Everyone’s favorite taciturn PR-rep United PR, made an official announcement on FlyerTalk yesterday that United plans to change its domestic upgrade procedure in the second quarter of 2010, by offering unlimited upgrades to elite members. You can read the official announcement, written in typical United Airlines PR-dreck, here, on FlyerTalk.
The change indicates a marked departure from United’s current upgrade scheme, in which any passenger wishing to upgrade must support their upgrade request with an actual upgrade instrument, including 500 mile certificates, regional upgrades, systemwide upgrades, or good old fashioned frequent flyer miles. In the current system, upgrades, therefore, were limited by the number of upgrade instruments one had at their disposal (the more one flies, the more they earn), and further limited by the passenger’s status with the airline, available upgrade space, and whether one could confirm the upgrade immediately. In 2010, United will morph into a more, dare I say, conventional upgrade system. If we define conventional as the way in which most other airlines process upgrades, United joins the group of most other large, legacy carriers (American, Continental, Alaska [not really a legacy carrier, but that smiling eskimo hands out complimentary upgrades], Delta, the erstwhile Northwest) by offering unlimited upgrades to their passengers, by simply entering them into an upgrade queue at the time of booking. In accordance with fare class, status, and space availability, upgrades would be processed automatically. Now, United makes the change.
I’m going to start my thoughts by saying, let’s not panic, people. Let’s try to refrain from rampant speculation, prophetic decrees, and the histrionic calls of the airline apocalypse. Currently, the discussion thread on FlyerTalk has reached over 300 posts, with cries of doom that rival those on Sproul Plaza on the UC Berkeley campus. There’s more drama and woe-is-me type raillery in the thread than in your typical FlyerTalk “I had to sit for more than 15 minutes on a regional jet and I am sooooooo upset” type posts. Remember, folks – we don’t actually know the specifics and the details of the change yet. According to the syrupy PR announcement, we should expect some sort of announcement today from Mileage Plus with more specifics. Until then, let’s try to control ourselves. We may actually be pleasantly surprised by the details of the announcement. I’m having flashbacks to when Southwest announced their decision to bid for Frontier, in which almost every single blogger (yours truly excepted – yes, I am very smug), lambasted and pilloried the deal, generating blog posts and podcasts that deemed Southwest crazy and illogical. Then, when Southwest actually announced some details, and there actually existed some uh, what’s that word – facts available, then, most bloggers reversed their stances, lauding the logic and craft behind the business decision. Is it too much to wait until we have some actual information?
Let’s return to the old maxim of “Don’t just do something – stand there!”
People are reacting to the inkling of news without any real facts with more fervor than a cable news channel.
But – let’s consider some reasons why people might be worried about the decision. Note – these are not speculations, but logical and reasonable questions based on the facts of the current upgrade schemata over various airlines.
1. Will United preserve any iota of their instrument-based upgrading? Instrument-based upgrading allowed (theoretically) instantly-confirmable upgrades, instead of throwing themselves in an auto-queue to fight against other passengers for an upgrade. Some people are wondering whether 1Ks will still earn CR-1 (regional upgrades – and my personal favorite type of upgrade instrument) for every 10,000 miles flown. Preserving instrument upgrades to allow elite members the chance to confirm an upgrade would certainly be a boon for those who rack up the upgrade instruments with thousands upon thousands of flight mile, and provide a bit of personal peace knowing one does not have to enter the upgrade fray.
2. How hard will securing an upgrade become? With unlimited upgrade systems, general logic exists that it’s extremely difficult to secure upgrades, even as a top-status passenger, on transcontinental flights. Continental Airlines is often cited as the primary example – unless you’re buying first class, or their reasonably-priced full fare tickets, you generally ain’t gettin’ an upgrade on the Newark – San Francisco flight. I might be heading into the speculation department, here, but, I could really foresee difficulty upgrading on p.s. flights, Boston – SFO or Chicago – SFO flights, typical flights in United’s sytem that are quite difficult to upgrade, as is. Moreover, with about two billion new 1K members based on what seems like ten months of DEQM promos this year, how adversely will Premier Executive and Premier members be affected by the upgrade lottery? Those folks face a tough-enough upgrade battle currently. It may only get worse for ‘em.
3. Gee, what will it be like if United actually has full F-cabins on all domestic flights? Yeah, I’m wondering how United’s flight attendants will react by having to contend with a full F-cabin on pretty much every flight. With staffing levels cut to FAA minima on most flights, they’re already chugging to handle an even three-quarters full cabin. Man, imagine a full cabin with whiny 1Ks fresh off their unlimited free upgrades. Work will only be harder for already overworked FAs (well, the ones that do actually serve an F-cabin, instead of sitting sour-faced on the jumpseat with the latest issue of US! Weekly and an emery board).
3. Reciprocal upgrades on Continental? Some seem to think that UA is begining to align themselves more and more with Continental as a true partner, as opposed to simply a codeshare buddy, as Continental readies to join the Star Alliance on October 29th. Gee, what can Continental take from UA in the form of reciprocity? Starnet blocking?
4. Will United actually have to start whipping up more of those horrendous omelets? One major gripe from people flying in full first class cabins during breakfast flights, is that United’s catering doesn’t provide enough of those horrendous omelets, the ones made from egg powder, filled with a substance of dubious provenance, and then cooked to the texture of a potholder. Gee, with the amount that 1Ks whine about not receiving first choice of breakfast when flying F (god forbid you might have to eat the more healthful fruit plate), United may have to ramp up their omelet cooking. With United, you can be sure that cooking more of something will mean lowering costs somewhere – and the quality of omelets will become even lower. Yecccch.
5. Can Gary Leff Survive? Everyone’s favorite New Zealand cabinet minister Gary Leff, writer of View From The Wing, very nearly became permanently disfigured as he had to sweat out a transcon from New York on Delta with the masses in economy class. What happens if he can’t confirm an upgrade instantly on UA? As Thomas Jefferson once said, “If Gary Leff must sit in Economy Class, I tremble for my country.”
Most of all, let’s await today’s announcement.