is planning for the Lansing flights to originate and end in Minneapolis. So here Sun Country can say they’re providing service to a smaller city while providing new competition with Delta. In terms of the actual application – I’m not entirely sure what was going on here. Sun Country submitted its original application, and then corrected it. Based on the differences in the schedule listed in the appendices of both, it appears that Sun Country originally thought they could run two roundtrips.

What I found very interesting, however, is who didn’t apply. JetBlue said in a March 3 letter to the DOT that it was “prepared to use the two AIR-2l slots immediately,” yet they didn’t apply. I asked them why not, and here’s what they had to say:

JetBlue regrets that DCA remains artificially restricted, and while we are grateful that Congress has begun to shine light on this [with the recent MWAA oversight hearing before the Senate Aviation Subcommittee], acquiring one slot pair, limited to specific cities defined by the government and not by the free market or by JetBlue itself, made such an application economically unfeasible. We look forward to greater access opportunities in the future.

Anyway – that’s just the applications. The airlines have recently submitted their responses to the applications of the competing airlines, and that’s where this really gets fun. Expect a post about those in the next few days.

Meanwhile – also up for grabs are Republic/Midwest’s five slot slides. What is a slot slide, you ask? Basically, each slot is assigned for a time period, but under certain conditions (generally, to boost competition) the DOT will allow an airline to “slide” that slot do another time of the day. The DOT said in its announcement for this proceeding that it “will conduct a separate proceeding with regard to Republic’s five slot slide exemptions at DCA.”